Mike Chinoy Responds

chinoy_mike.jpgYou know, if I’d realized that Mike Chinoy, former CNN correspondent and author of “Meltdown,” was reading all those things I was writing about him, I might not have been so mean. Why was I not informed?

Dear Joshua,

I am a regular reader of OneFreeKorea, which I have always found interesting and thought-provoking, despite the darts you regularly send my way. I have not responded to your frequent criticisms, but under the current circumstances, and given your derogatory comments in your Nov. 22 post, I thought it would be helpful to try to clarify some of the points you raise in your sweeping critique of my work on “Meltdown.

First, you seem to forget that my book is a work of reporting, not a “venting” of opinion. The episodes described, as well as the judgments and assessments I tried to make, were based on interviews with scores of people on all sides of the debates over North Korea policy in Washington, Seoul, and Tokyo, and Beijing, as well as insights gleaned from more than a dozen reporting trips to Pyongyang while I was a correspondent for. CNN. I didn’t begin the project with a preconceived view. I simply tried to recount the history as I uncovered it from my research.

Your suggestion that I somehow “missed” the story of North Korea’s effort to acquire a uranium enrichment capability is simply not true, as any careful reading of “Meltdown” will show. Read chapter 5, called “The Scrub,” for example. It recounts in great detail the intelligence findings on what the North was trying to do as regards uranium.

Of equal importance is what I note on the first page of chapter 6:

“But many questions remained. How advanced was the program? Had a production facility actually been constructed? How many years would it take before bombs could be produced? Above all, what were Pyongyang’s motivation and its ultimate intentions in starting the acquisition effort? And here, the consensus that had been achieved on the procurement intelligence broke down. In interpreting the information and considering a policy response, the same ideological biases and political turf battles that had marked earlier debates over what to do with North Korea reemerged.

This was the reality at the time. Serious people in Washington had real disagreements over what the information on uranium meant and what to do about it. I didn’t make up the fact that there were divisions in the government and intelligence community, nor twist the information I got through my reporting to fit a preconceived agenda.

On page 112, for example, I quote Robert Joseph, who was then at the NSC and advocated a tough line towards the North. When I asked him in an interview about the debate in the Bush administration over what Jim Kelly’s instructions should be for his October 2002 trip to Pyongyang, he said: “What are you going to do, ignore that they’re pursuing nuclear weapons through enriched uranium, which is in violation of the Agreed Framework and the NPT and the safeguards?”

On the same page, on the same issue, I quote Colin Powell, who told me that Joseph and other critics of engaging Pyongyang “wanted to use this [the uranium intelligence] as a flaming red star cluster into the sky that the North Koreans have cheated, abrogated the Agreed Framework, we always told you that was a bad idea. I didn’t take sides. I was just reporting what they said — which clearly underscored the sharp divergence in views among administration policy-makers.

In relation to acquiring a uranium weapons capability, the questions about just what the North has been trying to do, has actually done, what kind of facility it might be able to build, when it might be operational, and what would be the best policy options for the U.S., have been controversial issues in Washington over the past decade. Even today, there are different assessments of how far along they are, as well as differences over what kind of policies would best address these very real concerns. The fact that the North has now shown a uranium facility to Siegfried Hecker answers some questions, but raises many more. And it in no way eliminates the questions, doubts, and internal debate over North Korea policy that I chronicle ““ accurately and fairly, trying to understand and recount the motivations and actions of all sides ““ in “Meltdown.

You and I clearly have different views about how to deal with North Korea, although we are unquestionably on the same page in agreeing on its awfulness. And I can imagine how satisfying it is to launch jabs over the Internet at people whose opinions do not coincide with yours. But as bad as the North Korean system is, to paint my efforts at careful reporting and analysis of this situation in the black and white terms your regularly use is unworthy of the kind of intelligent and thoughtful discussion all of us who care about Korea’s future ought to be having.

Best regards,
Mike Chinoy

You know, Mr. Chinoy, nothing wrecks the ambiance of an ankle-biting blog post so much as a detailed, thoughtful, and classy response, so let me begin with a point of agreement. I think we can agree that the Bush Administration’s North Korea policy was a long, vacillating failure, even if we wanted the administration to vacillate in opposite directions. While I believe that you and I approach these topics with a desire to make objectively defensible arguments, we also approach these topics with strong beliefs, preconceptions, and biases. I suppose mine are more evident to you than they are to me, and I’ll leave that where it is.

Yes, we’ve always had and still have doubts about the specifics of North Korea’s uranium program, the number of centrifuges, and the level of enrichment. My post acknowledged that. Indeed, some of the most damning evidence of North Korea’s HEU program emerged after the publication of your book. We can argue about these minutiae until doomsday, but isn’t the broader debate pretty much over? In retrospect, can we agree that the most plausible interpretation of all of this evidence, culminating with what the North Koreans have just shown Dr. Hecker, is that North Korea has been working toward a uranium enrichment program all along? All of those centrifuges weren’t made just last year. Doesn’t this lead to the conclusion that North Korea has been dealing with us in bad faith? Three American presidents have now offered North Korea diplomatic outreach, aid, and relations in exchange for disarmament, and yet those outreaches have done little to slow North Korea’s progress toward a nuclear arsenal. Supporters of Agreed Framework I can fall back on citing some temporary freezes of the plutonium reactor, but it has never taken North Korea especially long to find an excuse to kick the IAEA monitors out. Can you really argue that we have anything to offer Kim Jong Il that he wants more than nuclear weapons, and if so, on what basis?

The thoughtfulness of your response ought to earn you much respect from my readers. You’d earn even more if you could concede, in retrospect, that the North Koreans were playing a double game with the HEU program, and probably for the duration of two agreed frameworks. It certainly looks that way today.

10 Responses

  1. What would be even nicer would be for the illustrious crew over at the 7th Floor of a certain building in Foggy Bottom to issue a letter of apology, complete with a gift basket of fruit or jams or something, to the elected officials who they publicly ignored/privately ridiculed years ago for once again pointing out what we now know to be irrefutable fact.

  2. Mike Chinoy’s definitely a classy guy and thanks to both him and Joshua for sharing this exchange. I hope to hear his response to Joshua’s points.

    Mr. Chinoy, if you are reading these comments, I hope you can do me the honor of answering a brief question (or three). In a recent interview with the Australian Broadcasting Corporations’s The 7:30 Report, you said:

    The policy of sanctions and coercion hasn’t worked. The dangers of a military response getting out of control and setting off a new Korean war with devastating consequences are terrifying. That leaves only dialogue, and I think the dilemma for the US, for South Korea, for others is to figure out in this very charged environment how you can find a way to talk to the North Koreans before another series of episodes like what we’ve seen spirals out of control and makes a volatile situation even more dangerous.

    This past week, it has seemingly become de rigueur for North Korea experts to include some variation of the pattern, “We have no good options, so we have to X” where “X” is invariably “talk to them” or “strangle them with sanctions.” Obviously, you are in the former camp.

    We’ve tried talking to Pyongyang for the past twenty years under three different American administrations and four different South Korean administrations and I think we can all agree that we don’t have much to show for our efforts. North Korea continued to develop nuclear weapons at the same time they were cutting denuclearization agreements, they continued to provoke the South and Japan and changes in atmospherics were superficial at best, even at the height of the Sunshine Policy.

    So if you were conducting talks with North Korea, what would be the end goal of those talks and what could be done to ensure North Korean compliance with the agreements it makes? And most importantly, if you were in charge of the talks, what would you do differently this time around?

  3. “Doesn’t this lead to the conclusion that North Korea has been dealing with us in bad faith?”
    ———-
    Maybe it’s because I grew up in the SF Bay Area, but the type of common sense in this one sentence is so hard for some people. It’s hard for them to grasp the fact that evil exists and it doesn’t need a logical reason to. And we can’t talk them down.
    ————–

    to issue a letter of apology, complete with a gift basket of fruit or jams
    —————
    I’m a fan of sarcasm, so I love this sentence.

  4. [Comment deleted. Ernst, is that any way to treat a guest on Thanksgiving? Wanna try again? – Joshua]

  5. Mr Chinoy I have been following your views for over ten years and it is clear your are a leftist apologist for North Korea. You have certainly made light of NK actions with regard to uranium in the past. In your interview on Freash Air on 8/6/08 with regards to James Kelly’s claim that NK admitted having a uranium program you say “it is much less clear they did”. Several years ago while watching a CSPAN show an interview with a junior American official present at the talks heard the N Korean statement and backs up Kelly’s version. You clearly hold the US 90% responsible for the failure of US-NK talks. North Korea is never going to give up its nuclear weapons. Give them 500 billion dollars and a peace treaty and what ever they want, and they will still renege on any agreement and next time demand a trillion dollars. You leftists have a problem for seeing evil for what it is. In the 30’s, 40’s and 50’s leftists stabbed America in the back and embraced Stalin. You are their ideological heir. It even appears North Koreas former attorney Chris Hill has begun to change his tune. Tell me what South Korea got for its ten year sunshine policy and the 8-10 billion dollars they spent, the answer nothing. What will work with NK put pressure on their access to foreign banks and lay out for China the steps we will take against Chinese access to US markets. We can throw 20 million chinese out of work tomorrow and bring abourt a revolt in China if we have the balls to act. The problem is the treasonous idiots in Washington and Wall Street. Also inform NK that their aggressive acts like the shelling will bring down a rain of a million small radios all over North Korea. The leftists that control education in S Korea have destroyed the minds of their students and only one in ten would fight for their country. If you think that does not embolden little kimmy you are a fool Please tell me your plan to solve the North Korean problem and why do I know you will not respond.

  6. Perhaps your good friend at the Josef Korbel School of International Studies will chime in soon, also.

  7. My response to Bill Nye the skeptical guy is in the spam filter, but it includes a quote by Mr Assange about his motivations, which I wrote about in this post. It cites a PBS Newshour interview with Zbigniew Brzezinski, who thinks Mr Assange may be getting his information spoon-fed by agencies intent on embarrassing the US and its allies in adversarial governments and/or disrupting its policies.

    Rather than seeing the WikiLeaks dump as a wake-up call to North Korea (as I have suggested), he believes the revelations about Chinese leaders’ attitudes toward North Korea may have been intended to hurt the US and its relationship with China:

    Well, for example, there are references to a report by our officials that some Chinese leaders favor a reunified Korea under South Korea.

    This is clearly designed to embarrass the Chinese and our relationship with them.

    I don’t know if Mr Brzezinski is being too cynical and paranoid, or if I’m just not being enough.