Archive for February 2010

23 February 2010: “The Little One”

Kim Jong-Eun still has a way to go to gain the adoration, much less acceptance, of the North Korean elites:

According to a high-level source, the nickname of Kim Jong-il’s heir, Kim Jong-Eun, is “the little one.” According to multiple sources, the North Korean elites officially call Kim Jong-Eun “the great leader” and “successor of the great accomplishments of the military-first policy,” but inofficially, Kim Jong-Eun is referred to as “the little one. “The little one” is usually used in North Korea to refer to children or younger siblings. It is also used to refer to a boss who does not have enough credentials.

Kim Jong-Il’s nickname is “pot belly.”

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Did China oppose the succession of Kim Jong-Eun? While I can see reasons for China to oppose anything that would make North Korea a less stable puppet, I’m skeptical about any reports sources to high levels in the North Korean or Chinese regimes.

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What is the likelihood of Kim Jong Il’s indictment in the international criminal court? Low, if it depends on governments taking action:

“Under ICC rules of procedure and evidence, it’s impossible for the court to investigate or indict North Korea on its own, because North Korea is not a signatory to the Rome Statute,” Kwon said. “But South Korea and Japan can ask the ICC to place Kim on trial if they are determined, because crimes like abuse of South Korean POWs and abduction of South Korean and Japanese citizens took place within the territories of the two countries, which are signatories to the Rome Statue and are within ICC jurisdiction.”

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Another report that South Korea will step up demands for the return of its abducted citizens.

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A Korean expert suggests putting a time limit on the six-party talks to discourage North Korean stalling. Personally, I see much cosmetic value in the six-party talks, and I like the idea that there are open lines of communication — at least among the other five parties — in the event the Kim regime becomes unstable, or in the event that there’s a striking enough change in conditions that real progress becomes possible. That isn’t the case now, of course. But the answer isn’t to cut off diplomacy, it’s to invest our policy in the constriction and subversion of the regime while pretending to emphasize diplomacy. President Obama seems uniquely well postured to carry off that pretense credibly, if he’s smart enough to shift the emphasis of his policy toward more promising directions.

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North Korea’s indigenous word processing software is called Changdeok 7.0:

Another Changdeok system indicating the absolute power of Kim Il-Sung and Kim Jong-il are CTRL modifier keys. for “Kim Il-Sung” and for “Kim Jong-Il” are only modifier keys allowed in the Changdeok system These special characters and modifier keys is one side of Kim Il-Sung’s and Kim Jong-Il’s idolization. But, considering “Kim Il-Sung” and “Kim Jong-Il” in North Korean published works must be in bold text, special characters and modifier keys are for convenient editing processes as well.

Someone has managed to invent software even crappier than Vista. The lack of competition tends to have similar results in different places.

Kremlinology Updates

Will the failure of The Great Confiscation set back Kim Jong-Eun’s “succession?”

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Kim Jong Il’s sister, Kim Kyong-Hui, is the reported beneficiary of a power shift in North Korea. That makes sense from a certain logical perspective: the regime needs a “bridge figure” to maintain the magic of Kim Il Sung’s dynastic bloodline, and Kim Jong-Eun just isn’t looking very ready to be that figure.

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But behind the scenes, my guess is that Jang Song Thaek will end up in control:

Quoting an anonymous source in Washington, Radio Free Asia said yesterday that Jang Song-thaek, brother-in-law of Kim Jong-il and a senior Workers’ Party official, recently had extensive discussions with economic experts. During the sessions, which reportedly went on for several days, participants analyzed the causes of the reform’s disastrous failure and brainstormed ways to revive the economy.

22 February 2010: The End of the Age of Unifictions

Some 56 percent of South Koreans have a negative view of North Korea and 70 percent feel threatened by the North’s nuclear arms, a poll suggests. But 87 percent support another inter-Korean summit. [....]

“The percentage of people with a negative view of the North in the latest poll is now as high as before the Sunshine Policy,” said Choi Jin-wook, a senior researcher at KINU. “It seems that the poll reflects how people were affected” by the North’s second nuclear test, long-range rocket launch, and an inter-Korean skirmish in the West Sea last year.

Some 90.8 percent of respondents said there is a “slim” chance that the North will abandon its nuclear weapons. Some 53.1 percent believe that there has been no big progress in inter-Korean relations while 15.8 percent said relations deteriorated. Some 51.5 percent hold the North responsible for the worse relations. A vast majority, or 80.3 percent, of respondents approved of the South Korean demand to investigate the fatal shooting of a South Korean tourist at Mt. Kumgang resort in July 2008 and promise prevention of similar incidents as preconditions for resuming package tours to Mt. Kumgang. [Chosun Ilbo]

The dissolution of the unifiction fad that peaked during my time in Korea relieving, but the distrust of North Korea and hatred of America aren’t mutually exclusive, either. South Korean public opinion is so unstable and fundamentally anti-American that it’s difficult for any South Korean president to behave like an ally of the United States, as opposed to a dependent. Probably the best that can be done is to slowly weed out and fire the teachers who continue to indoctrinate South Korean children with fascist ideology.

[Update: More from the Joongang Ilbo.]

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Another sign that South Korea continues to move right: Park Geun-Hye is polling well for the next presidential election, which is still two years away. A lot can change in two years in Korea. []

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More evidence that the sanctions are working: weapons interdictions are certainly a good thing, but my suspicion is that Treasury’s warnings to financial institutions are having the greatest impact.

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North Korea can’t keep the lights on at night or feed its people, but somehow, it finds the money to buy expensive gear to detect and jam cell phones, and the electricity to run it:

One defector, who uses the alias Han Kyung Il, was previously in contact with relatives in Onsung-kun, North Hamgyong province, in North Korea.

“The North Korean authorities are jamming cell phone signals, and it is practically impossible to make a call,” he said in an interview. “You can switch phone cards, and the call appears to go through, but nobody in North Korea picks up.

North Korea also appears to have made overseas purchases of expensive cell phone tracking and jamming equipment, which it has installed at various locations in Shinuiju, Hyesan, and Hweryong in the border area near China, according to North Koreans living in border areas as well as those in South Korea.

North Koreans in the border areas–still reeling from a recent currency devaluation that wiped out many people’s savings–say this new difficulty in communications has made it harder to request much needed assistance from North Korean defectors in South Korea. [Radio Free Asia]

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North Korea releases census data: While there’s little reason for confidence in any data compiled by the North Korean regime itself, there’s a nice hat tip to Curtis at the end.

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Another earthquake in North Korea’s far northeast.

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More on the penetration of North Korea by independent journalism.

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A moving “mission accomplished” essay, from someone who fought and endured loss to accomplish it.

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Anti-Semitic incidents are now at their highest level since World War II.

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South Korean Leftists Should Take a Tip from Oh Kil-Nam

To Oh, a left-leaning South Korean economist, defecting to North Korea with his entire family seemed like a peachy idea at the time (1985). Today, Oh is one of a very few people who has a souvenir photograph of his family standing in the snow at Camp 15, the infamous Yodok Camp described by Kang Chol-Hwan in “The Aquariums of Pyongyang.”

As it turns out, “the relevant organ” means the large intestine.

His activism attracted the attention of North Korean agents, who approached Oh and offered help with a family medical problem. His wife, Shin Sook-ja, a South Korean nurse, was sick with hepatitis. The North Koreans convinced Oh that she would get free first-class treatment in Pyongyang and he would get a good government job.

“My wife did not want to go,” Oh said. “I ignored her objections.”

Via East Germany and Moscow, the family arrived in Pyongyang on Dec. 3, 1985, Oh said, and was immediately taken to nearby mountains for indoctrination at a military camp. “The moment we stepped into that camp, I knew my wife was right and that I had made the wrong decision,” Oh said. [Washington Post, Blaine Harden]

As it turns out, the reality of North Korea’s universal health care fell significantly short of Oh’s expectations. Instead, Oh and his wife were put to work broadcasting propaganda to the South until he was ordered to return to Europe:

[A]uthorities ordered Oh to return to Germany and recruit more South Korean students to live in North Korea. His wife and daughters, he was told, could not go along. Oh recalls that he and his wife argued bitterly about what he should do.

“She hit me in the face when I said I would come back with some South Koreans,” Oh said. “She said I could not have that on my conscience. She told me to leave North Korea and never come back. She told me to think of her and our daughters as being dead from a car accident.”

Technically speaking, of course, “slave laborer at a political prison camp” is a government job.

Yes, Mr. Oh, you’re a fool. How unfortunate that your wife and daughters paid such a terrible price for that.

In Case You Weren’t Listening for the Last 20 Years: North Korea Swears Never to Disarm

The North Korean regime seldom makes a promise, in my opinion, that it really intends to keep. For instance, I don’t think it has the slightest intention of spending all that confiscated cash on meat soup instead of yachts and other goodies of that sort for The Great Fishwife. But I think, for once, they’re sincere when they say this:

North Korea vowed Friday (February 19) not to give up nuclear arms for “petty economic aid”, claiming it has only developed them to counter what it called US nuclear threats, according to South Korea’s Yonhap News. The North’s official Korean Central News Agency said the reason the communist country pursued nuclear arms is not to bargain them for economic benefits but to counter “the deepening US nuclear threats.”

“We have tightened our belts, braved various difficulties and spent countless (amounts of) money to obtain a nuclear deterrent as a self-defense measure against US nuclear threats,” the KCNA said in an editorial monitored in Seoul. “We never meant to seek ‘economic benefits’ from someone or threaten others.” [....] “Only fools will entertain the delusion that we will trade our nuclear deterrent for petty economic aid,” the KCNA said. [Korea Herald]

Fortunately for Kim Jong Il, Washington in general and the State Department in particular are densely populated with delusional fools. Some of them would still extend a lifeline to Kim Jong Il’s regime for nothing more than returning to six-party talks, despite the fact that North Korea’s return to the talks by itself is of no consequence if it’s determined to concede nothing, or to abide by nothing it concedes.

I seize on statements like this, while engagement-minded analysts have seized on occasional statements that disarmament was Kim Il Sung’s dying wish. Who’s right? Me, of course! First, Kim Il Sung is dead; second, the wording of those statements is consistent with preconditions that make them completely meaningless; and third, I have two decades of well-documented insincerity going for my side of this argument.

Despite some very naive-sounding rhetoric from Candidate Obama, the Obama Administration’s policy, unlike Bush’s, has been consistent with a growing acceptance that North Korea has no intention of disarming. I have several working theories for this, which aren’t mutually exclusive: (a) President Obama really doesn’t care enough about North Korea policy or foreign policy in general for the Christine Ahn types to have any influence over him; (b) just as Roh Moo Hyun exerted undue influence on Bush’s Korea policy, Lee Myung Bak’s manifestly more competent diplomacy may have undue influence over Obama’s; (c) North Korea’s own behavior in early 2009 made further concessions politically toxic; and (d) a fairly hard-headed group, probably in the NSC, has dominated the making of policy toward North Korea.

The real test will be what the Administration decides to do as its affirmative policy once they accept that diplomacy alone will get us nowhere. That will require an epiphany that the regime itself is the problem, that China is not helping us, and that it would be better for China to deal with some unrest on its border than for North Korea to continue exporting weapons and WMD technology to terrorists and their state sponsors (the latter risk being one that China’s rulers gleefully accept).

Were the Taliban Casing Yongsan?

By what unhappy accident did the muses of Seoul’s urban planning put a large mosque with a significant population of Pakistani fundamentalists in its congregation smack-dab on top of Hooker Hill? Walking through Itaewon shortly after 9/11 and shortly before my DEROS date, watching chitrali hats and shalwar kamiz coexist uneasily with spandex mini-dresses, Dimple scotch, and crowded nightclubs frequented by U.S. military personnel, I confess to having thought: it’s just a matter of when.

A Pakistani man who claims to be a member of the Taliban has been arrested for passing through South Korea 17 times on a fake passport, police said Friday, revealing problems with the country’s immigration control ahead of a summit of the world’s 20 major economies in November, according to Yonhap News. [....]

“He entered Korea with his own passport in 2001 and stayed through June 2003. He confessed that he was asked by Taliban leaders to collect information about the U.S. military bases in Korea,” an office with the Seoul police said. [Korea Herald]

The 31 year-old man entered Korea under the false pretense of being a religious leader of “a local mosque in Korea.” This isn’t the first report of Taliban and other al-Qaeda-linked groups operating in South Korea, either. This is from 2008:

A total of 74 foreigners were arrested or expelled by the National Intelligence Service over last five years in 19 terror-related cases, on charges of plotting attacks, goading anti-American sentiment and spying on the U.S. Forces Korea, according to classified documents released Sunday. Some of them allegedly had connections to al-Qaeda. “We obtained secret information that some Muslim extremists planned an attack on U.S. Army bases in Korea, so we expelled the people related to the plot,” an NIS official said. [....]

According to the NIS report, eight members of Jemaah Islamiyah (JI), a Southeast Asian militant Islamic organization, were expelled from Korea after a plot to attack foreign embassies in Korea had been discovered in Oct. 2004.

Expelled, mind you, not waterboarded — and if the tales told to me by Army CID or fellow prosecutors are at least partially true, that would mean these guys got off lighter than suspected drug dealers in the hands of the Korean National Police.

Recently, the NIS has arrested a number of people involved in illegal foreign exchange transactions and drug smuggling linked to the Taliban. In Feb. 2007, 10 South Asians were arrested over illegal foreign exchange transactions worth W40 billion in collaboration with a global hawala or informal money remittance network. In May, four Arabs were arrested for smuggling in drugs from Afghanistan linked to the Taliban. In July, two Arabs were arrested trying to supply the Taliban with acetic anhydride, a key material for heroin manufacture, via Korea. [Chosun Ilbo]

Aside from putting most of Hooker Hill — and the awful King Club in particular — off limits, I’m not sure how one mitigates this risk consistent with the principles of basic human equality, and generally not punishing whole groups for the actions of a repellent few. Besides which, if you shut down one club, the soldiers will overcrowd some other place. Curfews will work to some extent, but I suspect this risk will exist as long as Seoul is full of American soldiers.

Another dangerous facet of these reports is that if North Korea wanted to hit Americans in South Korea, reports like these offer the North Koreans plausible deniability.

6.7 Earthquake Hits Tri-Border Area Near Rajin, N. Korea

No word on damage or injuries in the area yet, but 6.7 is a pretty big quake. In 1994, an earthquake of equal magnitude centered at Northridge, California, killed 72 people and injured 9,000 more.

Though area residents said they did not feel the quake, office towers in Beijing — about 770 miles (1,240 kilometers) away from the epicenter — swayed slightly for about a minute.

The quake occurred 335 miles (540 kilometers) below the earth’s surface.

With earthquakes centered deep underground, sometimes those close to the epicenter don’t feel it while people further away notice some shaking, said the duty officer at the Seismological Bureau of Yanbian Korean Autonomous Prefecture in northeast China’s Jilin province. He refused to give his name as is common among Chinese officials. [AP]

Hopefully, that means everyone is OK. See also.

17 February 2010

Two must-read articles in Foreign Policy by my friend Professor Sung Yoon Lee, on the topics of Kim Jong Il’s mortality and how to manage North Korea’s reconstruction. I don’t agree with all of the ideas, but they’re well worth reading. I wish I had time to analyze them in more depth, but I haven’t had time to so much as skim them myself yet.

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Been meaning to link this one for a few days — Kushibo notes that President Lee is starting to show some spine on getting back South Korean abductees and POW’s from the North. In short, Lee is acting like what DJ and Roh weren’t — statesmanlike leaders who protect their country’s citizens.

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A former North Korean agent claims to have met Megumi Yokota in North Korea.

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Open News’s post-mortem on The Great Confiscation.

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Electricity shortages are delaying train service.

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A report and Open News’s analysis on the state forcing trading companies to merge. It seems to be a more incremental approach to the war against capitalism, but given previous reports that influential figures control or profit from these trading companies, there could be unintended consequences.

Succession Watch

A valued reader and friend writes in to draw my attention to reports that North Koreans named “Kim Jong Eun” have been ordered to change their names, echoing a 1974 edict withholding the name “Kim Jong Il” from use by mere mortals. My churlish friend suggests “Chung Hee” as an alternative. Nice.

Just to put this in perspective, it’s blasphemy for a North Korean to be called Kim Jong Eun, yet there are millions of kids named Jesus all over Latin America who come running every time grandma sneezes.

Freedom Rising

The video shows North Korean defector Pak Sang Hak and a group of energetic supporters sending birthday greetings to Kim Jong Il on his birthday (the 16th). They send one dollar bills wrapped in thin, light plastic leaflets. In the past, pro-North Korean fifth columnists have tried to stop these balloon launches. This time, they were not in evidence.