i really was wishing for a ceacescu moment.

More than likely, he’ll be assassinated as the start of final collapse.

While North Korea has been a dangerous but politically amusing neighbor for China, under Kim Jong Il it has become too much of a liability. China cannot continue to send food aid to North Korea while food prices continue to climb for Chinese citizens. They cannot risk food scarcity or public resentment at home.

Meanwhile, China cannot risk some political adversary gaining power in North Korea… even on the more remote chance. Beijing will want to ensure that any transition is swift, unchallenged and that the new leader is acceptable to Beijing.

My prediction for the next 6-months is that China has already selected and probably prepared a new North Korean successor. A food crisis will be terrible in May and June, becoming reported around the world. Kim Jong Il will become desparate and lash out through the media with increasingly desparate, illogical statements. His transition will be swift, from president to prisoner within a week. He will never again give a press interview or see the inside of a courtroom for more than an hour, just long enough to be sentenced.

The new leader will assume command of the government, enforcing a state of emergency and martial law (as if there was any other kind in N.K. these days) for a week until things quiet down. South Korea, China and the U.S. will quickly arrange to send emergency food shipments to end the starvation and ensure the position of the new stable government.

These food shipments, successor and in fact the timing have already likely been secretly agreed upon and arranged. All will probably occur prior to the olympics. We don’t want regional starvation and a potential unstable nuclear power neighbor to ruin the olympic ceremonies after all. We want things to be neatly, tidily resolved.

6-months from now: new N.K. leader, same government, food aid returns in twice normal amounts, N.K. and S.K. having their first serious summit under a new government and a spirit of cooperation.

They need a way to save face and backpedal to “engagement” mode, but I don’t think LMB is about to give them one. All they can do is keep ratcheting up tensions and hope LMB blinks.

- A violent suppression of one or more large public protests, resulting in a temporary restoration of the regime’s control and a worsening food crisis;
- Significant loss of life due to famine, mass internal migrations, and a real refugee crisis along the Chinese-NK border;
- Significant internecine conflict within the regime, which may trigger regime collapse or the balkanization of the country into de facto feifdons.

Can you give a prediction as to the status of the North 6 months down the road?

What are we looking at, here?
Best case scenario?
Worst case scenario?

Can you give a 6 month prediction as to what the status of the North will be?