Sadr Calls It Quits

Meanwhile, and still off the subject, the NYT has stuck its fork into Muqtada al-Sadr, leader of last week’s Tet Offensive. Now he’s still not on trial, and his followers are dispersing, but the general uprising that the NYT and others were ready to declare in April has gone out with a whimper.

Fallujah still looks pretty dangerous, and Sistanti still has us by the ‘nads. It’s questionable whether either the U.S. public or the Iraq government will have the will to solve it, but at least the war is back to one front. Has the anti-American insurgency lost most of its steam? That’s the historical verdict on Tet. Note, however, that actual guerrilla attacks and roadside bombings are being replaced by terror bombings, particularly against the Iraqis themselves. That won’t accomplish any political goals for al-Qaeda or Saddam. Their only hope to advance their cause is through a true “peoples’ war” that has the population’s acquiescence or support.

Still, many of the trends are optimistic, especially compared to a month ago. The new government seems to be politically deft and assertive of its new independence. The Iraqis don’t like us (umm, it’s the Middle East . . . ) but do seem to want democracy and are willing to give the government a chance. When the Iraqis actively support their government and oppose the terrorists, and if the goverment is at peace with the rest of the world, we win. They don’t have to love us.

It bears repeating that the road to Camp 51 runs through Fallujah. As long as Iraq is unresolved, we won’t resolve the Korea situation successfully. Failure in Iraq would destroy our credibility and sap us militarily and diplomatically. It would mean the best we could get from our Korea policy is the unacceptable status quo.