Must Read: International Crisis Group on N. Korean Refugees
It’s probably the most comprehensive and detailed report I’ve yet seen on the subject, and from a non-partisan and balanced group. The most immediately relevant point is that things could soon get much worse:
Even without a strong response to the 9 October 2006 nuclear test that targets the North’s economy, the internal situation could soon get much worse. The perfect storm may be brewing for a return to famine in the North. Last year, Pyongyang reintroduced the same public distribution system for food that collapsed in the 1990s and rejected international humanitarian assistance, demanding instead unmonitored development help. Funding for remaining aid programs is difficult to secure, and summer floods have damaged crops and infrastructure.
It’s a long pdf, and well worth reading, although I do disagree with the point that follows, which is that most refugees flee because they’re hungry rather than for political reasons. There is evidence to the contrary, of course; a good number of refugees do in fact seek freedom, although they don’t necessarily find as much as they expect. Yet I accept the point that “most” flee for reasons that are superficially economic, although their hunger derives from the low rationing priority that accompanies the political classification assigned to them.
No one wants the burden of sanctions to be borne by the North Korean people. Preventing that will require an international response — as with the coordinated international response to the nuclear test — that forces North Korea to accept monitored food aid. The other alternative, which Pyongyang would certainly not want, should be the creation of feeding/refuge stations on its borders.
The report says that ‘Hunger and the lack of economic opportunity, rather than policital oppression, are the most important factors in shaping a North Korean’s decision to leave…’.
It is beyond ridiculous to separate political oppression from economic opportunity in a totalitarian system. It might be somewhat reasonable to make such a distinction in dictatorships where the great leader is a simple power mad criminal without a political program. But to try to make such a distinction in a totalitarian system is to ignore that every ‘economic opportunity’, or even one’s next meal, depend completely and utterly on political loyalty, on pathetic kowtowing to power-crazed scum, and often on varying degrees of criminal cooperation with one’s torturers.
To then make it somehow contemptible, to slide individuals down some moral scale because they have the guts to try and leave under threat of even worse enslavement, torture or murder , is wrong.
That slide down a moral scale helps to justify the rationalizations of those who would refuse such refuseniks, like the Chinese and South Korean governments.
The final fact is this: every North Korean who escapes is another drop of acid dissolving that vile regime. Furthermore, every party to this knows it. They ought to be judged accordingly.
One final thought: an individual who asserts himself or herself against such villainy, even if only to escape, is a gem, and should be welcome in any good society, for reasons both moral and practical.
Since the nuclear test came as it has, I want to keep a better eye on the food situation this winter. I need to go back and read some of the posts and links you’ve had up for the past 6 months and more —- if I ever get the time. It will probably have to wait until early December when I get a school break.
I had a bad feeling last night as I was dozing off for the night: a feeling a major outbreak of military hostility is in store for Korea in 2007 perhaps 2008.
I already think there is a good chance the nuke test and other things coming as they have means Pyongyang is afraid it is going to have some internal upheaval pushing the regime toward collapse within the next 2 years, and if I have time to stop and think about it, I get the feeling not just the regime, but perhaps the traumatized masses as well — are prime candidates for “suicide by cop”.
That was what popped into my mind last night —- and stuck there.
The generations still alive today have lived their whole lives under total state controlled. They have lived through watching a large chunk of their nation — starve to death. Since that period, they have lived in constant fear of those darkest days coming back. They must look at every short term food shortage as the start of another couple million starving to death – even if they get such fears from frequent short term shortages — meaning – they would fear the worst no matter how many times the food supply shortage turns out to be shortlived.
We have already heard from one humanitarian relief head guy that the whole nation is showing signs of Post Traumatic Stress Syndrome.
And my main thought is —- how hard would it be for a mass of people ready to turn on their own government who has been so fearful to them for so long —— to instead follow that regime’s order to attack the US imperialists who have made their lives so miserable by launching attacks into South Korea?
I believe Kim Il Jong himself would definately decide to go out in a blaze of glory. I cannot imagine him -say- taking a golden parachute trip to some third country if the US/UN made him that offer as the nation crumbled.
I would guess many of those top level people around him at the time of the crumbling would also go down with him, because they can’t imagine a situation in which the North Korean people would let them live once the regime is over.
But, my hope — probably my only real hope —- is that down the food chain of power, the mid-level guys and then especially the people out on the ground in the military and such —– when they see the regime crumbling — will simply sit back and wait to see what happens – especially the further you get outside of Pyongyang city.
But, I don’t know if that will happen. I can just as easily see them fighting a fanatical short war and being happy when their end comes……
Frankly, I’m glad I’m not living in South Korea any more…..