Archive for March 2009

Stuart Levey Renominated

March 25, 2009 Money Laundering, NK Economics No comments

Yes, it’s a perfectly excellent nomination by the Obama Administration for Treasury. No, I’m serious.

Stuart Levey, the Treasury Undersecretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence, played the key role in snipping North Korea’s financial lifelines in 2005 and 2006, starting with Macau’s Banco Delta Asia. Treasury’s effort ended when North Korea blinked and made a bunch of false promises to Chris Hill just to stop the pain, and Chris Hill duly made it stop. But no single U.S. government official had ever exerted any real influence on the North Korean regime until Stuart Levey dammed up Kim Jong Il’s steam of illicit income.

The Obama Administration will thank itself for keeping Levey around when Kim Jong Il launches the big rocket and he turns to the State Department for solutions and sees only shrugged shoulders and clucked tongues. Stuart Levey knows where the solution begins, and if he ever runs out of ideas, well, I can suggest a few more.

24 March 2009

March 24, 2009 Anju Links 2 comments

THE DAILY NK ALREADY HAS some details about the whereabouts of the American journalists Laura Ling and Euna Lee:

The information source also released that, “The emergency, that they had arrested American citizens, was immediately reported to the DSC, which supervises the border guard units. It was also reported to the headquarters of the 9th corps, which has jurisdiction over North Hamkyung Province. The two were sent to Pyongyang in the morning of the 18th after investigation by the special agents of the DSC. They were taken in separate cars, so as not to have contact with each other, escorted by armed vehicles.

I haven’t heard one U.S. government official demand their immediate release.

THE BUBBLE HAS POPPED: North Korea’s interfence with access to Kaesong has cost investors there $10 million. Good.

FOOD PRICES in North Korea stabilize, for now.

DID KIM JONG CHOL really go to school in Switzerland?

PREDATOR STRIKES ARE TAKING A HEAVY TOLL on al Qaeda. I’m not seeing the downside of that, and it may impede AQ’s effectiveness, but it won’t wrest the frontier regions from AQ control. That will only happen when the inhabitants have sufficient inspiration and weaponry to drive AQ out on their own.

Chris Hill’s Record of Success? Examples, please.

March 24, 2009 Uncategorized No comments

CHRIS HILL’S CONFIRMATION HEARING starts tomorrow, and the Weekly Standard has (second only to this blog) owned the story. Stephen Hayes relates the story of Hill’s insubordination to his bosses in talking directly to the North Koreans, which is a prohibition I find it hard to believe the last Administration was really serious about enforcing. Frankly, a writer of Hayes’s caliber could have done far better, and I hope he will yet.

Still, Hayes manages to do much better than the reliably shallow Joe Klein, whose lazy defense of Hill quotes Hillary Clinton gushing about Hill’s “persistence and success” in dealing with North Korea. The problem is that neither Klein nor Clinton can cite one tangible, meaningful example this success, and no, broken pre-owned promises don’t count. Care to try again?

Now here’s something I did not know, but which puts Hill’s sidelining of Kim Jong Il’s atrocities in some historical context. Remember Radovan Karadzic? He was the big-haired Serbian butcher who started and prosecuted a genocidal war that killed half a million Bosnians, and he apparently shared Kim Jong Il’s exquisite sensitivity at identifying an easy mark:

Christopher Hill, who was acting as Holbrooke’s “principal assistant” in the negotiations, pleaded with Holbrooke, on Karadzic’s behalf, to put the guarantee in writing. To Holbrooke’s credit, he refused. It’s hard to muster much outrage at Holbrooke’s conniving to get Karadzic to step aside, but that he continues to lie about his role in the negotiations is far more troublesome.

Hill’s role is less easily defended. The primary objection to his appointment as Ambassador to Iraq was his lies before a Senate Committee seeking assurance that human rights would remain at the fore of his negotiations with the North Koreans. Now we know that Hill was similarly sympathetic to Karadzic, who was responsible for some of the worst atrocities in the wars that tore apart Yugoslavia. He was willing to grant Karadzic immunity for those abuses in writing, even though as Holbrooke later conceded to one source, Karadzic never held up his end of the bargain.

This is precisely the complaint against Hill’s work in North Korea — a willingness to offer written guarantees in exchange for the easily broken pledges of men who, like Karadzic, ought to be charged with crimes against humanity. And his reward for this will be a post in Baghdad? [The Weekly Standard Blog]

Hill’s efforts may have jeopardized efforts to hold Karadzic accountable for, among other crimes, the shelling of Sarajevo, the death camp at Omarska, and the massacre at Srebrenica. This must be more of that “smart, tough” diplomacy we were promised.

Great Ideas That Won’t Work: A Korea-Japan Alliance

March 24, 2009 Asia, China, Geopolitics One comment

For reasons I laid out here in January, pragmatism is making gradual gains on emotion in Seoul and forcing Japan and South Korea to understand that their interests have aligned:

A senior South Korean government official recently remarked that if the U.S. and North Korea speed up too much in bilateral talks, Japan could play a role in “slamming on the brakes.” He appeared to be suggesting that any bilateral negotiations bringing Washington and Pyongyang together after the North has launched a rocket next month could proceed too fast in the direction of normal diplomatic ties for the comfort of South Korea.

While is not against direct talks between Washington and Pyongyang, it feels a stop must be put to North Korea’s brinkmanship tactics, i.e. to ratcheting up tensions to speak to the U.S. direct and make diplomatic gains. And it is here, the official suggested, that Seoul-Tokyo cooperation comes in. “Japan was once considered a stumbling block to solving North Korean issues,” another South Korean official said. “But now has the most important role.” [Chosun Ilbo]

First reaction: since the beginning of the third Clinton Administration in 2006, the United States has sacrificed the interests of traditional Pacific allies to China. So where is the sinister whispering campaign about the China Lobby and its controlling interests in a cabal of ideologues who’ve penetrated the U.S. government? And while the media haven’t completely ignored China’s large-scale oppression of its subjects, Tibetan monks and landless Chinese farmers have far to go to achieve the radical chic adoration that Hamas has.

Second reaction: The problem with battling the emotion of the Korean Street is that you never know when it will roar up and smash years of intricate statesmanship. No wonder it’s so difficult for South Korea to form coherent diplomatic strategies. For the sake of apologies for what can’t be undone, the Korean Street turns away from saving the comfort women of their own time. Yet who believes that ten years from now, Koreans will be chopping off their fingers at the offices of the Hankyoreh or demanding apologies from the politicians who appeased the North’s regime at the cost of uncounted, unmourned North Korean lives? As is so often the case, Koreans shouldn’t have to look abroad to find the source of their own despair.

But they will.

And of course, the Korean Street’s obsessions extend to things that are simply inexplicable. Maybe the next baseball game should be for Tokdo, with the loser agreeing to renounce all claims forever.

Collapse of N. Korea’s Planned Economy, Rise of Markets Improve Food Supply

March 23, 2009 Deprogramming, Famine & Food Aid 2 comments

North Korea’s government, for reasons that are not clear, has begun allowing cash transactions for food imports, and the result is a significant increase in food flowing into North Korea’s ports:

As a result, Shinuiju harbor is witnessing a mass importation of rice and flour from China for the first time. The amount of food imports, which started to increase in early February, has reached its peak in late February and early March, importing 800 to 1,000 tons of rice and flour everyday. Prior to the changes, an average of 500 tons of food was imported daily.

The sources also say that three to four cargo ships enter into Shinuiju’s military-appointed harbors, such as the Dong Yang harbor (exclusive warship for the Escort Command) and the Kang Sung harbor (exclusively for the Ministry of the People’s Armed Forces), transporting daily imports. The amount of food these ships carry everyday reaches from 800 to 1,000 tons. As the rations are disembarked, they are immediately purchased by the awaiting wholesale traders and distributed throughout the country. [Open Radio]

One’s immediate suspicion is that the food imports would be allocated to only a select few; however, Open Radio also reports that as North Korea’s underground economy continues to develop, the imported food is flowing across district and provincial boundaries, and into North Korea’s hungriest regions. The decline of North Korea’s planned socialist economy means more abundance and more equality.

Repeat after me, kids: capitalism saves.

Separately, Open Radio also reports that South Korean food products coming in from Kaesong, including ChocoPies, chestnut bread, and coffee mix are hot sellers on the black market. It’s probably obvious enough to North Korean consumers that these products are from South Korea, which may have something to do with why the North Korean regime is moving steadily toward shutting Kaesong down. Kaesong proponents have claimed that their project would change the North by exposing its people to the lifestyle of the South. And since pretty much day one, I’ve predicted that as soon as such an effect was discernable, the North Korean regime would shut the project down.

Kim Jong Il Now Parade Magazine’s World’s Third-Worst Dictator

March 23, 2009 Famine & Food Aid, Kim Jong Il One comment

In a statement released by KCNA, Kim’s publicist thanked academy members for their votes and said that it was an honor just to be nominated.

And in related news — sit down for this one — here’s the latest report that North Korea has been diverting international humanitarian aid. Yet another survey shows that need North Koreans never saw a spoonful of it, except for sale in the markets at prices they couldn’t pay. The charge appears not to have gone unnoticed at KCNA. Frankly, North Korea’s reaction has done more than anything to convince me that criticism of its human rights record actually matters.

Update: Sure, you can debate which dictatorship is the most evil; on the other hand, you really can’t debate which one is the funniest. HT.

Unless, of course, you happen to live in North Korea.

Imagine being surrounded by so much ridiculousness you don’t dare laugh at:

No, I suppose they probably don’t actually find it very funny (sigh).

Iran Still Not Feeling the Whole ‘Hope and Change’ Thing

March 21, 2009 Iran One comment

The idea of an outreach to the Iranian people would have made sense — up to a point — had Obama spoken through the despised mullahs rather than to them. Yet the great irony of Obama’s attempt to connect with Iranians is that it probably convinced them that he’s completely out of touch with their aspirations and reinforced popular notions of America as decadent, weak, and self-absorbed:

Khamenei set the bar impossibly high — demanding an overhaul of U.S. foreign policy, including giving up “unconditional support” for Israel and halting claims that Iran is seeking nuclear arms. Iran insists its nuclear program is only for peaceful energy purposes.

“Have you released Iranian assets? Have you lifted oppressive sanctions? Have you given up mudslinging and making accusations against the great Iranian nation and its officials?” Khamenei said in a speech in the northeastern city of Mashhad. The crowd chanted “Death to America.”

Despite Obama’s offer, the State Department still lists Iran as a sponsor of terrorism for its backing of militant groups such as Lebanon’s Hezbollah. In Iraq, U.S. officials accuse Iran of aiding Shiite militias whose targets have included American soldiers.

“He (Obama) insulted the Islamic Republic of Iran from the first day. If you are right that change has come, where is that change? What is the sign of that change? Make it clear for us what has changed.” [AP]

Shaping our message correctly ought to have begun with grasping a few essential truths: first, Iranians hate their own government; second, in a political and cultural sense, they hate us and will continue to for the foreseeable future; third, in an economic and (again) cultural sense, they would like more contact with us. This isn’t a typo, it’s just a highly enriched form of a familiar contradiction in how the world sees America: they want Best Buy, Christina Aguilera, and Jenna Jameson, and they also want all those impure things shielded from the virgin eyes of everyone else.

Being loved is harder than we some of us had thought.

Chris Hill Update: Man Tells Lie, Lie Catches Up With Man, Dog Bites Man

March 20, 2009 Diplomacy, Terrorism/Iraq, U.S. Politics 4 comments

The Washington Times, reporting that Senator Brownback is increasingly open in his threat to hold Chris Hill’s nomination as Ambassador to Iraq, relates just the latest story of Hill misleading a member of Congress:

In [a] hearing on July 31, in response to a request to bring Jay Lefkowitz, who was a special envoy for North Korea human rights, to future talks, Mr. Hill said, “I would be happy to invite him to all future negotiating sessions with North Korea.”

When contacted Thursday, Mr. Lefkowitz said he was not invited to any talks with North Korea after Mr. Hill’s promise.

“I can certainly understand why Senator Brownback is upset because, in point of fact, even after Ambassador Hill’s commitment to the senator last summer, human rights never found its way into the six-party talks,” Mr. Lefkowitz said.

Mr. Brownback told The Times that Mr. Hill “did mislead me in open testimony before the Armed Services Committee.” [Washington Times]

The Weekly Standard blog has more of the latest on how Brownback is standing firm, and surveying some of the embarrassing arguments in Hill’s defense. One argument that no one should make is that Brownback is doing this for partisan reasons. It wasn’t a Democrat who nominated Kathleen Stephens, after all.

The administration is drawing serving military officers into politics by asking them to publicly support Hill’s confirmation, and from the perspective of generals Petraeus and Odierno, this must be a very easy choice to make. They have nothing to lose and everything to gain by doing what their commander in chief asks. Whether Hill becomes ambassador or not, they don’t want Holbrooke holding a grudge against them (assuming he survives that whole AIG thing). They may also need some points in the bank with this administration if they want to stretch out a withdrawal timeline or plead for an extra brigade if the security situation hits a rough patch. On the other hand, Petraeus and Odierno know that they have the support of McCain, Graham, and most congressional Republicans no matter what. As they should, for the best of reasons.

A much less convincing argument the administration is making is that we can’t afford to leave the post of ambassador vacant at this critical time. But who ever asked them to leave it vacant? Obama could make this same dumb argument if he’d nominated Carrot Top for the job, and frankly, it’s a statistical fact that this is the least critical time for Iraq since the invasion, thanks to the mostly unheralded brilliance of our counterinsurgency campaign there. In that light, it would seem more important to choose well than to choose quickly. Surely there are dozens of better qualified candidates within arm’s reach of Holbrooke or Clinton with more experience with the region, counterinsurgency, or even minimally effective diplomacy. Hill’s atrocious performance in dealing with North Korea and his increasingly obvious character shortcomings show us just how quickly and easily the President could do far better than picking a congenital liar to lead our most important diplomatic mission.

For new readers measuring the length of Hill’s nose, start here.

20 March 2009

March 20, 2009 Anju Links No comments

WHEREVER THEY ARE NOW, LAURA LING AND EUNA LEE are having a rough day, and that’s about all we know for certain. Although it’s not much more than speculation, the L.A. Times’s Barbara Demick suggests that Ling and Lee might have strayed into North Korean territory. Underground railroad hero Chun Ki Won doesn’t think the North Koreans would have crossed into China:

“They must have gone in too close, where it was dangerous. I don’t think the North Koreans would have dared to come out into China to kidnap Americans.”

Unless the North Koreans knew who these two women were, they would not have assumed that two Asian women in Asia were Americans. The soldiers would most likely have assumed that two well-dressed women with cameras lingering near the border were South Korean or Japanese.

South Korea’s YTN Television today quoted an unnamed source saying that the women might have crossed onto the North side unwittingly because recent drought had left river levels so low it was difficult to see the border. Another South Korean report said they were arrested after they refused to stop filming. [L.A. Times, Barbara Demick]

Chun is wrong about that. As Sonagi points out, North Korean troops have a history of crossing into Chinese territory to kidnap refugees … and the occasional American, something that could not happen without China’s complicity. They killed Rev. Kim Dong Shik, so their fate is far from assured. Laura Ling and Euna Lee took a big risk to tell us the truth, so please keep them in your thoughts.

COUNTERFEITING UPDATE: G.I. Korea points to a fascinating article by a man who claims to have gone undercover to catch the gang that conspired to smuggle North Korean supernotes into America.

Liu was a major player in a criminal conspiracy in which I purchased $2 million of the counterfeit bills. I was told by a co-conspirator with whom I negotiated that I was soon to be the exclusive distributor of the bills in the United States. I would be limited to a mere $40 million annually, purchasing the bills for about 30 cents on the dollar. [The Economic Reader, via GI Korea]

I’ve been told by a knowledgeable source that about five years ago, an indictment against the North Koreans was all ready to be filed, naming all of those who were involved in the conspiracy. Then, at the last minute, political interference got the indictment stopped. Three guesses where that interference came from.

AUSTRALIA IS HOSTING a conference on human rights in North Korea, and the surprisingly (for the U.N.) effective Special Rapporteur Vitit Muntarbhorn will speak there.

WHOA, YOU MEAN THERE REALLY IS AN AXIS OF EVIL? “An Iranian defector told the West that Iran was financing North Korean moves to transform Syria into a nuclear weapons power, leading to the Israeli airstrike that destroyed a secret reactor, a report said Thursday. The report, written by Hans Ruehle, former chief of the planning staff of the German Defense Ministry, details an Iranian connection and fills in gaps about Israel’s Sept. 6, 2007, raid that knocked out Syria’s nearly completed Al Kabir reactor.” [link]

CHINESE SOLDIER KILLED, MACHINE GUN STOLEN. Maybe I shouldn’t make too much of one incident, given that we don’t even know who did this, but it seems to me that if a government doesn’t permit the peaceful resolution of grievances, then people will continue finding violent ways to resolve them.

19 March 2009

March 19, 2009 Anju Links 6 comments

THE WEEKLY STANDARD BLOG is reporting that Senator Brownback is publicly threatening to hold Chris Hill’s nomination, which would doom it. TWS points out that Brownback isn’t running again and has little to lose by raising the ire of Sen. Richard Lugar. Lugar, who represents the State Department in the Senate, is also Chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee.

IT WAS LUGAR, you will recall, who quietly torpedoed the nomination of John Bolton as U.N. Ambassador, despite the fact that Bolton rammed the only effective U.N. resolutions on North Korea through the Security Council. The Obama Administration, Japan, and South Korea now see those same resolutions as their main diplomatic leverage in preventing a new North Korean missile test. Which all goes to show you how much irony there is in this world.

YES, I FIGURED AS MUCH: North Korea is now demanding light-water reactors before it allows verification. With all of the excellent questions this new demand raises, my favorite is “verification of what?,” given that there has been zero actual disarmament.

THEY DENIED IT, SO IT MUST BE TRUE, RIGHT? South Korea denies that it is considering closing the Kaesong Slave Labor Industrial Park.

OBAMA LEADING WAR MANIACS‘ PLOT FOR HEGEMONY! Says KCNA:

The concentration [they mean USFK restructuring around Camp Humphreys, south of Seoul] is a revelation of the U.S. undisguised scenario to perpetuate the presence of the U.S. imperialist aggressors in south Korea and realize its ambition to dominate the Asia-Pacific region.

Why do they still hate us? By the way, this must be the perfect KNCA headline: “Ever-victorious DPRK Led by Great Brilliant Commander.”

IT’S A QUAGMIRE! NO END IN SIGHT!

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