The Cost of Reunification

The Chosun Ilbo has an interesting piece on the subject. I’m not among those who would try to minimize the cost, although the estimates I’ve read are so diverse that it’s impossible to come up with a statistically significant average. Some have estimated that it would cost a trillion dollars. Others have suggested that the Korean “peace dividend” would pay for it, which I think is simply wrong. Reuinification will mean a dramatic deterioration in security over the short-term, as half a century of pent-up anger, greed, desire, curiosity, and hunger pour out uncontained over the blighted countryside. Think “looting of Baghdad, to the tenth power.” In the event of collapse, large parts of the North Korean security apparatus will melt away overnight. Some will simply shed their uniforms and hide from justice, or from mutinous soldiers. Thousands will desert to escape the misery of military life. Some may remain loyal and fight other units, or against outside occupation forces. The costs of deploying security forces and feeding millions of internally displaced will be enormous.

This is why South Korea ought to be cultivating good relations with the countries in the best position to help it with the crushing cost–Japan and the United States.