Nukes Update

NYT story here.

Ban Ki-Moon is telling Condi Rice that North Korea might be bluffing about its nukes. Sure, they might be–I personally don’t believe most of what North Korea says–but given the North’s chosen absence of transparency, at some point we have to make assumptions for strategic purposes. Ban wants us to assume the best, notwithstanding the fact that the evidence points in the other direction. Bits and pieces of evidence that help us make that assumption include a reactor, the presence of North Korean uranium in Libya, proven missile capability, extensive evidence of cooperation with a known nuclear power, and the extraordinary expense an impoverished country took to get to that point. As I’ve mentioned before, the announcement isn’t really news for those who relied on other, external evidence of nuclear possession for about a decade.

Then there’s the question of how much risk of being wrong you’re willing to accept. For South Korea, the apparent answer is “all of it,” even if we’re stuck with it, too.

And the fact that North Korea may not have a delivery system means very little if (1) they have another tunnel under the DMZ, (2) they load a big contraption onto an airplane for a one-way flight, (3) they send it to a harbor on a ship, (4) they build dirty bombs, (5) they move it in components, or most terrifyingly, (6) they sell such a capability to terrorists, or those who would resell to them.

Also from the Times–more signs that the opposition is moving away from Sunshine Lite. South Korea’s next election could turn into a referendum on appeasement after all. If the GNP makes its case persuasively and forthrightly, they might give Korea a real national debate. They shouldn’t omit human rights from that debate.