The Gilded Cage Theory

Today, we saw the first hard evidence that Kim Jong Il’s picture has indeed been taken down at one important public venue.

I don’t believe this picture would have been taken if Kim’s picture was “out for cleaning.” Nor do I think that Kim himself would have ordered a down-scaling of the personality cult, since that seems inconsistent with the man’s personality and the historical patterns of absolute tyrannies. I doubt that “softening the brand image” of the North Korean government would do anything but tacitly admit the government’s fallibility, which the North Korean government knows very well to be dangerous to its control; nor do I put much credence in official explanations from Pyongyang. There are reports that things have been tense on the streets of Pyongyang, but no evidence suggests a military coup (some units always stay loyal and shoot back) or a general popular uprising.

The theory that still makes some sense to me is that a faction at the very top of the North Korean government may have stripped Kim of his powers and confined him to his gilded cage. While this theory is nothing more than my least favorite except for all of the others, it’s plausible. Under such circumstances, I would not necessarily expect to see the leader of a junta making an announcement on Pyongyang TV. That might quickly get out of control, just as it did in the last days of the USSR. Any group assuming power would want to be certain to consolidate its control before gradually ratcheting down the personality cult, thus gently depriving Kim Jong Il of his pyschological status as the “indispensable man.”

That would also comport with historical practice. During Stalin’s rule, a leader’s descent from power began ever so slowly, usually with a Pravda editorial accusing Comrade Trotsky, Kamenev, Bukharin, Beria, whoever of “mistakes.” This started a chain of increasingly harsh career-discriminating events leading to denunciation, exile, imprisonment, and possibly the firing squad. In Stalin’s time, the removal of photographs was highly symobolic of the loss of power, and went so far as the retouching of group photos to erase the disfavored official from history books.

Kim’s public appearances over the next several months will give us a better idea. Of course, he has a tendency to disappear for extended periods