Succession Watch

According to Open Radio for North Korea, party officials are already announcing Kim Jong Un’s succession.  Me:  maybe so, but that doesn’t translate to him holding real power.  I’m still waiting for the KNCA tributes to his academic achievements, martial spirit, invention of a new edible grass, and his single-handed responsibility for the Great DOS Attack of 2009.  Nor is there any reason to think that KJU would rule differently than his father did.  Strawman: But he went to school in Switzerland — those foreign influences!   Me:  Yes, and we all know his dad’s fondness for western movies, and probably all the internet he wants.  It isn’t the king who’ll get subversive ideas from foreign influences.

3 Comments

  1. My eye is on collapse. My gut tells me that the kind of terror the Kim clan has used to rule that society so ruthlessly for so long might not withstand the transfer of even symbolic power to a third generation Kim that is so young and so unprepped to be the next demi-god.

    I think history might end up reading that Kim Jong-Il’s megalomania and unwillingness to risk someone else having too much power did him in – because he did not take the many years to lay the foundation for his successor like his father did for him…




    0



    0
  2. Regime collapse is the most likely scenario. Succession could be the catalyst for it. 9 million Norks on the verge of starvation this winter won’t exactly strengthen the new regent, either.

    Tick… tick… tick… tick…




    0



    0
  3. My bet; no regime collapse in the near-term, with two caveats; 1) no collapse within a couple of years of KJU taking the reins, and 2) not b/c of the elite class selling him (and/or his handlers) out.

    Those that do KJI’s bidding want to retain that power and, as they proved in the famine of the mid-90s, they will do anything to do so. That includes backing KJU. If the regime falls, the elites would not have any known options more attractive than the power they know now.




    0



    0