http://freekorea.us/2007/02/13/hill-we-have-a-deal/ Tue, 22 May 2012 09:51:16 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.2 http://freekorea.us/2007/02/13/hill-we-have-a-deal/comment-page-1/#comment-55185 OneFreeKorea » The Unstoppable Self-Destruction of Kim Jong Il Sun, 21 Oct 2007 11:38:31 +0000 http://freekorea.us/?p=6474#comment-55185 [...] You also have to wonder how much Kim Jong Il earned from selling Syria a nuclear reactor, as details about the discovery and destruction of that reactor are gradually coming to light and putting intense pressure on President Bush to justify, and even reconsider, the value of a nukes-for-aid deal that could still lead to the full normalization of U.S.-North Korean relations, an incalculable benefit to Kim Jong Il.  Now, Bush is forced to say things like this: ‘’They have declared that they will show us weapons and get rid of the weapons programs, as well as stop proliferation….  If they don’t fulfill that which they’ve said, we are now in a position to make sure that they understand that there be consequences.'’  – President George W. Bush, Oct. 17, 2007, via Kyodo  [...] [...] You also have to wonder how much Kim Jong Il earned from selling Syria a nuclear reactor, as details about the discovery and destruction of that reactor are gradually coming to light and putting intense pressure on President Bush to justify, and even reconsider, the value of a nukes-for-aid deal that could still lead to the full normalization of U.S.-North Korean relations, an incalculable benefit to Kim Jong Il.  Now, Bush is forced to say things like this: ‘’They have declared that they will show us weapons and get rid of the weapons programs, as well as stop proliferation….  If they don’t fulfill that which they’ve said, we are now in a position to make sure that they understand that there be consequences.’’  – President George W. Bush, Oct. 17, 2007, via Kyodo  [...]

]]> http://freekorea.us/2007/02/13/hill-we-have-a-deal/comment-page-1/#comment-54932 OneFreeKorea » NYT: It Was a Reactor Sun, 14 Oct 2007 12:28:52 +0000 http://freekorea.us/?p=6474#comment-54932 [...] Any nuclear technology or material transfer would be a violation of U.N.S.C.R. 1718, but would not directly violate the vague February 13, 2007 deal or the even more vague September 19, 2005 deal, except maybe for this part of the former:  “The Parties reaffirmed that they will take positive steps to increase mutual trust. . . .”  To which I say:  if North Korea felt itself free to engage in nuclear proliferation — said to be a “red line” before any deals were inked — then the worthlessness of these deals is already apparent.   [...] [...] Any nuclear technology or material transfer would be a violation of U.N.S.C.R. 1718, but would not directly violate the vague February 13, 2007 deal or the even more vague September 19, 2005 deal, except maybe for this part of the former:  “The Parties reaffirmed that they will take positive steps to increase mutual trust. . . .”  To which I say:  if North Korea felt itself free to engage in nuclear proliferation — said to be a “red line” before any deals were inked — then the worthlessness of these deals is already apparent.   [...]

]]> http://freekorea.us/2007/02/13/hill-we-have-a-deal/comment-page-1/#comment-54173 OneFreeKorea » The Orchard File: What are North Korea and Syria up to? Mon, 17 Sep 2007 10:53:01 +0000 http://freekorea.us/?p=6474#comment-54173 [...] You probably know where I stand on Agreed Framework 2.0 by now.  If the more alarming reports are true — that the target was a nuclear device or nuclear “material” supplied by North Korea – it ought to be game over.  If the less alarming reports are true — that the target was a facility where Syria and North Korea were doing cooperative nuclear research — it’s still a clear violation of U.N. Security Council Resolution 1718, which still isn’t even a year old, which passed unanimously, and which is almost completely forgotten (but shouldn’t be).  [...] [...] You probably know where I stand on Agreed Framework 2.0 by now.  If the more alarming reports are true — that the target was a nuclear device or nuclear “material” supplied by North Korea – it ought to be game over.  If the less alarming reports are true — that the target was a facility where Syria and North Korea were doing cooperative nuclear research — it’s still a clear violation of U.N. Security Council Resolution 1718, which still isn’t even a year old, which passed unanimously, and which is almost completely forgotten (but shouldn’t be).  [...]

]]> http://freekorea.us/2007/02/13/hill-we-have-a-deal/comment-page-1/#comment-52972 OneFreeKorea » What’s the Value of a North Korean Disclosure Anyway? Mon, 03 Sep 2007 01:58:13 +0000 http://freekorea.us/?p=6474#comment-52972 [...] Update:  Woohoo!  They agreed to full disclosure again, for the second time in six months!  Thanks to the brilliant diplomacy of our State Department, we can actually bask in the afterglow of the same breakthrough twice a year!  It’s twice the feelgood for the price!  At least, until someone leaks that we had to pay another price …. [...] [...] Update:  Woohoo!  They agreed to full disclosure again, for the second time in six months!  Thanks to the brilliant diplomacy of our State Department, we can actually bask in the afterglow of the same breakthrough twice a year!  It’s twice the feelgood for the price!  At least, until someone leaks that we had to pay another price …. [...]

]]> http://freekorea.us/2007/02/13/hill-we-have-a-deal/comment-page-1/#comment-52411 OneFreeKorea » Did North Korea Just Renege Again? Mon, 27 Aug 2007 03:49:59 +0000 http://freekorea.us/?p=6474#comment-52411 [...] For your convenence, here’s the full text of the agreement again, in which North Korea agreed to permanently disable all of its nuclear programs.  [...] [...] For your convenence, here’s the full text of the agreement again, in which North Korea agreed to permanently disable all of its nuclear programs.  [...]

]]> http://freekorea.us/2007/02/13/hill-we-have-a-deal/comment-page-1/#comment-50222 OneFreeKorea » The Next Deadlock Sun, 22 Jul 2007 01:59:55 +0000 http://freekorea.us/?p=6474#comment-50222 [...] So really, our problem is that despite signing an agreement, not much has been agreed.  That’s about what I said back in February when I pronounced this the Not-Quite-Agreed Framework.  And the reason why we can’t agree on details is that Kim Jong Il still holds onto secrecy, hostility, and extortion as though they were the keys to his personal survival.  Those are all things our policy toward the North has incentivized: At the heart of the negotiations is whether Pyongyang wants to end its isolation and join the rest of the world or is playing more diplomatic games. The Bush administration has displayed more flexibility in recent months by sending Hill to Pyongyang in June and helping release more than $20 million in blocked North Korean funds from a Macao bank. [...] [...] So really, our problem is that despite signing an agreement, not much has been agreed.  That’s about what I said back in February when I pronounced this the Not-Quite-Agreed Framework.  And the reason why we can’t agree on details is that Kim Jong Il still holds onto secrecy, hostility, and extortion as though they were the keys to his personal survival.  Those are all things our policy toward the North has incentivized: At the heart of the negotiations is whether Pyongyang wants to end its isolation and join the rest of the world or is playing more diplomatic games. The Bush administration has displayed more flexibility in recent months by sending Hill to Pyongyang in June and helping release more than $20 million in blocked North Korean funds from a Macao bank. [...]

]]> http://freekorea.us/2007/02/13/hill-we-have-a-deal/comment-page-1/#comment-49821 OneFreeKorea » IAEA Confirms Yongbyon Shutdown Mon, 16 Jul 2007 11:39:31 +0000 http://freekorea.us/?p=6474#comment-49821 [...] After much speculation, the International Atomic Energy Agency has confirmed that North Korea has shut down its plutonium reactor at Yongbyon.  I have always expected North Korea to go through this part of the deal (full text here), as I expected them to let IAEA inspectors back into Yongbyon and the other facilities near it.  But to simplify arguments I’ve made here before, those things cost North Korea almost nothing: [...] [...] After much speculation, the International Atomic Energy Agency has confirmed that North Korea has shut down its plutonium reactor at Yongbyon.  I have always expected North Korea to go through this part of the deal (full text here), as I expected them to let IAEA inspectors back into Yongbyon and the other facilities near it.  But to simplify arguments I’ve made here before, those things cost North Korea almost nothing: [...]

]]> http://freekorea.us/2007/02/13/hill-we-have-a-deal/comment-page-1/#comment-48644 NK Reactor Shutdown Needs More Six Way Talks at ROK Drop Sun, 01 Jul 2007 00:02:15 +0000 http://freekorea.us/?p=6474#comment-48644 [...] What is so interesting about this is that there is already a date set for the reactor shutdown that was agreed upon in the February 13th agreement between the US and North Korea.  In the deal North Korea agreed to shutdown their reactor 60 days from signing the deal.  April 13th came and passed with no signs of North Korea shutting down their reactor without receiving first $25 million dollars in money frozen by the US Treasury Department in a Macau bank due to the money being obtained through counterfeiting and money laundering.  The return of the money was never in the original agreement and was something North Korea added after signing the February 13th deal.  [...] [...] What is so interesting about this is that there is already a date set for the reactor shutdown that was agreed upon in the February 13th agreement between the US and North Korea.  In the deal North Korea agreed to shutdown their reactor 60 days from signing the deal.  April 13th came and passed with no signs of North Korea shutting down their reactor without receiving first $25 million dollars in money frozen by the US Treasury Department in a Macau bank due to the money being obtained through counterfeiting and money laundering.  The return of the money was never in the original agreement and was something North Korea added after signing the February 13th deal.  [...]

]]> http://freekorea.us/2007/02/13/hill-we-have-a-deal/comment-page-1/#comment-48126 OneFreeKorea » Vanishing Goalposts and a Fool’s Errand Sun, 24 Jun 2007 05:52:46 +0000 http://freekorea.us/?p=6474#comment-48126 [...] Now we know what the worst of both worlds looks like.  First, we got together with the representatives of five other nations that were mostly in competition to take the biggest bite out of our ankles.  Then, we signed the worst deal the collective malice of four nations could extract from us (the fifth nation, Japan, had behaved like an ally).  Now, we’re back out on our own re-negotiating the same terms we thought we’d agreed four months ago … this time, bilaterally.    [...] [...] Now we know what the worst of both worlds looks like.  First, we got together with the representatives of five other nations that were mostly in competition to take the biggest bite out of our ankles.  Then, we signed the worst deal the collective malice of four nations could extract from us (the fifth nation, Japan, had behaved like an ally).  Now, we’re back out on our own re-negotiating the same terms we thought we’d agreed four months ago … this time, bilaterally.    [...]

]]> http://freekorea.us/2007/02/13/hill-we-have-a-deal/comment-page-1/#comment-47338 OneFreeKorea » Dude, Where’s My Spine? Agreed Framework 2.0 at Four Months Sun, 17 Jun 2007 03:15:24 +0000 http://freekorea.us/?p=6474#comment-47338 [...] There are almost too many levels on which this is repellent for me to know where to start, but let’s start with this:  it will not help us disarm Kim Jong Il (in fact, our suspicions about how Kim has been spending the U.N.’s money suggest exactly the opposite (ht)).  Returning this money was never a part of the new Agreed Framework Bush’s man, Chris Hill, signed on February 13th.  That agreement marked a staggering reversal of a strategy that had once demanded the complete, verifiable, and irreversible dismantlement of all of North Korea’s nuclear programs before it would receive any regime-sustaining benefits or payoffs.  It also promised an element of principle:  it seemed to suggest that Kim Jong Il’s treatment of his own people would be on the agenda one day, though exactly how was never clear. [...] [...] There are almost too many levels on which this is repellent for me to know where to start, but let’s start with this:  it will not help us disarm Kim Jong Il (in fact, our suspicions about how Kim has been spending the U.N.’s money suggest exactly the opposite (ht)).  Returning this money was never a part of the new Agreed Framework Bush’s man, Chris Hill, signed on February 13th.  That agreement marked a staggering reversal of a strategy that had once demanded the complete, verifiable, and irreversible dismantlement of all of North Korea’s nuclear programs before it would receive any regime-sustaining benefits or payoffs.  It also promised an element of principle:  it seemed to suggest that Kim Jong Il’s treatment of his own people would be on the agenda one day, though exactly how was never clear. [...]

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