Is State Backing Away from N. Korea’s Terror De-Listing?

If you want to know what I think, no.  I think it’s posturing.  But Yonhap catches some significance in these remarks that I had missed:

“It’s a 45-day minimum notification, but we certainly expect, and we’re watching very carefully, to see20whether or not North Korea is going to come through on the essential issue, which is verification, and to act accordingly,” Rice said. “I just wanted to clarify it’s a 45-day minimum notification, not maximum.”

Rice reiterated her skepticism about the North’s declaration of its nuclear facilities and activities.

“This declaration has left some questions,” she said. “Nobody is going to trust the North Korean number on how much plutonium they need. One of the facts is that in this process, thus far, we have learned more about some activities, questionable activities in North Korea than, frankly, we had learned before we engaged in this process.”

North Korea has said it has acquired 37 kilograms of plutonium from its Yongbyon nuclear reactor, but the U.S. intelligence community believes it should be up to 50 kilograms.

“Fortunately, there are very good, tried and true, as one of my colleagues called it yesterday, international — internationally recognized methods to verify the number of kilograms of plutonium make,” Rice said.  [Yonhap]

Translation:  trust me.   The fact that Rice  feels compelled to say things like this — which can’t fail to aggravate the North Koreans — can only mean that  Rice’s move to delist North Korea  as a  terror-sponsor is  in some degree of peril  in Congress.  She knows that North Korea gave a low-ball estimate on the plutonium, and she’s trying to cover her right flank by suggesting that what is undone can be done again,  though she knows very well  it won’t be.

Several additional points:  (1) you can’t  get complete verification without a complete declaration, which North Korea still  hasn’t given us; (2) she isn’t exactly saying that de-listing is conditional on verification, she’s only hinting; (3) if Congress doesn’t object within 45 days of June 26th, she has the power to  de-list North Korea on, say, election day, when nobody’s looking.   Waiting longer than the 45-day minimum  gives  her  the flexibility to do just that while looking hawkish.  All she wants to do is give Congress enough reassurance to give her — and Kim Jong Il — carte blanche.

One point that’s occurred to me recently is that with conditions improving rapidly in Iraq and with even the Iraqis saying it will be safe enough for us to withdraw most  of our  forces  2-3 years from now, the differences between the candidates  have narrowed, and  McCain  can’t make Iraq his signature national security issue.  Winning wars — the current trajectory, though hardly a foregone conclusion — has a way of putting those issues into the past tense.  McCain needs to keep national security issues in the foreground because those are the issues where he has an advantage over Obama.  Iran is one of these.  North Korea is another.  It hardly hurts McCain much if by pressing those issues, he splits from a highly unpopular incumbent administration, something he’s never hesitated much about doing before.  A forceful denunciation of this deal from McCain would probably derail it in Congress, and if you read his words carefully, McCain has laid a good foundation for that.  Obama’s position, though punctuated with moments of  skepticism,  is more “nuanced.”

I’ll give you a fuller quote from Rice below the fold for more context.

This is an excerpt of Rice talking to reporters at the Shangri-La Hotel in Singapore on 24 July 08: 

QUESTION:  — on this, the President said that the terrorism list ““ he notified Congress there is a ““

SECRETARY RICE:  Right.

QUESTION:  — 45-day period.

SECRETARY RICE:  There’s a 45-day notification period, which is a minimum notification period.  I think it should be very well understood that unless we’re satisfied that we can verify the declaration, we’ve been very clear that we’re taking that into our assessment of when to go forward.

QUESTION:  But does that mean that you want the protocol to be agreed on and accepted by the North Koreans by this 45-day deadline?

SECRETARY RICE:  Nick, as I said, it’s a 45-day minimum notification, but we certainly expect, and we’re watching very carefully, to see whether or not North Korea is going to come through on the essential issue, which is verification, and to act accordingly.

QUESTION:  One question on ““

MR. MCCORMACK:  Nicholas, we got five minutes left, so why don’t we give some of your colleagues ““

SECRETARY RICE:  Yes, (inaudible).

QUESTION:  My question wasn’t right.  No, I meant are you still going to delist North Korea before it (inaudible) the protocol?  That’s my question.

SECRETARY RICE:  As I said, we will have to know about the prospects for verifying this declaration, because the President’s made very clear we’re going to take that into account before we make any decisions.  But I just wanted to clarify it’s a 45-day minimum notification, not maximum.