Sanctions Loom Over North Korea

It’s a sad state of affairs when Ban Ki-Moon is the most realistic person in your cabinet:

Foreign Minister Ban Ki-moon on Friday held out little hope for the success of six-party talks on North Korea’s nuclear program after the Stalinist country said the talks must deal with the disarmament of all participants.

If the six-party talks collapse as Ban expects, the U.S. is likely to take the dispute to the U.N. Security Council immediately, where it was already on the table once in 2003. At the time, Washington pushed for a chairman’s statement denouncing Pyongyang, but the attempt floundered on Chinese opposition. If the U.S. again takes the matter to the Council, China will play the role of the largest variable. If Beijing agrees to sanctions, North Korea will have to choose between international isolation or dismantling its program.

That sounds about right to me, but I don’t expect China to approve of or even abstain from any resolution. Their price is Taiwan, and we won’t pay. That will mean the U.S. will act through the Proliferation Security Initiative, further weakening the U.N. Given that John Bolton set up the PSI in the first place, his presence at the U.N. suddenly takes on new significance.

Speaking of sanctions, by the way, they’re having a significant effect on trade between North Korea and Japan, according to the Joongang Ilbo:

Nearly 400 North Korean-registered freighters arrive here on the east coast of southern Honshu island every year, delivering crabs in exchange for Japanese bicycles and refrigerators. But that was before Japan enacted a new ship insurance law last month blocking uninsured freighters from entering Japanese ports. The law requires that all foreign ships over 100 tons are insured for possible oil spills or wreckage clean-ups. Japanese authorities said the law was not targeted at a specific country. But only 2.5 percent of the North Korean ships are insured, and port authorities expect the amount of North Korean goods imported this year will drop to a quarter of last year’s amount.

“I saw only four North Korean boats last month,” said Nakauye, a deputy manager at a port management union here who only gave his family name. “And three of them were 99-ton vessels.”

. . . .
“After the law was enacted, businesses have avoided trading with North Korea,” said an official from Shintaido maritime transportation. In January 2005, the Japan’s Agriculture Ministry toughened up inspections of goods entering the country, which is also affecting North Korean ships that previously entered Japanese waters. Trade between the two countries declined 40 percent last year compared to 2002, according to Japan’s Ministry of Finance.

You’d think that given the degree of scrutiny on the remaining North Korean shipping traffic with Japan, the North would be on its best behavior. You thought wrong (hat tip: Andrei Lankov).

Nor is Japan the only neighbor tightening up on North Korean trade today. China has banned North Korean poultry imports and tightened border inspections due to the bird flu outbreak in the North.

More on the emerging U.S. strategy of economically isolating the North here.