Sanctions Update

The Chosun Ilbo reports that Ambassador Phillip Goldberg has kept himself busy crossing the globe, meeting with government officials and bankers in Russia and China, and shutting down North Korean accounts, even as Stephen Bosworth and others met with the North Koreans to talk nuclear diplomacy.

North Korea invited U.S. North Korea envoy Stephen Bosworth on Aug. 4, when former U.S. president Bill Clinton was in Pyongyang to win the release of two American journalists. The same day, Goldberg was on his way to Moscow, where he met Russian Vice Foreign Minister Alexei Borodavkin and reportedly asked Russia to crack down on a mafia gang based on a tip-off that it had been involved in the laundering slush funds for Kim Jong-il.

South Korean and U.S. intelligence authorities believe that North Korea recently earned a lot of foreign currency by smuggling ivory from Africa and distributing fake Viagra as well as selling drugs and circulating counterfeit dollars.

The North allegedly laundered money or operated secret bank accounts with the help of the Russian gangsters after it became practically impossible for the North to carry out normal transactions using the real names of top officials or agencies. Russia then passed an advisory circular which the U.S. had sent around Russian banks. [Chosun Ilbo]

North Korea has also intensified its arms exports, shockingly, despite a U.N. resolution to the contrary.

According to the source, North Korea expanded arms exports even after UN Security Council Resolution 1874 took effect in the wake of its second nuclear test on May 25. “North Korea has developed new markets in Africa and Latin America, in addition to expanding exports to its existing markets in Southeast Asia and the Middle East,” the source said. “It seems the North is mainly exporting small vessels such as Hovercraft and patrol boats and Air Force equipment including radar and GPS to Africa and Latin America.”

The administration’s policy, for now, is to keep the pressure on, regardless of talks:

We are not going to reward North Korea simply for returning to the six-party talks. We will be looking to see if they’re prepared to take the kinds of affirmative steps that they’ve previously agreed to,” [State Department Spokesman P.J. Crowley] said.

“We have made clear to North Korea and we believe that North Korea understands what the purpose of the meeting is,” Crowley said. [Reuters]

And for what it’s worth, I think that generally, that’s the right approach, although there’s much more we could be doing (see Plan B link in the masthead). Worse, I’m guessing that the North Koreans will eventually promise to honor their previous commitments, we’ll somehow relax sanctions in exchange for bare promises to abide by those, and after a few years of stalling and cheating, North Korea will duly renege. But that’s just my speculation, one that’s backed by observing this traditional ceremony for years.

For now, the administration’s main worry continues to be back-stabbing by China:

Goldberg then visited China in late October to persuade his hosts to implement sanctions against the North. He pledged to concentrate on blocking any money flow related to weapons of mass destruction. There are fears that the sanctions lost their bite when China in early October promised the North a massive aid package, but some experts disagree. [Chosun Ilbo]

It’s strange; in contrast to an abundance of stunningly naive junk analysis from America’s brain trust on the topic of China’s intentions, I think the North Korean intellectuals interviewed by the Daily NK have it about right, assuming that this anecdotal report is accurate and representative:

The North Korean elite’s anti-Chinese sentiment that he described came as a real shock. Nevertheless, he said that although he has a more critical point of view of the Kim Jong Il regime than his colleagues, in general, opinions of China are the same as his own.

China has a so-called blood alliance with North Korea, is a country which fought for the North during the Korea War, and is the current life support system which provides it with the basic resources to maintain its system. After the second nuclear test, as international sanctions were being strengthened, Pyongyang tried to maintain its friendship with China in order to avoid isolation.

However, Choi did not hesitate to say, “China is more vicious than America,” before explaining, “We have been standing against America so far, but now people worry about living as a slave of China.

When The Daily NK’s reporter asked why China is blocking out the pressure from neighboring countries, including the U.S., he noted, “This is only because they need to do it for the sake of their interests, not for our security.

He added, “This is not just my idea, but that of almost every intellectual. He implied that significant concerns about the contradiction between Kim Jong Il’s nuclear plans and the Chinese role exist.

So, he claims, “Since he figured out the Chinese tactics, the Upper (Kim Jong Il) has been doing his best to escape from that situation.

Choi mentioned, “Since the nuclear test, the wariness of university students and intellectuals towards China has risen. Many of them think that we will be spoiled by China.

He emphasized, “The Chinese strategy towards our possession of nuclear weapons is to place itself as a world leader, surpassing the U.S. by using the Kim Jong Il regime. China is using our Republic’s adventurism.

Choi pointed out, “China has manipulated us to increase our stockpiles of nuclear weapons and missiles in practice while pretending to put pressure on us from the outside. On the one hand, they lead North Korea to obtain more nuclear weapons and missile by increasing the sense of crisis on the Korean Peninsula. On the other hand, they let us breathe so that the Kim Jong Il regime doesn’t collapse. [Daily NK]

No strain of xenophobia in North Korea really surprises me, but it does surprise me to see North Korean intellectuals, presumably members of the elite, rooting for the sanctions to work.

Meanwhile, a South Korean expert interviewed by the Daily NK warns us that North Korea’s foreign currency reserves might be greater than what we’re estimating, although it won’t do the regime any good if, as he suggests, much of that currency is in the hands of black marketers and corrupt officials. And on a related note, if this report is accurate, North Korea’s drug economy alone is the elephant in the back room of its larger underground market economy.

3 Responses

  1. Relations between Korea and China post-reunification is going to be even less smooth. A recent poll suggests that the Chinese are more fond of North Koreans than South Koreans. But what could that mean? It seems to me that this sentiment is rooted in their feelings of superiority over their wretched ally more than anything else. This is only going to lead to understandable misunderstandings in the future. It is inevitable that the DPRK will one day fall. And when descendants of North Koreans post-reunification start learning about China’s role in financing the DPRK hellhole, they are not going to be able to feel the gratitude, which I am sure the Chinese will feel they have justly earned from the Koreans. If we throw in inevitable border disputes and the history of North Korean refugees in China, it seems to me that descendants of North Koreans will one day lead the world in showing contempt for the Chinese. The Chinese may feel fondness for their allies today; tomorrow, they will be in for a surprise.

    ***

    I was very much heartened to hear Secretary of State, Hilary Clinton’s words on their North Korea policy in a recent interview in Germany with Charlie Rose.

    They talked about many issues, but on the North Korean issue, she revealed that the Obama administration believes that Kim Jong Il’s recent policy change to make diplomatic overtures is the direct result of America’s recent policy to tighten sanctions. I had not heard confirmation of this before. If this is the assumption the Obama administration is working under, then I am hopeful that the administration will not make counter-productive concessions. Also, Obama, Hatoyama, and Lee intend to maintain a united front on the issue of complete nuclear disarmament. Since everyone is aware that Kim Jong Il has no intention of disarming, at least without a prolonged fight, it seems to me that further tightening of sanctions are inevitable.

  2. So NK is really just China’s leverage? They not only encourage but are the designers of the country so that they can be the next world leader?

  3. Not all of us were offering “naive junk analysis” of NK-China; Harpers linked to this piece in August which analyzes the rather broad basis in North Korea for anti-Chinese sentiment.

    Like you, I’m glad Daily NK is running the interview you analyzed and hope to see more similar material. The idea that China can become the target of North Korean citizen ire for aiding the country is particularly interesting.

    No comment yet on this otherwise-comprehensive blog about the French foray into North Korea? I mean, like, aren’t the French even more tempting targets than various Oakland activists?

    Of course, it’s possible that Jack Lang is in Pyongyang to lay down the gauntlet on human rights (he professed a desire to do this), in which case I hope you’ll support his mission. Perhaps as a gift he brought a nice oil painting of the Bastille being stormed.

    After all, as the Rodong Sinmun pointed out yesterday in a throwback to 2003 editorial, “where independence is infringed upon, there always comes resistance and where there is resistance there always comes a revolutionary struggle.”