Comments on: How Will We Know When It’s Time to Leave Iraq?

By: Sonagi

Sonagi — Thu, 05 Mar 2009 17:26:47 +0000

“So if in five years, Iraq is prosperous, reasonably free, at peace with its neighbors, and no longer requires a major U.S. military commitment to either occupy or contain it, would you agree that the war advanced the interests of America, Iraq, and the world? “

I would like to qualify my response. I would judge the invasion to have advanced the interests of the US after weighing our costs versus benefits. I am not in a position to do this for Iraq. Only the Iraqis can weigh their costs versus benefits and determine whether they are better off.

By: SYL

SYL — Wed, 04 Mar 2009 23:12:02 +0000

I wonder if “just cause” for war/military intervention abroad are not over-stated. Ultimately, the “just effect” of the intervention/occupation matters more. The Vietnam War still casts a long shadow less because of the lack of rationale for intervention (dominoes, Gulf of Tonkin “incident,” and American misperception of some Communist monolith bent of world domination) and more because the US lost. The public turned against the war in the wake of the mounting casualties and the realization that the war was “unwinnable.” The fall of Saigon in 1975 and the US “betrayal” of South Vietnamese matter less in the American consciousness than the belief that the war was a “waste” of precious blood and resources.

The US intervention in Korea in 1950 was packaged as “just” with great care by the Truman administration, that nascent, still-paper-organization called the UN and anti-Communism as its banner. That may have been helpful in winning public support at first–a fortuitous development that would not happened if not for the Soviet boycott–but the US would have gone in alone with or without the UN or some earlier form of the coalition of the willing. That “unwinnable” war turned public opinion in the US against Truman and the Democrats, with Eisenhower being elected in late-1952.

At the time, especially toward the latter phase of the war, the US intervention was largely see as a “wast.” By the spring of 1953, 70% of Americans supported an armistice with the present division of Korea, whereas only 30% supported such an ambiguous end in June 1951 (and 54% in June 1952). Korea is seen today as a success mostly because of the success of the South Korea as a modern nation state and far less because of the circumstances under which the US took military action in a largely unknown land–a land in which it had professed repeatedly that it had no strategic interest.

By: Sonagi

Sonagi — Tue, 03 Mar 2009 23:04:40 +0000

Oh, definitely. And if Iraq is economically and politically unstable with continued sectarian violence, or worse, ruled by an Islamic regime, would you judge the invasion or the withdrawal a mistake? Your position is really a win-win situation. If Iraq succeeds, you can shout out, “I was right!” but if Iraq founders, you can blame it on the pullout.

By: Joshua

Joshua — Tue, 03 Mar 2009 01:08:17 +0000

Well, my opposition to our long-term presence in South Korea should have been a hint, but yes, I think a withdrawal within 18 months is now looking plausible, in part because of the “non-combat” residual force, consisting of non-combat advisors and non-combat Special Forces, who will conduct non-combat special ops against terrorists. Let’s watch how things go after the Iraqi election. There’s reason to be optimistic, primarily because Iraqis looked into the abyss and have rejected the extremists’ visions.

So if in five years, Iraq is prosperous, reasonably free, at peace with its neighbors, and no longer requires a major U.S. military commitment to either occupy or contain it, would you agree that the war advanced the interests of America, Iraq, and the world?

By: Sonagi

Sonagi — Mon, 02 Mar 2009 23:47:30 +0000

Sounds like you’re warming up to the prospect of a withdrawal in the near future.

“We may well be approaching the point where the benefits of staying will be outweighed by the benefits of going.”

We actually agree on something regarding the US military occupation of Iraq. Hell hath frozen over.