http://freekorea.us/2009/07/31/marcus-noland-on-sanctioning-north-korea/ Wed, 23 May 2012 10:34:56 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.2 http://freekorea.us/2009/07/31/marcus-noland-on-sanctioning-north-korea/comment-page-1/#comment-68262 derwoolley Fri, 31 Jul 2009 22:51:57 +0000 http://www.freekorea.us/2009/07/31/marcus-noland-on-sanctioning-north-korea/#comment-68262 The 2007 USGS Minerals Yearbook reports that the Hyesan Youth Copper Mine began to flood in its main adit in 2006 when the nearby Samsoo Hydro dam began filling. The mine reportedly produced about 80% of North Korea's copper and was expected to operate for 40 more years. Mine flooding of this nature will render the mine useless unless new primary tunnels are drilled that are themselves separated from the area that is flooding. That may not be possible. This represents a catastrophic loss of production of an important industrial mineral. It may not be an isolated incident. Looking at Google Earth, one is struck by the absence of evidence of actual work at the heavy industry sites at which mine products are used. There are few chimneys showing steam or coal smoke, far fewer than one would expect from a country that prides itself on self-reliance and socialist production. The Hyeson news suggests that, like Iraq under Saddam, the infrastructure of North Korea is in such a depleted condition that it is not really functioning at all. It appears that North Korea's mine output is exported to China (except for gold, which is exported to Thailand) rather than going to major local use. That suggests that North Korea is peculiarly susceptible to even moderate compliance by China with sanctions orders. But serious sanctions by China will introduce it to the unfortunate news that Beijing is as close as Tokyo to a Korean nuke. Still, sanctions now are preferable to mushroom clouds later. The 2007 USGS Minerals Yearbook reports that the Hyesan Youth Copper Mine began to flood in its main adit in 2006 when the nearby Samsoo Hydro dam began filling. The mine reportedly produced about 80% of North Korea’s copper and was expected to operate for 40 more years.
Mine flooding of this nature will render the mine useless unless new primary tunnels are drilled that are themselves separated from the area that is flooding. That may not be possible. This represents a catastrophic loss of production of an important industrial mineral. It may not be an isolated incident.
Looking at Google Earth, one is struck by the absence of evidence of actual work at the heavy industry sites at which mine products are used. There are few chimneys showing steam or coal smoke, far fewer than one would expect from a country that prides itself on self-reliance and socialist production.
The Hyeson news suggests that, like Iraq under Saddam, the infrastructure of North Korea is in such a depleted condition that it is not really functioning at all. It appears that North Korea’s mine output is exported to China (except for gold, which is exported to Thailand) rather than going to major local use. That suggests that North Korea is peculiarly susceptible to even moderate compliance by China with sanctions orders.
But serious sanctions by China will introduce it to the unfortunate news that Beijing is as close as Tokyo to a Korean nuke. Still, sanctions now are preferable to mushroom clouds later.

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