Archive for April 2006

Ma Young Ae Update

The Daily NK is offering up some investigative reporting to back up its skepticism about Ms. Ma’s asylum claims. Ms. Ma, a former North Korean counterintel agent who worked in China until her defection in 2000, is petitioning for political asylum in the United States because of alleged South Korean persecution.

Read and decide for yourself, but one point in the Daily NK’s favor: threatening people to silence them is persection; offering them fat bribes to keep quiet (even if true) isn’t. Reports from other refugees suggests other issues with her credibility. One point I found less persuasive was the denial of the government officials. While the Daily NK was right to report the government’s position, that position would only have merited more than a sentence or two had the government officials not denied the story.

Corruption and Malnutrition Sap NK Military’s Morale and Readiness

Required reading for DPRK military watchers, via the Daily NK:

The most serious problem is malnutrition spreading in the North Korean military. Before the food shortage, 800g of rice, 200g of meat was the official amount provided for one day, the soldiers have not been receiving the official amount for more than 10 years. It does not seem to be improving either. Rice has been replaced with corn or potato, and meat is only provided for holidays. Military bases try to run greenhouses and farms, but they fail for the lack of materials and proper management.

A military base where it is announced that Kim Jong Il is visiting, borrows vegetables and meat from nearest villages for “˜food inspection’ and returns them.

Lim Young Soo (25, North Korean defector) who used to be a part of Military Base 407 says, “Only 5 remained in the military among 100 whom I joined the military with. Some died during construction or became handicapped. Some returned home when they were (temporarily) discharged for hardship.

Mr. Lim says, “Even if you are malnourished, without connection, you can’t go home. If you die in the military base, you are buried on the hill”. The comment reveals that malnutrition in North Korea has reached a very serious level.

Read the rest on your own. Related posts here and here.

Daily NK: Gov’t Not Delivering Food Rations

Last fall, when the North Korean government ordered the World Food Program out of the country, I wrote a series of alarmist posts based on the simple syllogism that, since 6.5 million North Koreans depended on WFP aid as of last August, and that the aid was cut off as of last December, that millions of North Koreans were going to go hungry in the months to follow. Last week’s North Korea Freedom Week events gave me the opportunity to ask knowledgeable persons in and out of government about the current state of the food situation. None claimed to have detailed knowledge, but none reported a rise in refugees crossing the Chinese border in search of food, or other ominous reports about a decline in food supplies. This report was the only one that suggested growing food insecurity in some regions.

I had been contemplating writing a post that would happily report that my predictions had been excessively alarmist, but this new report from the Daily NK gives me some pause:

On the 23rd, North Korean sources said that from April only some areas of Pyongyang have gotten rations, and local areas were already cut. Greeting the Workers’ Party Foundation Day (10.10) last year, North Korea restarted rationing, yet from the beginning, the rationing did not advance as planned, and furthermore, from this spring even Pyongyang has undergone a severe shortage of food.

Mr. Kim, who is a North Korean trader and now stays in Dandong, China said, “Officials working at the central agencies now (the Party, Ministries, Court) in Pyongyang have gotten rations, but workers working in general factories and small companies in local cities have to resolve their April and June’s food portions themselves.

Predictably, the hunger is having a disproportionate impact:

Mr. Kim stated, “Despite a severe shortage of food, some wealthy, powerful people are persisting well. Yet other people who rely on the food rationing of factories mainly go to local areas to exchange food with goods. It led to a situation where North Koreans have to withstand starvation by all means, before new potatoes come out.

The Daily NK even has the remarkable ability to track the sharply rising price of food on the black market.

Rice prices at Jangmadang of Shinuiju are traded at 1,000 won($0.33) to 1,200 won($0.4) per 1kg, and Yongcheon rice (yielded in Yongcheon) at 1,200 won per 1kg. Chinese rice is 900 won($0.3) to 930 won($0.31) per 1kg, and corn is 300 won($0.1) to 400 won($0.133). Shinuiju rice is a little more expensive than that of other cities, and its wheat flour is cheaper. It is because rice comes in from other cities, and Chinese wheat flour is distributed to each city via Shinuiju.

Rising black market prices, the sale of valued possessions, and the slaughter of draft animals are all initial signs of famine that observers should watch for. The entire report is a must read, and it suggests that North Koreans coped with the reduced food supply through the winter, but that coping strategies are nearly exhausted.

In fact, famine has taught North Koreans how to hoard and gather food, and generally, to survive on fairly meagre assets. The same is no doubt true on both governmental and indivual levels. What’s more, I tend to believe that while officials in Pyongyang range between apathetic and malignant when it comes to feeding North Korea’s least-favored regions and classes, persons with detailed knowledge of North Korea (Andrew Natsios and Andrei Lankov, to name two) report that local officials often try to get food into the bellies of the hungry. Thus, the government’s response can’t be viewed as monolithic, although the overall effect of national policies is the use of food as a weapon of political cleansing. Finally, North Korea’s food situation probably varies dramatically by region, due to geographic favoritism (click and scroll down for map) and the awful quality of North Korea’s transportation network (it’s easier to send food from Nampo on the West coast to Chongjin in the east by ship than by road or rail).

New famine or not, millions of North Koreans are on the precipice of starvation and will be stunted for life without a swift influx of food aid. All the more reason for China and South Korea to stop abetting the regime’s discriminatory distribution by giving their food aid without any effective monitoring.

It’s moments like this one when I’m exceptionally proud to be affliated with the Daily NK (I occasionally submit pieces to them — of course, without compensation). What other media outlet would be able to compile such a detailed report? It’s an outstanding example of North Koreans finding their own increasingly independent voice. Their reports could help raise the alarm internationally and save many lives by doing so.

Can We Save This Man?

A 43-year-old political prisoner in North Korea is expected to be executed this weekend, and human rights groups in Seoul and around the world are trying to save the man’s life.

In Seoul, 23 South Korean human rights groups yesterday submitted a petition to the National Human Rights Commission. They are seeking its assistance to stop the execution of Son Jeong-nam, who is being detained in Pyongyang by the North Korean State Security Department, said his younger brother, Jeong-hun, who defected to the South in 2002.

Son Jeong-hun said at a news conference earlier this month that North Korean authorities announced that his brother will be publicly executed for “betraying the nation.”

The brothers met each other in China in 2004. After Son Jeong-nam returned to the North, he was arrested and accused of providing information about rights abuses by the North Korean regime to his South Korean brother.

Link here. At the outset, I’ll say that we probably can’t, and that we ought to try anyway. Please send three quick e-mails; one to your Congressman and one to each Senator. While you’re at it, please ask your Senators about House Concurrent Resolution 168, which deals with those abducted by North Korea. It’s been stalled in the Senate for a year now.

Time Asia on the Underground Railroad

My biggest regret of my recent trip to Korea was that I wasn’t able to sit down and talk with the Rev. Tim Peters at length. Tim is one of the kindest, most selfless, most sincere people I’ve met in my life. He told me to watch for this piece in Time, which begins with this refugee woman’s description of the guard who killed her unborn baby:

Hwang, Kim says, referred repeatedly to the baby as “the Chink,” because the father was a peasant from northeastern China, where Kim had fled earlier that year. As she lay on the prison floor, Hwang demanded that she abort the fetus herself. Kim refused, so the guard began kicking her over and over again in the stomach. Then he beat her, and continued beating her as her sister screamed, until Kim Myong Suk blacked out. When she regained consciousness, she says, she “was taken to a clinic in the camp, and in the most blunt manner, they removed [the fetus] from my body.”

The rest of the piece focuses on how refugees are smuggled out of the North, and China. It gives fresh insight on “defection brokers,” who are often villified by the South Korean authorities. Must reading, and a great graphic here. You can visit the Family Care Foundation, which helps fund the underground railroad, here. I have zero qualms about endorsing this one.

(Photo Cred: PHILIP BLENKINSOPÑAGENCE, TIME)

NK Freedom Week 2006, Part II

The events have not yet concluded, and an all-night prayer vigil at the Chinese Embassy is underway. For various reasons, all of us missed the first half of the week. In my case, that was due to a family visit to South Korea (observations to follow later). Still, the events that are capable of being described at a forum like this one can be described now.

Here is the week’s enduring image, one that creates a hopeful contrast to when this little girl stood crying as Chinese guards tried to haul them away from an embassy and across the North Korean border. The reality, as we were repeatedly reminded, is less hopeful in the wake of China’s callous and blatantly unlawful deportation of Kim Chun Hee, but America shows some signs that it is finding some political will on North Korea.

The Bigger Picture

Political movements have specific political goals. The means by which they are achieved are secondary to the progress toward those goals’ achievement, and in this case, that’s a good thing, because the progress on ends outran the progress on means.

Those participating in North Korean Freedom Week sought a diverse set of ends — the return of abducted loved ones, sanctuary for refugees, the ending of human rights abuses in the North, and for some, the complete transformation of North Korea’s political system. None of those goals is perceptably closer to being accomplished, but none of these was really the immediate objective of this week’s events. Instead, the common goal of this coalition of diverse interests was the adoption of policies that would pressure — rather than appease — North Korea, either toward the acceptance of specific concessions, or toward its extinction should it continue to refuse them. Not a few of us openly favor the second goal over the first, believing it more likely to achieve the specific ends.

Tangible Political Progress

Thursday’s hearings, Friday’s meetings with President Bush, and Friday’s public statements at the Capitol rally suggest progress toward that limited goal. Statements from U.S. officials show clear movement toward the adoption of harder-line positions toward the North. There is perceptably less concern about giving diplomatic offense to North Korea. There is perceptably less denial that the goal of the U.S. Government is to subvert the North Korean regime, as evidenced by some strong statements by the Executive Branch and its head about increasing subversive broadcasts into the North.

Congress has had it with the State Department’s failure to implement the North Korean Human Rights Act of 2004. Republican Representative James Leach of Iowa had this to say about his co-partisans in the Administration:

The Act, which was a key legislative initiative of this Committee, was intended to promote human rights, humanitarian transparency, and refugee protection for the people of North Korea. As emphasized in our last two oversight hearings and a February letter to Secretary Rice, many in Congress have been dissatisfied with the pace and extent of the implementation of that law. As of today, the United States still has not accepted a single North Korean refugee for domestic resettlement, notwithstanding the requirements of Title 3 of the Act. Similarly, the Administration has not requested a specific appropriation for any of the activities authorized by the Act. We hope that Special Envoy Lefkowitz will have more encouraging news to share on these fronts, and we look forward to hearing his plans for the months ahead.

Ditto Rep. Chris Smith, and plenty of other members from both parties. Lefkowitz, placed in the difficult position of defending the actions of those over whom he has little apparent influence, was contrite both at the hearing and at today’s rally. He is promising progress on appropriations and refugees “very, very soon.” The preponderance of evidence is that State has at least temporarily lost the battle to delay NKHRA implementation, probably as a result of North Korea’s own behavior and a misplaced hope that some pressure on North Korea might still lead to Agreed Framework II. Still, I remain skeptical until we see tangible and substantial results.

The North Korean defector community, whose efforts at political organization and unity continue to lag, has sprouted several fiercely independent media outlets. Those outlets are increasingly effective at trafficking information in and out of North Korea. They are beginning the kind of open discourse around which a new North Korean political culture will coalesce.

Amb. Lefkowitz was obliged to emphasize the importance of increased radio broadcasting into the North both at Thursday’s hearing and today’s rally, under withering congressional pressure. Rep. Chris Smith, clearly frustrated, demanded to know the status of a long-overdue classified report on getting sources of information into the hands of the North Korean people (see Section 104(c)). Lefkowitz initially confused the report with a different required report. As it turned out, he didn’t appear to know its status. The fact that President Bush also met with Kim Seung Min of Free North Korea Radio was indicative of the increasingly subversive direction of U.S. policy.

International pressure on North Korea will continue to increase, and that will raise the costs of South Korea and China enabling the North. This fall, another resolution will be offered at the U.N. General Assembly condemning the North’s human rights record. On Thursday, Amb. Lefkowitz called on South Korea to support the next resolution, saying, “We hope our friends and allies in the region will join us in condemning” the North’s human rights record. Today, he stated that China’s rulers had acted in “flagrant disregard” for their obligations under the 1951 Refugee Convention and its 1967 Protocol, both of which China has signed.

Amb. John Bolton, who is clearly sympathetic to the idea of pressuring the North to improve conditions for its people, was unable to attend because Iran continues to demand his attention. Bolton sent the following statement instead:

Dear Friends,

Initially, let me thank you for the warm invitation to attend your rally here today. I regret not being able to attend to stand together in solidarity for a cause we all believe so much in. Unfortunately, another founding member of the “Axis of Evil” requires my attention here in New York with the just released report by the International Atomic Energy Agency on Iran. Rest assured, though, my commitment to human rights not just in North Korea, but across the globe remains unwavering.

Through the courageous work of organizations like the Defense Forum Foundation, the world is becoming increasingly aware of the tragedy that is unfolding in North Korea. North Korea may be one of the most isolated countries, but that does not mean the world should care any less about the people of North Korea whol live under the tyrannical hand of one of the most repressive regimes on the planet. We must all work together to keep the spotlight on regimes like North Korea which places their own people in concentration camps for crimes no geater than an aspiration to live freely.

The Defense Forum Foundation has given voice to many of the defectors who managed to escape North Korea. In encourage you to listen to their chilling stories of torture and abuse perpetrated by the current regime. As difficult and painful as it may be to hear those stories, we must do all we can to amplify the voices who know first hand the horrors of being a political prisoner in one of North Korea’s death camps.

Please know that while I am not with [you] in person today, I am certainly with you in spiriti. Iran, like North Korea, has defied the will of the international community and violated their international obligations by pursuing an illiciti nuclear weapons program. It is no small coincidence that these two rogue states also happen to be two of the world’s most notorious abusers of human rights. And while I work today to help bring about an end to the threat to international peace and security posed by Iran, know that it is part of my broader mission to promote freedom and democracy everywhere, including North Korea.

I look forward to standing with you soon, hopefully at a rally celebrating the freedom of the people of North Korea after they have broken free from the chains of oppression and the reign of terror they currently live under.

Sincerely,

John R. Bolton

This, of course, is pining for regime change without quite calling for it. I’m among those who hope Amb. Bolton will be tasked with calling for it soon.

Three other speeches were also outstanding. Former liberal Democratic congressman Stephen Solarz delivered a powerful speech, almost completely without notes (this astonished me; I asked him for a copy of his text for publication, and she showed me one page of scrawled notes). Solarz described having been the first U.S. congressman to visit North Korea since the 1953 armistice, and talked of how Kim Il Sung had looked him in the eye and lied to him that his country hadn’t the slightest intention of engaging in any nuclear enrichment. Solarz took issue with the description of North Korea as a member of the Axis of Evil, saying that it would be more appropriate to describe North Korea as the very embodiment of evil. Ouch. I wish I could show you the whole thing.

Rabbi Abraham Cooper compared contemporary apathy about North Korea to that during the Holocaust, and included these powerful words.

Heed well the lessons of history: you, who like Hitler murders innocents in gas chambers; whose scientists treat human beings as disposable guinea pigs; you, who like Stalin, created a vast gulag; who manipulated food supplies to starve real and imaginary enemies.

Remember — Hitler is gone but our people live on!

Remember — the Soviet Union is no more!

Rabbi Cooper is an excellent speaker; the only sour note was his use of “Kim Il Sung” when he clearly meant “Kim Jong Il.” Henry Hyde also sent an excellent, very long statement. I’ll try to get it and publish it in its entirety.

It’s appropriate to state here that Suzanne Scholte of the North Korean Freedom Coalition is almost single-handedly responsible for coordinating those successes. Suzanne is clearly at her best as an essentially uncompensated lobbyist for the North Korean people.

The Smaller Picture

It becomes intuitive to believe that political goals in America tend to be achieved through public relations campaigns, grassroots organization, and big demonstrations. And while we’ve made progress toward achieving our goals, we’re clearly still lacking when it comes to the “usual” means of achieving them. Turnout at the rally was disappointing: between 150 and 200 people, depending on who was speaking. This raises an issue of media coverage, as the Chosun Ilbo reports:

Meanwhile, events of a “North Korean Freedom Week” came to an end on “North Korea Freedom Day” Thursday in front of the Capitol in Washington attended by some 1,000 activists and Korean-Americans.

I’m sorry to be the one to have to say that this report isn’t even remotely credible, as much as I wish it were otherwise. I was there. I counted the people. Enough said. This editorial, on the other hand, raises some valid points, presuming that the facts it reports are more accurate.

The one bright spot: this figure does not include a very impressive media presence, which included all the major U.S., South Korean, and Japanese TV networks. A few of the South Korean and Japanese journalists were even wearing the T-shirts the North Korean Freedom Coalition handed out for the event.

The crowd seemed marginally larger than last year’s, though well short of the 2004 turnout. It was also a younger crowd than last year’s, which seemed dominated by old South Korean emigres. This year, the Japanese contingent — including politicians, family members, and interested others, was the component whose presence seemed to have increased the most. It’s too bad the crowds weren’t bigger; the statements were generally good, and didn’t run too long.

Contrast this to coverage of Darfur today. Sunday is likely to bring thousands of people to the mall for protest atrocities in Darfur. George Clooney and Elie Wiesel will speak. Fox News covered the story in detail and read a Web site URL on its evening news broadcast. Five members of Congress were arrested at the Sudanese Embassy. That’s impressive, and while Darfur is certainly a very worthy cause, the situation in North Korea is no less worthy of the public’s outrage.

I don’t mean to seem pessimistic here; we’re planning to incorporate what we’ve learned for more events in the near future. We’re handicapped, in large part, by the presence of dry and morbid facts and the absence of emotive pictures. It may well be that when you tell people that the North Korean regime is evil, abusive, and murderous, the general reaction is something on the order of, “Well, duh.” There’s not much about that point that’s controversial, and without controversy, you tend to attract less passion. My observation about this issue, however, is that people who know about the reports of concentration camps, gas chambers, infanticides, and engineered famines become very passionate. The more videotapes are smuggled out of North Korea, the more true this will be.

So clearly, there is a reservoir of unharnessed political energy here. Harnessing it requires us to find cogent ways to tell people what’s really happening in North Korea. There are several ways in which we can do this more effectively:

1. We need to learn to use media more effectively. That includes both relations with news media and making more effective use of advertising. Part of this is simply a matter of having more time. We’re learning, but didn’t learn soon enough to disseminate our message more widely. But there’s still much more we have to learn. Several of us are reaching out to other, more experienced, better funded groups that can help draw the big crowds and the donations that will help draw bigger crowds. One area where we could do much better: becoming more imaginative about inexpensive, nonviolent publicity stunts that capture the public’s imagination and media attention.

2. We have to work together. There are a number of dynamic groups working on North Korean human rights, but they’re not doing a good job of working together. The promising start of 2004 shows what happened when the NK Freedom Coalition, LiNK, and some of the Japanese and South Korean groups worked together. That confluence showed itself on one other occasion that I observed, which was the Freedom House conference in Washington in July 2005. Together, these groups form a significant force that can gather good media coverage and attract the notice of policy makers. Separately, these groups can do one or the other, but not both.

(Photo Creds: Jason Reed, Reuters.)

N. Korea Freedom Week Updates

First, please join us on the West side of the U.S. Capitol today, starting at 11:30. The rally will last well into the afternoon, with plenty of opportunities to frighten powerful and cynical people throughout the day. Some of us may even make a special appearance at the South Korean Embassy later this afternoon. At 6 PM, Suzanne Scholte of the North Korean Freedom Coalition will lead a rally at the Chinese Embassy that will become an all-night prayer vigil.

Hearing on Abductees. Thursday’s first event was a hearing before the House International Relations Committee, Asia-Pacific Affairs Subcommittee, on North Korean abductions. The testimony was too detailed and too emotional to do justice here, but two particular moments stuck with me.

The first came when Sakie Yokota, mother of abductee Megumi Yokota, described meeting a North Korean ex-spy who had first-hand knowledge of Megumi’s abduction at age 13, in 1977. Megumi was shoved into a small, dark, lower-deck compartment of a North Korean spy ship, where she cracked at the steel with her fingernails and cried, “Mother, please rescue me!” Mrs. Yokota’s voice broke as she described this, and as she held up a remarkable photo of her daughter taken in North Korea showing Megumi looking hollow and despondent. Mrs. Yokota spoke of caressing the photo and begging her daughter’s forgiveness for not rescuing her. There wasn’t a dry eye in the room.

I was also moved by the determination of a tiny South Korean woman, Ms. Lee Mi-Il, whose father was one of the reported 82,000 South Koreans abducted by the North during the war and never allowed to return. She lives to tell her father of how she survived and persevered despite being severely handicapped by childhood disease, and of the love of her mother, who waited faithfully for a husband who never came home. The hearing was packed; those who arrived late had to observe the first parts of the testimony from an overflow room, via video link. You can see the testimony via Internet here.

Others present were visibly affected by First Lieutentant Cho Chang-Ho’s description of 44 years of North Korean captivity. I had previously heard Lt. Cho give a much more detailed description last year. What the man survived, both physically and emotionally, is stunning.

Meeting with POTUS. Later today, Mrs. Yokota will reportedly meet with President Bush. I overheard, but can’t yet confirm, that Han-Mi, the little girl in the pink coat made famous in this photograph, will also attend with her mother. Han-Mi is now four, very cute, and feeling a bit overexposed by this week’s events. This is another good sign of a belated U.S. policy evolution, following the Kang Chol Hwan meeting last year.

N. Korean Human Rights Act Implementation. Congress is no longer merely frustrated over slow implementation of the NK Human Rights Act; it’s livid. Amb. Jay Lefkowitz faced severe questioning and criticism at the press conference and the preceding hearing from Rep. James Leach, Iowa, the Asia-Pacific Subcommittee Chairman, and from Rep. Chris Smith of New Jersey. Rep. Betty McCollum of Minnesota, a Democrat, had the temerity and insight to ask Amb. Lefkowitz how much of his time is even spent on North Korean human rights each week (he’s a part-time “special employee” and works at a private law firm the rest of his time). The question clearly jarred Lefkowitz, who reponded with “25-30 hours.” McCollum responded that at least in Japan, this was perceived as a sign of the administration’s incomplete dedication to the issue. Other harsh criticism followed at the press conference, via Rep. Joe Pitts, Rep. Ed Royce, and Rep. Adam Schiff of California, also a Democrat.

Radio Broadcasting. A press conference following Thursday’s hearing focused on the $2M of unspent money authorized but never appropriated to help North Koreans get outside sources of information. Without U.S. help, Kim Seung Min, Director of Radio Free North Korea, continues to expand his broadcasting operations despite the lack of any government support and a spate of hacks. Unfortunately, that means they are up to just 1 hour on short wave per day, plus Internet broadcasts that probably reach very few North Koreans. They eventually plan to go medium wave, too.

Radio Free North Korea depends entirely on private contributions. Unfortunately, their site is in Korean only. No doubt, they’d appreciate some competent help in that area. I can’t stress the importance of this project, and my own frustration that the U.S. government has been so dilatory in supporting it. Another radio service for North Korea is Open Radio for North Korea. Its director, Young Howard, was also present for this week’s events.

In response to my question, Mr. Kim reported no South Korean government action to shut them down, although he claims that North Korea pointedly asked for just that in recent N-S ministerial talks. Kim does report that Radio Free North Korea was hacked on two recent occasions. On 10 February, their site was hacked and replaced by [pro-North Korean?] propaganda. On 7-10 April, a spate of hack attacks originating in Australia, China, and Japan briefly shut down their server. Let’s hear it for tolerant progressivism!

The press conference was moved up to accomodate a very powerful hearing that preceded it. Unfortunately, a few members of the media didn’t get the word (the place was packed with journalists anyway; the breaking Sakie Yokota story probably explains most of that). Feel free to drop a comment here if you’d like a copy of my notes.

Wreath Laying. Gordon Cucullu emceed a small but touching ceremony, where the Exile Committee for North Korean Democracy, hosted by a local leader of the Korean War Vets’ Association, laid a wreath at the Korean War Memorial on the Mall. The small group grew larger as it attracted the attention of interested passersby. We quickly exhausted a fairly robust supply of leaflets for today’s rally. One of the North Koreans present defected across the DMZ while I was serving, and it was very gratifying to meet with a former enemy, now turned friend. My limited Korean didn’t fail me. It was just a nice moment.

North Korean Opposition. Overall, it hasn’t developed any obvious political agenda that can serve as an alternative to Kim Jong Il. It won’t attract significant support until it has that, plus dynamic and honest leaders. I’m guardedly optimistic that the Exile Committee seems to have caught on to Hwang Jang Yop’s personal unpopularity and seems to be finding a voice of its own. It will have to do more. My own personal belief is that Hwang is a major political liability. And of course, just behind the scenes, there is the predictable bickering and factionalism, which can have the effect of blinding everyone to the shared goal. Political parties in free societies bicker, too, of course. The delicate balance between compromise and principle is a one of the most difficult balancing acts of any democratic society.

Update:

White House spokesman Scott McClellan at a daily briefing said the issue is a “very high priority” for President George W. Bush. “[It is] something he brings attention to every time he sits down and meets with a world leader,” he said.
. . . .

At talks with Chinese leader Hu Jintao last week, President Bush called on Pyongyang’s ally to live up to its international obligations on handling these refugees. Mr. McClellan said Pyongyang is a “repressive regime” that violates human rights.

Hu Jintao Visit: A Diplomatic Fiasco; Bush Raises Refugee Issue


The meeting, the first at the White House between the men since Mr. Hu became China’s top leader in 2002, was plagued by gaffes that upended months of painstaking diplomacy over protocol and staging.

For millions of Americans, and for unknown numbers of Chinese able to penetrate the Great Firewall, the enduring image of Hu Jintao’s visit will not be the 21-gun salute he got, or the full state dinner he did not get, but the face of this Falun Gong protestor, Epoch Times press pass in hand, who spent nearly a full minute haranguing the Chinese dicator. Hu, a stolid and humorless man, was visibly jarred by confronting a citizen who dared express her discontent. The experience appears to have been a new one for Hu. Via the Washington Post:

“President Hu! Your days are numbered,” she shouted. “President Bush! Stop him from killing!” A startled Hu paused until Bush leaned over and encouraged him to continue. “You’re okay,” Bush assured Hu.

No wonder some of the papers described the incident has having lasted more than one minute. It must have seemed eternal. Awkward, to say the least. The White House later apologized, which I suppose was obligatory, but the damage was done. The Chinese, probably projecting, presume the existence of deceit.

(Having sneaked into a couple of allegedly secure events myself, I can verify that “secure” events often aren’t, although a minute is admittedly a long damn time to heckle a dictator. Some kind of record may have been set.)

It does not end there, reports the NY Times.

But Chinese Foreign Ministry officials traveling with Mr. Hu canceled an afternoon briefing. One delegation member, speaking on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to discuss the subject publicly, described his superiors as outraged by the breach.

Compounding the gaffe, a White House announcer introducing the national anthems at the same ceremony mistakenly referred to China as the Republic of China, which is the formal name of its archrival, Taiwan.

Ouch.

On North Korea, the Post reports:

In private, aides said, Bush raised the case of a North Korean asylum seeker, Kim Chun Hee, who was deported back to her homeland despite Chinese obligations under U.N. refugee conventions. He asked again about a list of Chinese political prisoners that he first gave Hu during a meeting at the United Nations in September and gave a new list of six detainees he hopes will be released. But Bush did not mention the persecution of Falun Gong, even with hundreds of its followers outside the White House banging drums, holding up banners and chanting, “Stop the killing, stop the torture.”

… as foreshadowed by James’s post of the other day. Indications that Hu will respond constructively: zero. The LA Times adds more, mostly on North Korea’s ongoing refusal to show up for nuclear talks. Nobody seems to have walked away happy, and with a determined new U.S. policy taking shape, U.S. officials suggest hearts and minds aren’t the regions where the vise will squeeze. China appears unwilling to help; the United States appears willing to proceed anyway.

[It] was clear that Hu left Bush unsatisfied on his request for help to restrain the nuclear ambitions of Iran and North Korea.

Bush told reporters that in his Oval Office meeting with Hu, he had asked the Chinese president to use his leverage to win greater cooperation from neighboring North Korea, which has refused to rejoin stalled six-nations talks on its nuclear program.

On North Korea, Hu pointed out to Bush that the government in Pyongyang was unhappy with “defensive steps” the United States had taken to try to halt the regime’s alleged counterfeiting of U.S. currency and alleged drug trafficking.

“I hope the parties will be able to further display flexibility, work together and create the necessary conditions for the early resumption of talks,” Hu said.

Derek Mitchell, who was a senior advisor on Asia at the Pentagon during the Clinton administration, said he doubted the visit would mollify those in Congress who were unhappy with China.

“What they respond to is action,” said Mitchell, now a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. “The commitment to economic reform that Hu made on the lawn won’t have any effect unless action follows it.”

As much as I’d like to think this series of disasters really was churlishness by miffed U.S. officials, my gut tells me this was really a case study in amateurish diplomacy.

Earth to Korea: Nobody Cares About Tokdo. You’re Making Total Asses of Yourselves Over Nothing.

In the face of Pyongyang’s furious protest, the Seoul government indicated it would return to “quiet diplomacy” on North Korean refugees . . . .
UPI, Aug. 17, 2004

On the human rights issue in North Korea, [Prime Minister Han Myeong-Sook] stated that “the government deals with improving the North Korean human rights record and maintaining peace on the Korean peninsula with actions rather than words,” and went on to say that “providing humanitarian aid to the North is an effort to improve human rights record in the North in regard to livelihood.
The Donga Ilbo, April 18, 2006

The two Koreas may discuss the threatened incursion of a Japanese research vessel into Korea’s exclusive economic zone during the inter-Korean ministerial talks starting in Pyongyang this Friday.
The Chosun Ilbo, April 18, 2006

I am the third among my co-bloggers to talk about the latest offensive in Operation Tokdo Freedom©, which may be a reflection of the fact that I don’t give two shits who actually owns Tokdo/Takeshima/Liancourt Rocks. You could give it to Kim Jong Il to test his expanding nuclear arsenal for all I care. Some things worth dying for, but Tokdo isn’t on any reasonable person’s list of them. Late word is that Japan may put off the hydrographic survey that’s caused the latest drama, hopefully past the next South Korean election.

The issue is fascinating in one way, however. The “quietness” of South Korea’s diplomacy with its neighbors seems inversely proportional to both the number of lives at stake and the tendency of its interlocutor to prefer to resolve disputes peacefully.

Some Perspective, Please

Whether it matters or not, however, Tokdo is what everyone is talking about in Seoul today, not the half of Korea that’s starving, enslaved, and oppressed by a despotic dynasty three centuries an anachronism. Not today’s comfort women in the brothels of Dalian, hostages to the empty bellies of their babies. Not South Koreans abducted and held against their will in a prison state. Not the Chinese colonization of the port at Rajin and the railroad that leads from there to the Chinese border. Not the decline of Korea’s alliance with the United States, which had brought half of Korea to an era of unprecedented freedom, prosperity, and cultural revitalization.

Not any of these things, but Tokdo, an uninhabited, windswept, unarable pile of crap-encrusted rocks halfway between Japan and Korea, of little use to either except as a political symbol of the nations’ mutual antipathy. The only crop that will ever be harvested from the rocks of Tokdo is demagoguery.

Why I Don’t Care: The Long Version

Suddenly, all talk in Korea seems to be about Tokdo. No one dares question whether Tokdo is worth threatening hostilities with a more powerful neighbor and trading partner, so let me be the first. There is really only one resource Tokdo could possibly offer — other than guano — and that’s the surrounding fisheries. That presumes, of course, that Tokdo would somehow expand the boundaries of South Korea’s exclusive economic zone. Not the case, according to this site, which incidentially concedes that South Korea has the better claim to the barren rocks themselves:

Because these islets are physically large “rocks,” which have not been inhabited in a continuous fashion until the recent military-type occupation, under the rule laid down in Article 121(3) of the Law of the Sea Convention they probably should not be entitled to generate an exclusive economic zone or a continental shelf, and their maritime zone should thus be limited to a 12-nautical-mile territorial sea enclave.[12] Except for their own territorial-sea enclave, therefore, they probably should not affect the delimitation of the exclusive economic zone and continental shelf between South Korea and Japan.

What I suspect, but could find no evidence to prove, is that Tokdo’s distance from any South Korean port would likely mean that the costs of fuel would make fishing there prohibitively expensive.

This Means War!

Having expended this energy explaining the reasons I don’t care about Tokdo, I shift to the vitriol that South Koreans are expending over it as a Japanese maritime research vessel prepares to survey the nearby seabed. As a result, outraged Koreans are calling for measures that the unnecessary and very possibly deliberate mass starvation of millions of North Koreans apparently did not warrant.

There is a growing feeling in government circles that Korea’s so-called “silent” diplomacy toward Japan has had its day after news that Tokyo is planning to send a research vessel into the country’s exclusive economic zone near Dokdo. They want an end to the consensus that the national interest is best served by ignoring Japan’s low-level provocations over the East Sea islets it covets.

Just how far might things go?

A meeting of ministers on Monday decided that if any incursion happens, Korea is within its rights to seize the vessel. Some are even saying that Seoul needs to expel Japanese Ambassador Shotaro Oshima, since the provocation is not an isolated event but merely the latest in a long line.

Will cooler heads prevail? Not bloody likely unless they have addresses in Tokyo. Korea’s president, the lamest of ducks and in desperate need of an issue with which he can define himself, had this to say:

President Roh Moo-hyun told a meeting with ruling and opposition party representatives on Tuesday, “While we have been conducting a silent diplomacy for several years, Japan has been shifting to the offensive. If a Japanese government vessel intrudes into our exclusive economic zone, we have no alternative but to regard it as an act of invasion.” The Korea Coast Guard has decided to deploy 18 patrol vessels to stop the Japanese vessel from intruding.

Roh’s Foreign Minister says this:

In a classic “who blinks first” standoff, Foreign Minister Ban Ki-moon warned yesterday that Tokyo would be responsible for the consequences if it moved ahead with a seabed-mapping voyage to waters near Dokdo, off Korea’s east coast.

Emphasis mine. The Chosun Ilbo, flagship of the Korean conservative oppostion press, fulminates:

The plan in Tokyo has long been to eventually take the Dokdo issue to the International Court of Justice. The tactic would use the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea, where the conflict mechanism is simple, as a stepping stone. The planned hydrographic survey in seas near Dokdo is a small part of the big picture.
. . . .

If the government is so incompetent, the people must take over. Each citizen must make it clear that they are willing to safeguard the Dokdo islets and repel Japan’s stealthy invasion.

That could easily be understood as a call for individual acts of violence. So much for the peaceful resolution of disputes and what’s left of global respect for the South Korean people. The Korea Times touts this as inter-party unity against a common enemy, but it’s really a competition among multiple factions of several parties, each trying to out-demagogue the others, even if it means that people will die needlessly. And as an apparent offering to bloggers with a taste for irony, they added a footnote:

The two parties also agreed to form another special parliamentary panel aimed at encouraging the reconciliatory atmosphere on the Korean Peninsula, which will also deal with North Korean human rights issues.

Here’s to quiet diplomacy.

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If, unlike me, you actually give a flying fuck about who actually owns Tokdo/Takeshima, I recommend what The Flying Yangban has already said on the matter. This piece in the Korea Times has some in-depth discussion about the legal status of the disputed boundary between the exclusive economic zones.

Map Credits: The Korea Times

Photo: The Donga Ilbo

Chosun Ilbo on NK Freedom Week

I’ve tried to do what I could to help with North Korean Freedom Week this year, so it’s encouraging to see the Korean press covering it. Any excuse to remind readers to join us next week will suffice. In fairness, however, I’m not sure that the Washington Post actually reported that Bush will raise the issue of North Korean refugees with Hu Jintao, as the Chosun Ilbo claims. Obviously, I hope that turn out to be the case.