Comments on: Links for 8/24: OFK Forecast, A Family’s Escape, Flood Updates, Nuke Talks ‘Positive’ But Stalled

By: GI Korea

GI Korea — Wed, 29 Aug 2007 07:41:01 +0000

I think if Lee throws enough bulldozers and concrete at his canal project he will make what now sounds ridiculous possible. However, the only reason I can support this canal project is because it will mean less aid for the North.

usinkorea is right that the conservatives will keep the North a float but I doubt they are going to be willing to give them everything the Roh administration is now giving them. I just can’t picture Lee giving Kim Jong-il $80 million for a one time train ride for example.

If the USFK relocation is delayed I really think the US will pull ground forces from Korea but then again that is all subject to who the next US president is.

By: OneFreeKorea » North Korea Calls Off “Arirang”

OneFreeKorea » North Korea Calls Off “Arirang” — Tue, 28 Aug 2007 02:00:37 +0000

[...] I accept cash (See Also,Â fourth item).Â Â The only other person who had suggested that the North Koreans would call off this monstrosity wasÂ Daily NK writer Kim Song-A, who also explains why that wasn’t as easy aÂ decision to makeÂ in North Korea as it would have been anywhere else: In 2005, the Arirang performance profited $11mn and having cancelled the show last year, many argue that it would be difficult to abandon the show two years in a row. Itâ€™s also possible that this was a measure to inhibit disturbances amongst the North Korean people while further exemplifying the systems prosperity.Â [Daily NK] [...]

By: Joshua

Joshua — Sun, 26 Aug 2007 18:43:06 +0000

GI Korea has actually made a serious argument for that ridiculous canal idea. In light of the fact that Korea is a mountainous peninsula fringed with some of the world’s best seaports, I didn’t really think that was possible.

By: usinkorea

usinkorea — Sun, 26 Aug 2007 16:12:49 +0000

The conservatives don’t want a collapse of North Korea any more than the liberals in SK. The rhetoric and size of the material aid to the North might change, but the basic overall policy will not change – Keep the North alive. Kaesong will not be shut down and the SK gov will seek to get the US to go along with it on Kaesong. The mountain tours will continue. And the South will find ways to get what it thinks the North needs to survive above the 38th parallel…reciprocity or not…..clash with US policy or not…

The biggest difference for Lee will be not having to deal with a Rumsfeld-oriented Pentagon. The US ship of change not only sailed, it was torpedoed and will never rise again — at least not in the foreseeable future.

That means great amounts of pressure will be gone from the US side…..which means Lee will have more freedom to talk a good game but change very little…

In fact, I would expect to see more movement on the South’s side toward “renegociating” US-SK changes than NK policy.

I expect the USFK transformation and the Yongsan base move to die slow deaths – perhaps being left in a snail’s paced limbo way, way beyond 2012….And I expect the command transfer to go next to nowhere as far as actually coming about….

It will probably take Lee a good bit of his tenure to make sure this limbo death is established given the momentum the Rumsfeld-Roh era created. I think SK will put more energy into that than any changes in NK policy post-Roh.

By: GI Korea

GI Korea — Sat, 25 Aug 2007 08:32:22 +0000

I think you are right about Lee, I don’t think he is going to take kindly to being Kim Jong-il’s bitch so at some point he is going to expect concessions at some point from Kim Jong-il.

Also I for one actually hope Lee builds his canal simply because it would probably mean less money going to North Korea. Such a project would be extraordinarily expensive and I doubt Lee can pay for it and keep the current level of aid going to Kim Jong-il as well.

By: Janus

Janus — Fri, 24 Aug 2007 19:50:18 +0000

I think you may be underestimating the degree to which simply expecting reciprocity WOULD be revolutionary in terms of North-South relations–namely because, as you have pointed out time and time again, Kim Jong-Il has absolutely no intention of reciprocity, and hasn’t for the last decade.

By: North Korea Blog » Links for 8/24: OFK Forecast, A Family?s Escape, Flood Updates, Nuke Talks ?Positive? But Stalled

Fri, 24 Aug 2007 13:48:25 +0000

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