Comments on: North Korea’s Floods: The Next Lost Opportunity http://freekorea.us/2007/08/20/north-koreas-floods-the-next-lost-opportunity/ Tue, 22 May 2012 21:47:26 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.2 By: OneFreeKorea » Walking the Road to Hell With the Eugene Bell Foundation http://freekorea.us/2007/08/20/north-koreas-floods-the-next-lost-opportunity/comment-page-1/#comment-55449 OneFreeKorea » Walking the Road to Hell With the Eugene Bell Foundation Fri, 09 Nov 2007 13:35:35 +0000 http://freekorea.us/2007/08/20/north-koreas-floods-the-next-lost-opportunity/#comment-55449 [...] Here, Linton distorts the truth.  The 2005 harvest was a slight improvement over previous years, but Linton must have known that without international aid, the food emergency would return as soon as whatever stocks the people had put aside ran out.  In 2005, it still produced far less food than it produced in pre-famine days, and far less than its people needed to survive.  North Korea has never recovered its food self-sufficiency since the famine, and after the slight increase in food production in 2005, harvests plunged again the following year.  By last December of 2006, U.N. agencies, including the World Food Program, were warning of a new food crisis.  They repeated the warnings in March of 2007.  And that was even before the latest floods destroyed much of this year’s crop. Second, far more help is available today should North Korea ever need emergency aid again. When Pyongyang dialed 911 in 1995, the phone rang in Geneva and New York, and it took months for the first large shipments of international aid to arrive, too late to help many people. One official told me at the time: “We are very grateful for international assistance. Still, one ton two months ago would have been more welcome than 10 tons today.”  [Linton] [...] [...] Here, Linton distorts the truth.  The 2005 harvest was a slight improvement over previous years, but Linton must have known that without international aid, the food emergency would return as soon as whatever stocks the people had put aside ran out.  In 2005, it still produced far less food than it produced in pre-famine days, and far less than its people needed to survive.  North Korea has never recovered its food self-sufficiency since the famine, and after the slight increase in food production in 2005, harvests plunged again the following year.  By last December of 2006, U.N. agencies, including the World Food Program, were warning of a new food crisis.  They repeated the warnings in March of 2007.  And that was even before the latest floods destroyed much of this year’s crop. Second, far more help is available today should North Korea ever need emergency aid again. When Pyongyang dialed 911 in 1995, the phone rang in Geneva and New York, and it took months for the first large shipments of international aid to arrive, too late to help many people. One official told me at the time: “We are very grateful for international assistance. Still, one ton two months ago would have been more welcome than 10 tons today.”  [Linton] [...]

]]> By: OneFreeKorea » The Unstoppable Self-Destruction of Kim Jong Il http://freekorea.us/2007/08/20/north-koreas-floods-the-next-lost-opportunity/comment-page-1/#comment-55188 OneFreeKorea » The Unstoppable Self-Destruction of Kim Jong Il Sun, 21 Oct 2007 11:40:15 +0000 http://freekorea.us/2007/08/20/north-koreas-floods-the-next-lost-opportunity/#comment-55188 [...] Here’s my post on the floods and their impact on the food situation.  The Daily NK report adds several other important details, which I’ll try to put in context.  Recall that in North Korea, rice is the food of privileged people only, and the poor who can afford to eat at all eat corn.  Corn prices appear to be stable, so for now, there is no immediate threat of famine.  The shortage of rice means that the North’s relatively privileged citizens are facing a significant and adverse change of lifestyle because domestic production is sharply down, and because (as the Daily NK also reports) international aid isn’t flowing in.  The problem may be further compounded by hoarding.  [...] [...] Here’s my post on the floods and their impact on the food situation.  The Daily NK report adds several other important details, which I’ll try to put in context.  Recall that in North Korea, rice is the food of privileged people only, and the poor who can afford to eat at all eat corn.  Corn prices appear to be stable, so for now, there is no immediate threat of famine.  The shortage of rice means that the North’s relatively privileged citizens are facing a significant and adverse change of lifestyle because domestic production is sharply down, and because (as the Daily NK also reports) international aid isn’t flowing in.  The problem may be further compounded by hoarding.  [...]

]]> By: OneFreeKorea » Links for 12 Oct 07 http://freekorea.us/2007/08/20/north-koreas-floods-the-next-lost-opportunity/comment-page-1/#comment-54919 OneFreeKorea » Links for 12 Oct 07 Fri, 12 Oct 2007 12:27:43 +0000 http://freekorea.us/2007/08/20/north-koreas-floods-the-next-lost-opportunity/#comment-54919 [...] *  What Then?  As I mentioned here, the South Korean election gives us good cause to keep that debate behind closed doors until December.  Then, if the evidence supports the allegation that North Korea cheated, the Administration — that is, Condi Rice herself – needs to lay it out in painstaking detail.  And to those who will say there is nothing we can do about it anyway short of war, nonsense.  If half-measures worked this well, imagine what a true economic blitz could do to the palace economy.  Because the idea is to destroy Kim Jong Il’s palace economy while engaging and empowering ordinary North Koreans, we should simultaneously extend a sincere and generous offer of food aid, strictly conditioned on North Korea letting us distribute it fairly.  As I’ve explained here, North Korea may not be in a position to refuse this time. [...] [...] *  What Then?  As I mentioned here, the South Korean election gives us good cause to keep that debate behind closed doors until December.  Then, if the evidence supports the allegation that North Korea cheated, the Administration — that is, Condi Rice herself – needs to lay it out in painstaking detail.  And to those who will say there is nothing we can do about it anyway short of war, nonsense.  If half-measures worked this well, imagine what a true economic blitz could do to the palace economy.  Because the idea is to destroy Kim Jong Il’s palace economy while engaging and empowering ordinary North Koreans, we should simultaneously extend a sincere and generous offer of food aid, strictly conditioned on North Korea letting us distribute it fairly.  As I’ve explained here, North Korea may not be in a position to refuse this time. [...]

]]> By: OneFreeKorea » “Famine in North Korea:” An Interactive Review (1 of 3) http://freekorea.us/2007/08/20/north-koreas-floods-the-next-lost-opportunity/comment-page-1/#comment-52060 OneFreeKorea » “Famine in North Korea:” An Interactive Review (1 of 3) Thu, 23 Aug 2007 02:22:16 +0000 http://freekorea.us/2007/08/20/north-koreas-floods-the-next-lost-opportunity/#comment-52060 [...] As I wrote this, I had also contacted the authors’ publicists, seeking their comment on this review, and asking some questions that their book raises.  I am now pleased to report that both Stephan Haggard and Marcus Noland have read the following review and have provided a response, and I offer them my deepest thanks for honoring my thoughts with theirs.  I will publish this review in two parts.  Their response will be Part 3, so aside from comments and responses, they will have the last word.  With recent flooding raising fears of food insecurity rising in the North, their response carries added relevance today. [...] [...] As I wrote this, I had also contacted the authors’ publicists, seeking their comment on this review, and asking some questions that their book raises.  I am now pleased to report that both Stephan Haggard and Marcus Noland have read the following review and have provided a response, and I offer them my deepest thanks for honoring my thoughts with theirs.  I will publish this review in two parts.  Their response will be Part 3, so aside from comments and responses, they will have the last word.  With recent flooding raising fears of food insecurity rising in the North, their response carries added relevance today. [...]

]]> By: The Florida Masochist http://freekorea.us/2007/08/20/north-koreas-floods-the-next-lost-opportunity/comment-page-1/#comment-52037 The Florida Masochist Wed, 22 Aug 2007 18:04:05 +0000 http://freekorea.us/2007/08/20/north-koreas-floods-the-next-lost-opportunity/#comment-52037 <strong>The games must go on...</strong> A summit between North Korea and South Korea has been postponed due to recent floods. A gymnastics tournament continues on in the DPRK. What is wrong with this picture?... The games must go on…

A summit between North Korea and South Korea has been postponed due to recent floods. A gymnastics tournament continues on in the DPRK. What is wrong with this picture?…

]]> By: Jack http://freekorea.us/2007/08/20/north-koreas-floods-the-next-lost-opportunity/comment-page-1/#comment-52018 Jack Wed, 22 Aug 2007 12:49:43 +0000 http://freekorea.us/2007/08/20/north-koreas-floods-the-next-lost-opportunity/#comment-52018 Excellent article. Excellent article.

]]> By: The Show Must Go On, but Not the Summit at ROK Drop http://freekorea.us/2007/08/20/north-koreas-floods-the-next-lost-opportunity/comment-page-1/#comment-51960 The Show Must Go On, but Not the Summit at ROK Drop Tue, 21 Aug 2007 21:21:27 +0000 http://freekorea.us/2007/08/20/north-koreas-floods-the-next-lost-opportunity/#comment-51960 [...] I think Nomad is on to something with the fact that the North Korean Arirang Mass Games are going to continue despite the flooding, but the Second Inter-Korea Summit has been delayed.  Someone else who is on to something is OFK who finds the damage statistics from the flooding very suspicious: [...] [...] I think Nomad is on to something with the fact that the North Korean Arirang Mass Games are going to continue despite the flooding, but the Second Inter-Korea Summit has been delayed.  Someone else who is on to something is OFK who finds the damage statistics from the flooding very suspicious: [...]

]]> By: A Second Hand Conjecture » News Brief, Sons and Daughters Edition http://freekorea.us/2007/08/20/north-koreas-floods-the-next-lost-opportunity/comment-page-1/#comment-51903 A Second Hand Conjecture » News Brief, Sons and Daughters Edition Mon, 20 Aug 2007 23:50:30 +0000 http://freekorea.us/2007/08/20/north-koreas-floods-the-next-lost-opportunity/#comment-51903 [...] While exploring the seemingly annual North Korean floods, OFK exposits an interesting idea: “In the ruined fields, there is an unprecedented humanitarian, political, and diplomatic benefit to be reaped. What if, instead of pouring cash and aid into the black hole of North Korea’s Public Distribution System, thus leaving the people vulnerable to its corruption, diversion, and political manipulations, international donors insisted on distributing their aid directly?” Unfortunately, that’s been attempted, and (in its most mildest form, which was requesting to see how the government was distributing aid) it resulted in the World Food Program being expelled. I don’t have any better solutions, however. And maybe he’s right—because this time the flooding is hitting the elites, they might have been willing to allow aid agencies to distribute their own aid. At the very least, I don’t see how the country could be any worse off. Unfortunately (it would be weirdly comforting to think it could slide even further into total unimaginable misery). [...] [...] While exploring the seemingly annual North Korean floods, OFK exposits an interesting idea: “In the ruined fields, there is an unprecedented humanitarian, political, and diplomatic benefit to be reaped. What if, instead of pouring cash and aid into the black hole of North Korea’s Public Distribution System, thus leaving the people vulnerable to its corruption, diversion, and political manipulations, international donors insisted on distributing their aid directly?” Unfortunately, that’s been attempted, and (in its most mildest form, which was requesting to see how the government was distributing aid) it resulted in the World Food Program being expelled. I don’t have any better solutions, however. And maybe he’s right—because this time the flooding is hitting the elites, they might have been willing to allow aid agencies to distribute their own aid. At the very least, I don’t see how the country could be any worse off. Unfortunately (it would be weirdly comforting to think it could slide even further into total unimaginable misery). [...]

]]> By: The Conjecturer » News Brief, Sons and Daughters Edition http://freekorea.us/2007/08/20/north-koreas-floods-the-next-lost-opportunity/comment-page-1/#comment-51902 The Conjecturer » News Brief, Sons and Daughters Edition Mon, 20 Aug 2007 23:47:49 +0000 http://freekorea.us/2007/08/20/north-koreas-floods-the-next-lost-opportunity/#comment-51902 [...] While exploring the seemingly annual North Korean floods, OFK exposits an interesting idea: “In the ruined fields, there is an unprecedented humanitarian, political, and diplomatic benefit to be reaped. What if, instead of pouring cash and aid into the black hole of North Korea’s Public Distribution System, thus leaving the people vulnerable to its corruption, diversion, and political manipulations, international donors insisted on distributing their aid directly?” Unfortunately, that’s been attempted, and (in its most mildest form, which was requesting to see how the government was distributing aid) it resulted in the World Food Program being expelled. I don’t have any better solutions, however. And maybe he’s right—because this time the flooding is hitting the elites, they might have been willing to allow aid agencies to distribute their own aid. At the very least, I don’t see how the country could be any worse off. Unfortunately (it would be weirdly comforting to think it could slide even further into total unimaginable misery). [...] [...] While exploring the seemingly annual North Korean floods, OFK exposits an interesting idea: “In the ruined fields, there is an unprecedented humanitarian, political, and diplomatic benefit to be reaped. What if, instead of pouring cash and aid into the black hole of North Korea’s Public Distribution System, thus leaving the people vulnerable to its corruption, diversion, and political manipulations, international donors insisted on distributing their aid directly?” Unfortunately, that’s been attempted, and (in its most mildest form, which was requesting to see how the government was distributing aid) it resulted in the World Food Program being expelled. I don’t have any better solutions, however. And maybe he’s right—because this time the flooding is hitting the elites, they might have been willing to allow aid agencies to distribute their own aid. At the very least, I don’t see how the country could be any worse off. Unfortunately (it would be weirdly comforting to think it could slide even further into total unimaginable misery). [...]

]]> By: Rand Millar http://freekorea.us/2007/08/20/north-koreas-floods-the-next-lost-opportunity/comment-page-1/#comment-51886 Rand Millar Mon, 20 Aug 2007 16:24:31 +0000 http://freekorea.us/2007/08/20/north-koreas-floods-the-next-lost-opportunity/#comment-51886 Good Morning Joshua Stanton. Thank you for your fine analysis of the current floods in northern Korea. As ever, from data collection to policy implications, you do the work that the "mainstream media", be they USA- or RoK-based, will not do. In any fair comparison with William Lloyd Garrison, you must fare well. Keep up the good work. One difficulty for an American administration, though it may have the data and be staffed in part by people who are aware of the bottom-line reality, is that the Kim family regime will likely never be its first priority. Doing the needful will be subordinated or subverted by policy priorities elsewhere. So far, this is the only way I can understand how the successful policy involving Banco Delta Asia was so incontinently jettisoned. How can we look for Bush, Rice, Hill & Co. to use the opportunity you have so well identified? Possibly that begs another question: how can any hypothetical right-minded USA policy be implemented while the RoK is governed by its present administration? Hard to have an engine pulling the train forward when another engine is hitched to the rear pulling the other way! Good Morning Joshua Stanton. Thank you for your fine analysis of the current floods in northern Korea. As ever, from data collection to policy implications, you do the work that the “mainstream media”, be they USA- or RoK-based, will not do. In any fair comparison with William Lloyd Garrison, you must fare well. Keep up the good work.

One difficulty for an American administration, though it may have the data and be staffed in part by people who are aware of the bottom-line reality, is that the Kim family regime will likely never be its first priority. Doing the needful will be subordinated or subverted by policy priorities elsewhere. So far, this is the only way I can understand how the successful policy involving Banco Delta Asia was so incontinently jettisoned. How can we look for Bush, Rice, Hill & Co. to use the opportunity you have so well identified? Possibly that begs another question: how can any hypothetical right-minded USA policy be implemented while the RoK is governed by its present administration? Hard to have an engine pulling the train forward when another engine is hitched to the rear pulling the other way!

]]>