Comments on: The Unstoppable Self-Destruction of Kim Jong Il http://freekorea.us/2007/10/21/the-unstoppable-self-destruction-of-kim-jong-il/ Tue, 22 May 2012 21:47:26 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.2 By: OneFreeKorea » Bush Administration’s Blackout Can’t Silence Syria-N. Korea Speculation http://freekorea.us/2007/10/21/the-unstoppable-self-destruction-of-kim-jong-il/comment-page-1/#comment-55632 OneFreeKorea » Bush Administration’s Blackout Can’t Silence Syria-N. Korea Speculation Sat, 24 Nov 2007 22:33:31 +0000 http://freekorea.us/2007/10/21/the-unstoppable-self-destruction-of-kim-jong-il/#comment-55632 [...] Pure speculation, then, and clearly marked as such.  Read and decide for yourself, but I don’t see a great deal of support for Even’s theory so much as I see legitimate questions about the prevailing one — that the Israelis bombed a nuclear reactor that was under construction with North Korean help (which would be bad enough).  The prevailing theory is far from conclusively established because (1) the intel has been kept from nearly everyone, including Congress [see Update 1] and most of the intelligence community, (2) no neutral monitor appears to have even asked to inspect the site, and (3) it’s a theory that largely relies on the conclusions of David Albright. [...] [...] Pure speculation, then, and clearly marked as such.  Read and decide for yourself, but I don’t see a great deal of support for Even’s theory so much as I see legitimate questions about the prevailing one — that the Israelis bombed a nuclear reactor that was under construction with North Korean help (which would be bad enough).  The prevailing theory is far from conclusively established because (1) the intel has been kept from nearly everyone, including Congress [see Update 1] and most of the intelligence community, (2) no neutral monitor appears to have even asked to inspect the site, and (3) it’s a theory that largely relies on the conclusions of David Albright. [...]

]]> By: DPRK Forum » When Marcus Noland speaks, we should listen http://freekorea.us/2007/10/21/the-unstoppable-self-destruction-of-kim-jong-il/comment-page-1/#comment-55248 DPRK Forum » When Marcus Noland speaks, we should listen Wed, 24 Oct 2007 07:06:58 +0000 http://freekorea.us/2007/10/21/the-unstoppable-self-destruction-of-kim-jong-il/#comment-55248 [...] Sounds kind of like the Great Leap Forward. Also, as One Free Korea posted, China does not seem too happy about the reselling of rail cars for scrap (back to China no less), and looks like they are punishing North Korea for it. I believe North Korea is not punished enough for the crap they pull, and in the typical Kim Jong Il way, he stabs his friends in the back. If he does that with his friends, how much more will he do with his enemies? Yes, you know the answer to that question. [...] [...] Sounds kind of like the Great Leap Forward. Also, as One Free Korea posted, China does not seem too happy about the reselling of rail cars for scrap (back to China no less), and looks like they are punishing North Korea for it. I believe North Korea is not punished enough for the crap they pull, and in the typical Kim Jong Il way, he stabs his friends in the back. If he does that with his friends, how much more will he do with his enemies? Yes, you know the answer to that question. [...]

]]> By: Joshua http://freekorea.us/2007/10/21/the-unstoppable-self-destruction-of-kim-jong-il/comment-page-1/#comment-55224 Joshua Tue, 23 Oct 2007 09:18:02 +0000 http://freekorea.us/2007/10/21/the-unstoppable-self-destruction-of-kim-jong-il/#comment-55224 Thanks, Evan. That link is well worth a read. Thanks, Evan. That link is well worth a read.

]]> By: usinkorea http://freekorea.us/2007/10/21/the-unstoppable-self-destruction-of-kim-jong-il/comment-page-1/#comment-55217 usinkorea Mon, 22 Oct 2007 22:24:30 +0000 http://freekorea.us/2007/10/21/the-unstoppable-self-destruction-of-kim-jong-il/#comment-55217 I do think, however, that that control of local elites could be reinstated at pretty much any moment the regime gets enough cash and material wealth to dole out itself. I think it will be much easier then to keep the local, regional, and capital elite happy than it has been to get the same kind of control back on the local peasants as they had before the famine. I do think, however, that that control of local elites could be reinstated at pretty much any moment the regime gets enough cash and material wealth to dole out itself.

I think it will be much easier then to keep the local, regional, and capital elite happy than it has been to get the same kind of control back on the local peasants as they had before the famine.

]]> By: Joshua http://freekorea.us/2007/10/21/the-unstoppable-self-destruction-of-kim-jong-il/comment-page-1/#comment-55216 Joshua Mon, 22 Oct 2007 17:41:16 +0000 http://freekorea.us/2007/10/21/the-unstoppable-self-destruction-of-kim-jong-il/#comment-55216 I also remember reading about this issue before -- tried but failed to find a link -- but before, I didn't really assess those reports as credible. I also find it difficult to believe (as I stated above) that KJI is the mastermind of this. I think it's another symptom of regime decay at the local level, and probably we'll see order temporarily restored in the usual manner: public firing squad. Remember the story about the slogan trees? Same deal, I suspect. I also remember reading about this issue before — tried but failed to find a link — but before, I didn’t really assess those reports as credible. I also find it difficult to believe (as I stated above) that KJI is the mastermind of this. I think it’s another symptom of regime decay at the local level, and probably we’ll see order temporarily restored in the usual manner: public firing squad.

Remember the story about the slogan trees? Same deal, I suspect.

]]> By: Richardson http://freekorea.us/2007/10/21/the-unstoppable-self-destruction-of-kim-jong-il/comment-page-1/#comment-55214 Richardson Mon, 22 Oct 2007 14:04:57 +0000 http://freekorea.us/2007/10/21/the-unstoppable-self-destruction-of-kim-jong-il/#comment-55214 The rail-cars thing has been going on for years, they just got fed up with it (again). The rail-cars thing has been going on for years, they just got fed up with it (again).

]]> By: Bruce Klingner http://freekorea.us/2007/10/21/the-unstoppable-self-destruction-of-kim-jong-il/comment-page-1/#comment-55213 Bruce Klingner Mon, 22 Oct 2007 13:21:09 +0000 http://freekorea.us/2007/10/21/the-unstoppable-self-destruction-of-kim-jong-il/#comment-55213 typo. should read: ...the same incident is now occurring... typo. should read: …the same incident is now occurring…

]]> By: Bruce Klingner http://freekorea.us/2007/10/21/the-unstoppable-self-destruction-of-kim-jong-il/comment-page-1/#comment-55212 Bruce Klingner Mon, 22 Oct 2007 13:18:42 +0000 http://freekorea.us/2007/10/21/the-unstoppable-self-destruction-of-kim-jong-il/#comment-55212 Stealing the railcars as well as Chinese response would be a local-level issue rather than actions by or signals from the political leadership in Pyongyang and Beijing. Several years ago there was a lot of debate amongst Korea watchers over what signal the chinese leaders in Beijing were sending to Pyongyang because they had cut off all economic interaction with NK. Was seen as a sign Beijing was getting tough, etc. It turned out to be the same incident as is not occurring, Chinese provincial officials stopping future rail deliveries until NK returned several thousands of railcars. NK returned them, Chinese trade resumed. Stealing the railcars as well as Chinese response would be a local-level issue rather than actions by or signals from the political leadership in Pyongyang and Beijing. Several years ago there was a lot of debate amongst Korea watchers over what signal the chinese leaders in Beijing were sending to Pyongyang because they had cut off all economic interaction with NK. Was seen as a sign Beijing was getting tough, etc. It turned out to be the same incident as is not occurring, Chinese provincial officials stopping future rail deliveries until NK returned several thousands of railcars. NK returned them, Chinese trade resumed.

]]> By: vanmidd http://freekorea.us/2007/10/21/the-unstoppable-self-destruction-of-kim-jong-il/comment-page-1/#comment-55210 vanmidd Mon, 22 Oct 2007 04:45:06 +0000 http://freekorea.us/2007/10/21/the-unstoppable-self-destruction-of-kim-jong-il/#comment-55210 tend to agree with usinkorea - I think a great deal of North Korea today operates outside the apparatus of official government, and more in the vein of a raggedy, corrupt, self-serving elite. The fact of the trains going missing strikes me as the work of NK opportunists, not the regime. The same with the trucks. If you think of North Korea as a country run by a kind of quasi mafia, many in the lower levels have their own operations, independent of the upper leadership. The traffic I saw at the Dandong border, going in and out, was a mix of men in uniform, Chinese, and North Koreans not even wearing badges. I think in that sort of environment, official policy matters a lot less than Yuan does. The military is still the main enforcer, but everyone can be bought in North Korea. As far as the nuke test, not sure that was a stupid move at all from Mr Kim. Certainly seems to have paid off, both as a money cow, a military deterrant and a local propoganda tool. The test shot over Japan? Nationalist madness? Another domestic propoganda stunt? Probably a big mistake. The Syria reactor? Looks like it might not have been such a bad idea, if they got paid on time; doesn’t seem like there’s going to consequences for it, although i could be wrong, and time will be the judge of that. tend to agree with usinkorea – I think a great deal of North Korea today operates outside the apparatus of official government, and more in the vein of a raggedy, corrupt, self-serving elite.

The fact of the trains going missing strikes me as the work of NK opportunists, not the regime. The same with the trucks. If you think of North Korea as a country run by a kind of quasi mafia, many in the lower levels have their own operations, independent of the upper leadership. The traffic I saw at the Dandong border, going in and out, was a mix of men in uniform, Chinese, and North Koreans not even wearing badges. I think in that sort of environment, official policy matters a lot less than Yuan does. The military is still the main enforcer, but everyone can be bought in North Korea.

As far as the nuke test, not sure that was a stupid move at all from Mr Kim. Certainly seems to have paid off, both as a money cow, a military deterrant and a local propoganda tool.

The test shot over Japan? Nationalist madness? Another domestic propoganda stunt? Probably a big mistake. The Syria reactor? Looks like it might not have been such a bad idea, if they got paid on time; doesn’t seem like there’s going to consequences for it, although i could be wrong, and time will be the judge of that.

]]> By: China halts flood food aid | korean unification studies http://freekorea.us/2007/10/21/the-unstoppable-self-destruction-of-kim-jong-il/comment-page-1/#comment-55196 China halts flood food aid | korean unification studies Sun, 21 Oct 2007 22:09:21 +0000 http://freekorea.us/2007/10/21/the-unstoppable-self-destruction-of-kim-jong-il/#comment-55196 [...] Update: OFK has a good take on the story, placing the blame more squarely on Kim Jong-Il and some updated sources. Share This Sphere: Related Content [...] [...] Update: OFK has a good take on the story, placing the blame more squarely on Kim Jong-Il and some updated sources. Share This Sphere: Related Content [...]

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