Ummmm . . . Eamonn? I kinda think that what you describe hypothetically actually describes the present situation. With fine accuracy.

Yeah, point taken unfortunately. I was thinking at first more along the lines of China just outright annexing parts or all of North Korea, but why would they want to do that?

Japan, China, and South Korea would have some trouble accepting withdrawal of all US troops from the South, because they would (somewhat rightly) fear it would reduce US interest in rebuilding North Korea, and major US involvement there is vital to its success and stability in East Asia post-collapse.

Japan would be highly disturbed about a US pullout of South Korea – fearing – as some have predicted, it would naturally lead to a pullout of Japan as well. I have never bought that idea. I’d think the opposite is more true: that Japan and Japanese society would take a look at the prospect of no US troops in East Asia, crap their pants, and then smooth over some of the rough spots Okinawa, Japan, and Japanese society has had in hosting USFJ. I could even imagine Japan asking the US to significantly beef up its forces in Japan if/when the US leaves South Korea.

Regardless of that, however, a US pullout of SK would lead Japan to significantly beef up its military — which in turn would send big ripples throughout the region.

It will be interesting to see what South Korea does with North Korea’s nukes post collapse if/when Korea is unified.

Even if the South destroys the North’s nukes and the North Korean threat is gone, if the US takes troops out of South Korea, there would be a push in Japan to nuclearize in the face of an militarily strengthening China —- and China will step up its already considerable effort to beef up after the North collapses.

I don’t know if China would want to see US troops stay in South Korea post-collapse and unification in order to keep some limits to the East Asian arms race. I kinda doubt it: I think China thinks the 21st Century is going to be theirs and they will triumph no matter what anybody does. I don’t think they are going to be overly scared of an arms race with Japan and eventually not too worried about the US either.

usinkorea, have you heard about the Glans Plan for North Korea? Here it is:
1. PRC stays out.
2. ROK annexes DPRK.
3. USA gets out.

What do you think?

Stability will be top priority for those nations. SK, Japan, the US, and then the EU and Russia will be interested in preventing the worst from happening post-collapse. SK, Japan, and the US will be willing or forced to provide large amounts of aid for a considerable period of time. But, if China moves in with the territorial outlook typical of previous examples like and prior too Kosovo, but especially an example where only 1 nation was in charge (like the US and Soviet Union in the Koreas post-WWII), it will be politically difficult (and inadvisable) for those nations to pump in that kind of money and resources.

Stabilizing NK and beginning the long process of rebuilding its infrastructure will take a large multinational effort. China could and should be a part of that, but if it decided to move boots on the ground and run the show, the multinational effort that could have been will collapse, and NK will remain a source of trouble (not as big as now) until China gives up wasting massive resources and works out a pull out deal with other nations.

I don’t think the US should put soldiers into the North or put enough bureaucrats on the ground to try to run the show either. I think that would unnecessarily retard stabilization and rebuilding too due to the amount of hatred propaganda generated over the entire life-times of most North Koreans.

It should be a South Korean show with much oversight in South Korea.

South Koreans will be the most acceptable people for Northerners to stomach post-collapse. South Koreans will also be palatable to both the US and China and Japan – the three nations who will end up paying gobs and gobs of money and resources for the North post-collapse. And South Korea is capable for spearheading such an effort.

They would certainly be capable of the job —– if the concerned nations could put aside differences and do much planning to handle things post-collapse. But, even the US and SK could not sit down to hammer out real plans before the current occupants in the Blue House took up residency. And forget about Japan, SK, and China being able to make detailed plans on how to bury the NK regime once it dies…

If China is half as smart in geopolitics as many Western experts have said over the last twenty years, it will have learned the lesson of the Soviet (and previous Chinese) involvement with North Korea from the 50s to the Soviet collapse: Russia (and China) poured massive amounts of aid into the North in an effort to prove communism was best by making the North more advanced than the South. But the effort was failing even before Russia cut the North off. The North’s infrastructure and ability to provide basic consumer needs of its people, even with multinational support, was failing before the 1990s – though it was hard for people outside of the North to see it at the time.