Comments on: Daily NK: Angry North Koreans Attacking, Killing Secret Police

By: Andrew

Andrew — Wed, 03 Feb 2010 16:07:09 +0000

Joshua, I think you hit the nail on the head with “food on the shelves” in relation to other totalitarian regimes. In the end, every army fights on its stomach – this is why I couldn’t imagine North Korea being able to wage any type of protracted war, especially against the South (unless of course, there was a little help from Big Brother across the Yalu). The one thing that does scare me is that after the government falls, North Korea turns into a land of factionalized warlords raping villages to feed their soldiers, but North Korea started out with little arable land, and there’s even less now, and I don’t forsee a whole lot of aid shipments being sent to regional warlords – but again, if China were to support one of these warlords as a puppet it could turn out pretty bad.

By: KCJ

KCJ — Wed, 03 Feb 2010 13:50:07 +0000

Jeremy, the military itself is being peeled off by the balloon launches with leaflet drops coming from North Korean defectors who have converted to Christianity. Check out my reply here. This is the real crisis in the DPRK that I don't hear many people discussing. That is largely due to our (US) cultural myopia which relegates religion to a ghetto of periphery and fails to recognize the role of religion on modern battlefields (SEE: Iraq).

By: Jeremy

Jeremy — Wed, 03 Feb 2010 11:22:19 +0000

Have you guys seen this article in the LA Times it's a good summary of what's happening and contains some new information. Has the revolution arrived? I'd like to think so but two problems remain. First the North Korean government has allows no civil society apart from the state (like clubs and religion) to serve as a nucleus for rebellion. And second as long as the military remains loyal the Kim dynasty is relatively safe, which is what "military first" is all about. If something does happen I think it is likely to proceed with startling rapidity.

By: kushibo

kushibo — Wed, 03 Feb 2010 10:18:49 +0000

As I wrote here, the way Daily NK described the situation on the ground right now is uncannily like the tipping point of death calculus we were talking about in December. Frankly, I'm getting the feeling that we're closer to regime collapse than most of the powers-that-be realize. Everyone except us will be surprised.

By: KCJ

KCJ — Wed, 03 Feb 2010 07:33:32 +0000

Sorry, forgot to post the link to the Strategy page...

By: KCJ

KCJ — Wed, 03 Feb 2010 07:32:25 +0000

Jeff, Don't forget this was being reported in December by the Strategy Page:

The government has, for the last two decades, been living in fear of how suddenly the communist governments of Eastern Europe fell in 1989. Some North Korean officials are thinking that 1989 has arrived in North Korea, and it's time to implement the escape plan. One rumor coming out of North Korea is that the officials who came up with the currency exchange plan have since been arrested and executed. However, these guys would be scapegoats, as it is widely believed that the currency exchange idea came straight from leader Kim Jong Il. ...if Kim Jong Il died tomorrow, there could be a power struggle, that could get very violent. There are indications of that from Chinese reporting North Korean officials increasingly arranging to establish second homes in China, and sending children, and even wives, there. Defectors report that there is an escape tunnel, from the capital, to the port of Nampo, which would enable officials, in an emergency, to secretly flee to China by sea.

If any of this is true, regime collapse could be imminent.

By: Horace Jeffery Hodges

Horace Jeffery Hodges — Wed, 03 Feb 2010 04:14:02 +0000

Living is Seoul as I do, I have to admit to a certain anxiety, fueled by the possibility that the North might lash out at all enemies as the regime goes down. Now is the time for the US and South Korea to be attempting secret contacts with Northern elite who might have more to lose if the North lashes out.

Jeffery Hodges

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By: The_Incredible_HUK

The_Incredible_HUK — Wed, 03 Feb 2010 02:34:16 +0000

Joshua, there is arguably good that came out of this currency revaluation – despite the inflated prices, the lost lives (suicides, executions), the emotional suffering – if locals did indeed assault uniformed personnel, this could serve as an example to those who might engage in uprisings in the future, even if the authorities manage to find and kill any culprits through the “50-Day Battle.”

Furthermore, enough civilians were pissed off enough to an extent that they will not soon forget how they got screwed over by the government. These civilians knew the daily grind of making your own money in the markets; they tasted wealth, even if fleetingly, and they will not forget how it felt to have some security as the reward of one’s capitalistic endeavors. This knowledge, added to their awareness that the state’s propaganda (at least about Kim Jong-Il ensuring everybody is provided for) is a mendacious myth, will last – and it could be a contributing factor to any future rebellions or uprisings.

I, for one, wouldn’t mind “arming” potential North Korean dissidents. What I’d worry about is a George H.W. Bush/Kurds 1991 incident, where the dissidents get outgunned and crushed by the state’s security forces, when they perhaps expected the US or the ROK to come to their rescue. Were this to happen, they wouldn’t trust Americans or South Koreans later on, would they?