Comments on: Q&A With Professor Andrei Lankov: On Changing North Korea http://freekorea.us/2007/09/18/qa-with-professor-andrei-lankov-on-changing-north-korea/ Tue, 22 May 2012 21:47:26 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.2 By: Joshua http://freekorea.us/2007/09/18/qa-with-professor-andrei-lankov-on-changing-north-korea/comment-page-1/#comment-514028 Joshua Wed, 22 Feb 2012 03:18:16 +0000 http://freekorea.us/2007/09/18/qa-with-professor-andrei-lankov-on-changing-north-korea/#comment-514028 The "Joshua" in the comments above isn't me, so I can't speak for him. The “Joshua” in the comments above isn’t me, so I can’t speak for him.

]]> By: Fred http://freekorea.us/2007/09/18/qa-with-professor-andrei-lankov-on-changing-north-korea/comment-page-1/#comment-513508 Fred Tue, 21 Feb 2012 19:30:23 +0000 http://freekorea.us/2007/09/18/qa-with-professor-andrei-lankov-on-changing-north-korea/#comment-513508 "I was recently in DC and had the chance to talk to several real Western (and also Asian) experts on North Korea." Name them, so we can read their work? "Because defectors will tell you what you want to hear, or what they think you want to hear, but they will seldom tell the truth. " What the ROK wanted to hear changed during the Sunshine Policy, but the firsthand accounts stayed the same. If you discount at 100% everything that North Koreans have to say about their experience, instead of doing a skeptical analysis cross-checking them with each other and with other sources of information (see Bradley Martin for how to do it) , then you can still draw conclusions from looking at them. Their medical exams show malnutrition and a high rate of preventable diseases. “I was recently in DC and had the chance to talk to several real Western (and also Asian) experts on North Korea.”

Name them, so we can read their work?

“Because defectors will tell you what you want to hear, or what they think you want to hear, but they will seldom tell the truth. ”

What the ROK wanted to hear changed during the Sunshine Policy, but the firsthand accounts stayed the same.

If you discount at 100% everything that North Koreans have to say about their experience, instead of doing a skeptical analysis cross-checking them with each other and with other sources of information (see Bradley Martin for how to do it) , then you can still draw conclusions from looking at them. Their medical exams show malnutrition and a high rate of preventable diseases.

]]> By: Rhesus http://freekorea.us/2007/09/18/qa-with-professor-andrei-lankov-on-changing-north-korea/comment-page-1/#comment-58392 Rhesus Mon, 21 Jul 2008 17:32:27 +0000 http://freekorea.us/2007/09/18/qa-with-professor-andrei-lankov-on-changing-north-korea/#comment-58392 Troll = 2/10 +1 since the name had me fooled for a second. Troll = 2/10

+1 since the name had me fooled for a second.

]]> By: Joshua http://freekorea.us/2007/09/18/qa-with-professor-andrei-lankov-on-changing-north-korea/comment-page-1/#comment-58390 Joshua Mon, 21 Jul 2008 15:07:43 +0000 http://freekorea.us/2007/09/18/qa-with-professor-andrei-lankov-on-changing-north-korea/#comment-58390 I was recently in DC and had the chance to talk to several real Western (and also Asian) experts on North Korea. As real experts working on North Korean issues almost exclusively, they do not feel the urge to loudly publicized how much they know about the state of the Kim Jong Il regime à la Lankov or Albright. In fact, both are ridiculed for their naive views on what is going on in North Korea and how will China and South Korea react to the North's collapse if (and it is a big if) it happens. Defectors have never been a reliable source of information, this has been known for 30-plus years now. Why do not American and South Korean secret services rush to interview defectors for as long as possible? Because defectors will tell you what you want to hear, or what they think you want to hear, but they will seldom tell the truth. Also, it is far from certain that opening up and getting outside information will bring regime change. Spain in the 70s, Vietnam in the 80s or today's Cuba are examples of countries in which the general population had (or has, in the latter case) plenty of knowledge about the outside world and revolution never took place in any of the three. Lankov's experience in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe makes him think that the same will apply to North Korea. This is simply hilarious and shows his inability to understand that other scenarios are indeed possible. I was recently in DC and had the chance to talk to several real Western (and also Asian) experts on North Korea. As real experts working on North Korean issues almost exclusively, they do not feel the urge to loudly publicized how much they know about the state of the Kim Jong Il regime à la Lankov or Albright. In fact, both are ridiculed for their naive views on what is going on in North Korea and how will China and South Korea react to the North’s collapse if (and it is a big if) it happens. Defectors have never been a reliable source of information, this has been known for 30-plus years now. Why do not American and South Korean secret services rush to interview defectors for as long as possible? Because defectors will tell you what you want to hear, or what they think you want to hear, but they will seldom tell the truth. Also, it is far from certain that opening up and getting outside information will bring regime change. Spain in the 70s, Vietnam in the 80s or today’s Cuba are examples of countries in which the general population had (or has, in the latter case) plenty of knowledge about the outside world and revolution never took place in any of the three. Lankov’s experience in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe makes him think that the same will apply to North Korea. This is simply hilarious and shows his inability to understand that other scenarios are indeed possible.

]]> By: OneFreeKorea » 2008 » January » 22 http://freekorea.us/2007/09/18/qa-with-professor-andrei-lankov-on-changing-north-korea/comment-page-1/#comment-56145 OneFreeKorea » 2008 » January » 22 Tue, 22 Jan 2008 18:40:17 +0000 http://freekorea.us/2007/09/18/qa-with-professor-andrei-lankov-on-changing-north-korea/#comment-56145 [...] 10:  Start preparing for reconstruction.  Unless Kim Jong Il believes that we’re prepared to accept the collapse of his regime as an alternative to verifiable disarmament, he won’t disarm.  We should also understand that rebuilding North Korea will be a task of incalculable scale that we’ll eventually have to face, one way or another.  Even if South Korean and Chinese aid continues indefinitely, it’s probably just a matter of time before Kim Jong Il’s regime collapses or dissolves into chaos.  Kim Jong Il is over 60, his health is said to be bad, and he has no suitable successor.  The economic system is in steady decline, resistant to reform, and probably incapable of reform.  Information is leaking in and discontent is spreading.  The food situation, which had recovered to more-or-less subsistence levels after the Great Famine, has worsened again following Kim Jong Il’s rejection of international aid and severe floods.  North Korea is a failed state — stripped, gutted, and traumatized.  Its reconstruction challenges could dwarf those of post-Saddam Iraq.  That’s why we must wrap our minds around how big a problem we’re facing, financially, politically, diplomatically, militarily, and psychologically.  Legislation such as the the North Korean Refugee Relief and Reconstruction Act would be a good start toward preparing to deal with those problems. [...] [...] 10:  Start preparing for reconstruction.  Unless Kim Jong Il believes that we’re prepared to accept the collapse of his regime as an alternative to verifiable disarmament, he won’t disarm.  We should also understand that rebuilding North Korea will be a task of incalculable scale that we’ll eventually have to face, one way or another.  Even if South Korean and Chinese aid continues indefinitely, it’s probably just a matter of time before Kim Jong Il’s regime collapses or dissolves into chaos.  Kim Jong Il is over 60, his health is said to be bad, and he has no suitable successor.  The economic system is in steady decline, resistant to reform, and probably incapable of reform.  Information is leaking in and discontent is spreading.  The food situation, which had recovered to more-or-less subsistence levels after the Great Famine, has worsened again following Kim Jong Il’s rejection of international aid and severe floods.  North Korea is a failed state — stripped, gutted, and traumatized.  Its reconstruction challenges could dwarf those of post-Saddam Iraq.  That’s why we must wrap our minds around how big a problem we’re facing, financially, politically, diplomatically, militarily, and psychologically.  Legislation such as the the North Korean Refugee Relief and Reconstruction Act would be a good start toward preparing to deal with those problems. [...]

]]> By: OneFreeKorea » There Is Such a Thing as ‘Good’ Engagement http://freekorea.us/2007/09/18/qa-with-professor-andrei-lankov-on-changing-north-korea/comment-page-1/#comment-55304 OneFreeKorea » There Is Such a Thing as ‘Good’ Engagement Mon, 29 Oct 2007 12:07:14 +0000 http://freekorea.us/2007/09/18/qa-with-professor-andrei-lankov-on-changing-north-korea/#comment-55304 [...] So clearly, the New York Philharmonic isn’t going to change North Korea much for the better, but many more exchanges like this could change it significantly.  Recently, I disappointed Professor Lankov by denying him much of a debate on regime change.  We simply agreed on too much in the end.  Like Lankov, I believe that the cultural penetration of North Korea — in those rare instances when it’s permitted to reach the people — can sow doubts, often in unexpected, subtle ways.  I am still just naive enough to believe that if the orchestra’s music moves the souls of some in the audience, that alone will cogently refute crude state propaganda which holds that all Americans are soulless big-nosed baby-killers.  The audience will certainly be composed exclusively of members of the elite, so the reaction will be impossible to measure.  This will be an audience with marginally more prior exposure to the outside world, but much less freedom to show any reaction whatsoever.  [...] [...] So clearly, the New York Philharmonic isn’t going to change North Korea much for the better, but many more exchanges like this could change it significantly.  Recently, I disappointed Professor Lankov by denying him much of a debate on regime change.  We simply agreed on too much in the end.  Like Lankov, I believe that the cultural penetration of North Korea — in those rare instances when it’s permitted to reach the people — can sow doubts, often in unexpected, subtle ways.  I am still just naive enough to believe that if the orchestra’s music moves the souls of some in the audience, that alone will cogently refute crude state propaganda which holds that all Americans are soulless big-nosed baby-killers.  The audience will certainly be composed exclusively of members of the elite, so the reaction will be impossible to measure.  This will be an audience with marginally more prior exposure to the outside world, but much less freedom to show any reaction whatsoever.  [...]

]]> By: Rob http://freekorea.us/2007/09/18/qa-with-professor-andrei-lankov-on-changing-north-korea/comment-page-1/#comment-54489 Rob Fri, 21 Sep 2007 05:07:53 +0000 http://freekorea.us/2007/09/18/qa-with-professor-andrei-lankov-on-changing-north-korea/#comment-54489 I thought Bruce Cummings was the leading Western expert. ;) I thought Bruce Cummings was the leading Western expert. ;)

]]> By: Andrei Lankov on OFK at ROK Drop http://freekorea.us/2007/09/18/qa-with-professor-andrei-lankov-on-changing-north-korea/comment-page-1/#comment-54445 Andrei Lankov on OFK at ROK Drop Thu, 20 Sep 2007 20:37:21 +0000 http://freekorea.us/2007/09/18/qa-with-professor-andrei-lankov-on-changing-north-korea/#comment-54445 [...] If you haven’t already make sure to read Joshua’s interview of Dr. Andrei Lankov.  A fascinating must read for anyone remotely interested about affairs on the Korean peninsula.  [...] [...] If you haven’t already make sure to read Joshua’s interview of Dr. Andrei Lankov.  A fascinating must read for anyone remotely interested about affairs on the Korean peninsula.  [...]

]]> By: GI Korea http://freekorea.us/2007/09/18/qa-with-professor-andrei-lankov-on-changing-north-korea/comment-page-1/#comment-54382 GI Korea Thu, 20 Sep 2007 00:50:41 +0000 http://freekorea.us/2007/09/18/qa-with-professor-andrei-lankov-on-changing-north-korea/#comment-54382 Excellent interview. If only the media had more people like Dr. Lankov quoted in it and less David Albrights maybe the public would have a more informed viewpoint on what is going on with North Korea. I do have to disagree with Dr. Lankov on Kaesong for two reasons, even though he does make a valid argument. First, like Richardson says it provides hard currency to the regime and secondly, it makes critics seem hypocritical to condemn NK for human rights violations and then turn around and support slave labor at Kaesong. Excellent interview. If only the media had more people like Dr. Lankov quoted in it and less David Albrights maybe the public would have a more informed viewpoint on what is going on with North Korea.

I do have to disagree with Dr. Lankov on Kaesong for two reasons, even though he does make a valid argument. First, like Richardson says it provides hard currency to the regime and secondly, it makes critics seem hypocritical to condemn NK for human rights violations and then turn around and support slave labor at Kaesong.

]]> By: Richardson http://freekorea.us/2007/09/18/qa-with-professor-andrei-lankov-on-changing-north-korea/comment-page-1/#comment-54341 Richardson Wed, 19 Sep 2007 13:32:31 +0000 http://freekorea.us/2007/09/18/qa-with-professor-andrei-lankov-on-changing-north-korea/#comment-54341 Excellent interview. I find myself agreeing with nearly everything Dr. Lankov has to say on the subject, the one area of disagreement being Kaesong; slaves they will be in any position, but at Kaesong they provide hard currency to the regime. Oh, and he likely is the leading Western expert, despite his protests. Excellent interview. I find myself agreeing with nearly everything Dr. Lankov has to say on the subject, the one area of disagreement being Kaesong; slaves they will be in any position, but at Kaesong they provide hard currency to the regime. Oh, and he likely is the leading Western expert, despite his protests.

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