Ransom Is Not a Countermeasure
The Taliban have now murdered a second South Korean hostage. I don’t know what I can say about the Taliban that I haven’t already said, other than that the odds are good they can be tracked down for their trials and whatever appropriately miserable fate awaits them in Pol-e-Charki Prison. There have been a lot of stories recently reporting that dozens of their fighters have been killed. Stories like this may or may not indicate a more significant trend. Insurgencies can often survive heavy casualties like this and quickly replace the losses if their clandestine infrastructures — their command, control, and logistics — survive intact. But the Taliban have lost a lot of their top commanders this year, which suggests that the replacement commanders are back-benchers who make mistakes, and those mistakes are getting their people killed. Good. Yesterday, the Fourth Rail reported that the Chairman of the Taliban’s Military Council was killed in a “targeted raid” in Helmand Province, in the Southwest near Iran. If the trend can be sustained, it will cost the Taliban recruits and money. Obviously, the last thing we want to do at a time like this is to free other experienced terrorists or leaders, or give them cash.
That’s what some in South Korea are proposing, although I give great weight to Sonagi’s translations suggesting that the Taliban are catching most of the rage in the chat rooms, as they should. Roh Moo Hyun called for “stern countermeasures,” but then confused matters by adding that he still opposes any rescue attempt — he favors more dialogue, of course. The worst possible kind:
“The government is well aware of how the international community deals with these kinds of abduction cases. But it also believes that it would be worthwhile to use flexibility in the cause of saving the precious lives of those still in captivity and is appealing the international community to do so,” said the statement. [Yonhap]
Which isn’t a very subtle way of saying that he wants Taliban prisoners to be freed, knowing full well that they’d go right back to killing American soldiers and Afghan civilians. You can call Roh may things, but you can’t fault his consistency. Paying protection money has been a bedrock principle of his government from the beginning. And what special distinction does Roh make to suggest that these hostages are more deserving than others as cause to deviate from the principle that we don’t reward terrorism? The United States should quietly and unamiguously refuse to go along with this, but sadly, there’s an excellent chance that we’ll quietly yield to Roh’s pressure instead. We’ve gotten used to this sort of thing recently. Roh would be wise to remember that if things deteriorate in Afghanistan because the Taliban get new blood and money, South Korea is one of the places we may go looking for more forces.
The far-left Democratic Peoples’ Labor Party was less subtle.
July 31, SEOUL, South Korea — Officials of the labor-friendly minor opposition Democratic Labor Party, including party chief Moon Sung-hyun (C), holds a press conference in front of the U.S. Embassy in Seoul on July 31, demanding that the United States take immediate actions to defuse a Korean hostage crisis in Afghanistan. (Yonhap)
Readers will remember that one of the DLP’s two main factions, the so-called “national liberation” faction, was recently revealed as essentially a North Korean front. North’s agents in its midst played a major role in organizing violent anti-American protests that inevitably drew the adoring eye of Cindy Sheehan and the droopy eye of Medea Benjamin.
Why strain so to make this all about America, even when the South Korean people (thankfully) don’t seem to be buying it so far? Two words: election year. Unless Japan lands the Imperial Guard on Tokdo, demonizing America is the only hope the far left has of giving itself a unifying issue. In a sense, the North Korea nuclear issue is off the table for now, which is probably the best thing I can say about Agreed Framework 2.0, as long as it doesn’t last long beyond the election. The left can’t talk about the economy it ruined, either.
[Update: More spinning this into an anti-American issue, via Michelle Malkin]
What you will not see this year is any similar issue being made of China not helping to secure the release of thousands of South Koreans who have been held in North Korea for decades. Remember them? Hardly anyone in South Korea seems to. And unlike the hostages in Afghanistan, who knowingly introduced themselves into a very dangerous place, North Korea’s hostages were kidnapped off South Korean beaches and fishing boats, or are soldiers the North had agreed to return to their families in the 1953 Armistice. Not that I support paying ransom to Kim Jong Il, but if billions are being paid anyway, wouldn’t calling it ransom be a step in the right direction?
There is another alternative. If Roh would threaten to introduce signficant combat forces to Afghanistan if the hostages aren’t released promptly — I mean a battalion or more of ROK Special Forces for at least a year — that would be a significant deterrent. Those forces should not be sent on a mission of raid, rampage, and revenge, which will only make more recruits for the Taliban in the long run. They should take responsibility for stabilizing a limited area of battle space that the Taliban are currently using for recruiting or growing dope. Roh should also realize that the Taliban take hostages in part for propaganda reasons, and that they are watching how their actions are viewed. So far, they’ve generally caught a break, and the captives themselves have been the objects of far more derision. If South Korean government would vocally demonize the Taliban and ignite popular outrage against them — and we know they can do that, don’t we? — the Taliban might conclude that this enterprise is doing more harm than good. Talk of yielding to their demands will only get more people kidnapped and killed.
[Update 2: GI Korea makes a great point: “This whole thing is especially ironic when one considers the Korean government’s attitude the past five years of wanting “independent diplomacy” and a “more equal relationship” with the US, but when it is time to act like a grown up nation it is back to the were the “helpless Korea” diplomacy and America needs to do something.”]
See also:
* “Four North Koreans who sought asylum in South Korea after entering the Danish Embassy in Vietnam earlier this month have been handed over to South Korean officials in a third country, a U.S. government-funded radio station reported Tuesday.” [Yonhap]
* North Korea has held an “election,” and Yonhap helpfully passes along that “all voters across the country took part in the election with ardent revolutionary enthusiasm.” Yonhap’s coverage of internal North Korean events recently has taken on a Rodong-lite flavor, and this report of how Kim Jong Il voted is also passed along pretty much unleavened.
As I noted in a comment yesterday, given the high profile nature of this event, and given the fact a significant number of kidnapping events have taken place over the past 12 months or so, if South Korea pays off the Taliban to free what ever remains of the hostages, it must start looking like open season on LG, Samsung, Hyundai and any other Koreans abroad who venture into nations where kidnappings occur.
And there is no way any Taliban fighters should be released.
There were some interesting articles out this past week on a Taliban commander who blew himself up rather than be captured at his base —– he was released from the US detention facility in Cuba.
Apparently, there is a more detailed report floating around somewhere about individuals released from Gitmo who have gone back to fight in Afghanistan or Iraq or reconnected with known terrorist orgs to help the training, fund raising, and other infrastructure needs of the loose terrorist networks.
I haven’t been watching the news closely, but I haven’t read much about that detailed report…..which of course I wouldn’t….
But, the US putting pressure on Afghanistan to release Taliban fighters in exchange for the Korean hostages should not happen unless it could be used somehow to track where the fighters go so forces could take out the groups they go back to working for….
“Sonagi’s translations suggesting that the Taliban are catching most of the rage in the chat rooms, as they should.”
Right now it’s the inept, pleading Roh government that is catching the most flak. A Kyunghang Shinmun piece on the government’s latest and most plaintative plea for international (read: US) help at Naver has drawn a litany of snide responses from Korean netizens. Among the top rec’d posts, there was one possibly facetious one-liner blaming the US for the hostages getting into a dangerous situation and there was another questioning why Korea, which contributed troops along with Japan, Germany, and others, wasn’t getting assistance. The remaining US-related posts said things like:
“Why is this the US’ responsibility? Why do we pay taxes and fund a military then?”
“Once again, anti-Americanism from the Left”
“Our government trying to dump blame onto the US instead of solving the problem”
“The Roh government’s solution to the problem? More candle vigils?”
“Quit hesitating and waiting for international help. Let’s just pay ransom, launch a rescue mission or something. That’s what Koreans want.”
Korean netizens are angry, not at the US but at their own government. I suspect the government treads carefully in talking publicly about the Taliban because it does not want to ignite anti-Muslim, anti-Middle Eastern sentiments that may get in the way of South Korea’s cozy business interests in the Middle East. Muslims are already angry at the images of Koreans praying at a Muslim shrine and teaching Afghan children to recite praise of Jesus, something the Korean government apparently doesn’t want its citizens to know, for the Allahholy blogspot site is blocked. Koreans are noted for their unique demonstration culture, and I don’t think the Korean government wants any public displays that might upset countries which throw a lot of business to Korean construction and shipping firms.
The chuzpah award of the day goes to…
The People’s Solidarity for Participatory Democracy! (the what? maybe it sounds better in Korean)
They say “Now why can’t [Korea] use the spirit of the alliance to help persuade the U.S. administration and save its own people?â€
Oh, gee, I don’t know, because you’ve gleefully shat on it for the last 5 years or so?
http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/07/31/asia/afghan.2-106437.php?page=2
Speaking of The Glorious Democratically Elected General, you might like this:
“Kim Jong Il’s Approval Rating Plummets to 120%”
http://www.theonion.com/content/video/in_the_know_kim_jong_ils_approval
I had another thought. Roh government and the media aren’t berating the Taliban for the same reason I’m not. It would be pointless and probably counterproductive. The Taliban are one of a handful of organized groups beyond the reach of Korean netizens.
This pussification of South Korea…I wonder if the DPRK is paying attention.
I suspect the kidnapers have been located and are being watched. It takes time to get the right people (Delta) in place with a plan that has some hope of sucess. Once that has been accomplished it is the individual governments who chose to go ahead or not. I suspect Roh will wait til its too late, as he feels to allow the Americans to do what he cannot ,would be losing face for him and his anti American policy. To make a decision when all his options are exhausted , would put any rescue attempt in jeopordy, and the likelyhood of many of the hostages dieing. The time for a rescue attempt is when the Taliban least expect it. During negotiations. Roh isn’t very bright, but you can be sure he knows who to blame if anything goes wrong. Hes the consumate idiot politician, whose main concern will be what the political outcome will be and how can he manage it.
Letting the US ops do it would be perfect cover. If it went well, he (well, Roh would have a harder time than others, but a generic “he”) could claim leadership – that he was working behind the scenes with the Americans (and any type of contact on the affair could be ginned up that way) — and if it all went to hell, he could express regret the Americans did not listen to his public call for negociations and time but — not do so too much to the extent the Americans decided to speak out.
If the rescue mission turned to crap, he could both say he wished more time had been given and call on Koreans not to hurt the feelings of a necessary ally by playing anti-Americanism.
It really should not be terribly difficult for a reasonable politican (I use the term in its pejorative sense) in South Korea’s position to cut out a win-win position….
Hand the deal over to the US behind the scenes and wait for the outcome. If it works, say it was your leadership. If it fails, deflect blame but also show leadership by calling for not too much anti-US sentiment. Maybe fly to Washington – win or lose – and show how the alliance is still strong – regardless of the outcome……
Some might point out how you said at the start of your career you wouldn’t go to the US just for a photo op and/or to Kow-tow…..but hey……I said a “generic” Korean president should be able to work this into a win-win – and even Roh could do it if he tried, I think…