Archive for December 2010

It’s Still “Business as Usual” Until Kaesong Closes

December 20, 2010 Appeasement, NK Economics 6 comments

Hmmm:

The government on Monday banned citizens from going to the Gaeseong Industrial Complex in North Korea, site of an inter-Korean reconciliation project, as tension on the peninsula remains taut. The Ministry of Unification, citing “security concerns” for South Koreans working there, said it would monitor the situation and decide on a day-to-day basis whether to recommence travel to the complex or other parts of the North.

“If the situation gets any worse, the ban could be extended,” an official of the ministry said. [....]

Under the ban, the more than 600 citizens who were scheduled to go to work at the industrial enclave were prevented from crossing into the North. The 200 South Koreans currently staying at the complex were not required to return to the South, but according to the ministry, more than 100 opted to do so.

In spite of everything, Kaesong still managed to expand its output last month. Certainly tensions and political interference will continue to deter new investment. Yet behind every South Korean diplomat, official, or politician who declares his outrage at the North’s attacks, threatens retaliation, or asks other nations to put pressure on the regime, Kaesong is the elephant that lurks with eyes downcast, trying to look as inconspicuous as an elephant can. As Defense Minister Kim Kwan Jin said, the continued operation of the complex “could hamper military responses to the North,” and with all of those potential South Korean hostages inside North Korea, it’s not hard to see why. There is also a very real question whether Kaesong’s largely unaccounted-for payments are consistent with the financial provisions of UNSCR 1874. Finally, there is the question of Kaesong’s “optics,” and what it does to Seoul’s diplomatic credibility when it demands that China, for example, exert financial pressure on North Korea. No matter how tough the ROK government talks, and even as the North attacks South Korean territory and kills its people, the continued operation of Kaesong screams “business as usual.”

North Korea Furious About Leaflets That Only Reinforce Loyalty

December 20, 2010 Subversion One comment

So … if the leaflet drops merely reinforce the loyalty of North Koreans to the regime, then what is the regime so upset about?

The North’s official Web site, Uriminzokkiri, said the bills are “nothing more than waste paper” and that the leaflets do little to undermine the pride of its people in the communist regime. “Such confrontational madness will only snap up the extraordinary alarm and ire of our army and people,” it said in a commentary.

North Korea’s military has warned it would shell South Korean sites used to send propaganda leaflets and broadcasts. On Nov. 23, the North shelled the western South Korean island of Yeonpyeong, killing two marines and two civilians in its first direct attack on an inhabited region in the South since the 1950-53 Korean War.

The other reason North Korea’s strong reaction is interesting is the extent of its own subversion operations in South Korea.

Sadly, I’m not sure North Korea is making empty threats. I hope the Fighters for a Free North Korea will take precautions about announcing their launch sites in advance, although I suppose it’s inevitable that at least one spy or fifth columnist will be able to report their movements. If you want to help, the North Korean Freedom Coalition contributes to FFNK’s leafleting operations. I can’t think of a way to make a small donation go further.

The Richardson Effect

December 19, 2010 Korean War II, Yeonpyeong Attack 24 comments

After a weather-related delay, South Korea says it is determined to continue with live-fire exercises in the Yellow Sea islands.

“The planned firing drill is part of the usual exercises conducted by our troops based on Yeonpyeong Island. The drill can be justifiable, as it will occur within our territorial waters,” said the JCS official. “We won’t take into consideration North Korean threats and diplomatic situations before holding the live-fire drill. If weather permits, it will be held as scheduled.”

The Wall Street Journal’s Evan Ramstad accurately describes what is really at stake here:

The test will take place on the South Korean island of Yeonpyeong, which North Korean forces shelled last month in what appears to be an effort to effectively redefine border territory in the Yellow Sea off the countries’ west coast. The shelling killed four South Koreans, two of them civilians. With the test, South Korea is walking a tightrope by trying to defend waters it has controlled since the Korean War of the 1950s in a way that doesn’t escalate into more fighting, which would threaten the safety of its 50 million people and the vibrancy of its economy, the world’s 15th-biggest.

In a move that’s certain to resolve absolutely nothing whatsoever, the U.N. Security Council is holding “emergency closed-door consultations.” North Korea, which was removed from the list of state sponsors of terrorism on October 11, 2008, is also threatening the United States:

In a statement, North Korea’s foreign ministry spokesman said: “We will be sure to settle scores with the U.S. for the extreme situation on the Korean peninsula. Our military does not speak empty words.”

See also:

Uriminzokkiri, the communist state’s official Web site, also said in a commentary that war on the Korean Peninsula is only a matter of time, stoking already high tensions after the North shelled a western South Korean island on Nov. 23 and killed four people. “If war breaks out, it will lead to nuclear warfare and not be limited to the Korean Peninsula,” it said.

It is also calling about 20 American military personnel who will participate in the exercises “human shields.”

I think it should be obvious whose fault all of this is: Bill Richardson! But to be completely serious, his visit shows no evidence of accomplishing the stated objective of reducing tensions. If anything, Richardson has given the North Koreans a louder media megaphone for its threats and encouraged its extortionate bombast. He also reminds us why we call him “Kim Jong Bill”:

“I hope that the U.N. Security Council will pass a strong resolution calling for self-restraint from all sides in order to seek peaceful means to resolve this dispute,” the statement read. “A U.N. resolution could provide cover for all sides that prevents aggressive military action.”

Substantively, this is indistinguishable from what the ChiCom Foreign Ministry is saying, and just as dangerously illogical. Let’s begin with the fact that North Korea specifically ceded four Yellow Sea islands to South Korea in the 1953 Armistice Agreement. The relevant provision is found in Article II, Paragraph 13(b):

[A]ll the islands lying to the north and west of the provincial boundary line between HWANGHAE-DO and KYONGGI-DO shall be under the military control of the Supreme Commander of the Korean People’s Army and the Commander of the Chinese People’s volunteers, except the island groups of PAENGYONG-DO (37 58′ N, 124 40′ E), TAECHONG-DO (37 50′ N, 124 42′ E), SOCHONG-DO (37 46′ N, 124 46′ E), YONPYONG-DO (37 38′ N, 125 40′ E), and U-DO (37 36′N, 125 58′ E), which shall remain under the military control of the Commander-in-Chief, United Nations Command. All the island on the west coast of Korea lying south of the above-mentioned boundary line shall remain under the military control of the Commander-in-Chief, United Nations Command. (See Map 3).

yellow-sea-islands.jpg

The agreement did not delineate between the two de facto states’ territorial waters, so we default to international customary law, which provides that a nation’s territorial sea extends for 12 nautical miles (or 14 terrestrial miles, or 22 kilometers) from its coastline at low tide, or to the mid-point to a neighboring nation’s coastline, whichever is less. There are North Korean islets just 1.67 miles north of Yeonpyeong, so South Korea’s territorial sea excludes most of the waters north of the island, but the 14-mile radius from Yeonpyeong-Do overlaps with the 14-mile radius from the nearest South Korean island to the east, meaning that South Korea is entitled to describe the 22-mile wide stretch of water between them as its “territorial sea.” (The status of the waters between Yeonpyeong-Do and the outlying islands to the west is more complex, although the status of the islands and the waters within 14 miles of their coastlines is controlled by the same principles.) Clearly, then, the waters within 14 miles of Yeonpyeong-Do, except those to the North, are South Korean waters. There is no basis in international law for North Korea’s novel and unilateral claim of all of the surrounding waters, save the restrictive corridors to the south of them.

800px-map_of_korean_maritime_bordersvg.png

To reasonable minds, “restraint” has nothing to do with what you do on your own side of the border, as long as it poses no threat to your neighbor (otherwise, it’s called “sovereignty”). “Restraint” means not shelling your neighbor or sinking its warships. North Korea has done both of these things in the last seven months. South Korea is contemplating nothing of the kind. Its Joint Chiefs of Staff have stated that “the artillery guns on Yeonpyeong will be aimed southwest and away from North Korea for the drill.” It is North Korea that needs to show restraint. A nation that is under the threat of an armed attack has a right under Article 51 of the U.N. Charter to defend its territory, and restraint does not require the abandonment of that right, or of the preparedness it demands, or of the exercises that are essential to preparedness. These exercises are taking place inside South Korean territory, spurious North Korean claims notwithstanding.

North Korea counts on weak-minded emissaries like Bill Richardson to meet its utterly unreasonable demands half way, in the same way that disreputable merchants raise prices 50% in September to convince addle-brained customers that a 25% discount in December is a great deal. There isn’t much of a case to be made that his visit has reduced tensions with North Korea; in fact, one can argue that his grandstanding, ill-timed visit has had had exactly the opposite effect.

Update: It’s our big annual apocalypse aversion sale! Save big on all MIA remains! This week only, plutonium fuel rods (see manager for pricing)! Bring your U.N. inspectors to see what Sig Hecker has already seen, but mostly, bring lots of cash!

Open Sources

December 19, 2010 Anju Links One comment

So North Koreans also find South Korean dramas to be dull and formulaic? We have more in common than I’d ever suspected:

“In South Hamgyong Province, only a few households are able to capture TV signals, but reception is quite good in Hwanghae or South Pyongan provinces,” Kim said. “People there look forward to the evenings when dramas are broadcast.” He said North Koreans also enjoy watching news and current events programs as well and power their TVs with their car batteries during power outages.

Another defector surnamed Yoo (40), who used to sell DVDs in the North and came to South Korea late last year, said North Koreans have grown tired of South Korean TV soaps with their stereotypical plots. “Nowadays, ‘Rambo 4,’ ’007 Casino Royale,’ and other American action films or TV dramas like ‘Prison Break’ are popular,” she added. [....]

North Koreans also prefer American movies to Korean ones. “Practically everyone knows ‘Titanic.’” The movie classic “Gone with the Wind” is popular among upper-class North Koreans in Pyongyang, while young people enjoy action films. “DVDs of American movies or TV dramas fetched the highest prices,” she said. “But now USBs with American TV programs are more popular than DVDs.”

Even the North Koreans are becoming discriminating consumers. What is this world coming to? Eventually, I suspect it’s coming to better things than “Bulgasari,” “The Flower Girl,” and “Sea of Blood.”

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Tremble, Commies! Ban Ki Moon urges North Korea to show restraint, and almost 20 years too late, the U.N. wants to inspect North Korea’s uranium enrichment facility. I refer, of course, to the one that Dick Cheney made up after Agreed Framework I successfully ended the North Korean nuclear threat for all time, just because he hates peace.

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The latest dispatch from Good Friends is up.

Keep Calm and Carry On

December 18, 2010 Korean War II 9 comments

OK, I know those of you in South Korea are probably feeling a bit edgy for now, amid all of the drills, exercises, and North Koreans threats, which I’m sure our State Department would say are absolutely, positively not terrorism in any way, shape, or form. Still, I doubt that things will be quite this bad in Seoul by Monday:

I don’t think we’ve seen the end of North Korea’s escalation, and I also think Christmas is a fairly likely occasion for more of that, but the North Koreans aren’t irrational, and that’s why this won’t come to full-scale war. Kim Jong Il and those around him all know what happens to them and their regime if it does. South Koreans need to be rational now, but they also need to be brave. We’re at this literally dreadful state of affairs because for too long, too many South Koreans and Americans refused to recognize the pathology of this regime and thus enabled its capacity to terrorize the South even more (and indirectly, the United States). A few people are still incapable of understanding, or perhaps just unwilling to understand, how that cycle has vastly increased the danger to both countries over the last 20 years, as each successive leader has failed to resist the temptation to “manage” the threat out of the headlines, only to see it reemerge in some slightly more terrible and brazen form. I like the way Sung Yoon Lee put it in his latest piece for the Asia Times:

The more people in democratic societies think about the North Korean regime as a threat to humanity and less as an idiosyncratic abstraction, the more they will be resolved not to allow their leaders to resort to politically expedient measures with each future provocation or defer Korean reunification. For the South Korean leadership, breaking the taboo of potential economic costs of reunification should be a high priority. [....]

It’s time to acknowledge that while status quo maintenance in the Korean Peninsula has worked in deterring war over the past 57 years, it has all but failed in deterring North Korea’s ever-growing strategy of brinkmanship. It is also time to accept that relying on China to resolve the North Korea problem has produced few returns over the past two decades. As Pyongyang presses ahead in 2011 on its proven path of provocation-for-compensation, Beijing will, as usual, counsel patience, exhorting Washington and Seoul to let bygones be bygones and embrace the future.

I don’t happen to believe it’s too late to break that cycle, but this is one of those times when being the citizen of a free nation requires actual, physical courage. This crisis is a test, no less than the June Democracy Movement of 1987 was. I hope South Korea passes it.

So, how exactly has Bill Richardson’s visit reduced tensions again? (Bumped)

December 18, 2010 Appeasement, Diplomacy 11 comments

kim-jong-bill.JPGNorth Korea has welcomed the has-been politician by reaffirming that it will never give up its nukes, preparing to test one, threatening to use others, and inspecting a military unit.

Who feels safer already?

Update: “North Korea Threatens More Attacks.” Huzzah for Kim Jong Bill!

Update 2: It may be the worst photoshop ever, but I couldn’t help re-using it.

Update 3, Dec 18: So, if Richardson is merely a private citizen who isn’t there to negotiate anything, and if indeed this is the wrong time for negotiations with North Korea, then what business does he have “provid[ing] North Korea with a series of proposals,” which of course, he won’t discuss?

Now, like OFK’s all-time favorite left-of-center Korea-watcher, Gordon Flake, I happen to agree that we should have ways to “make sure [the North Koreans] understand, in an unfiltered manner, our position.” The thing is, with North Korea now threatening South Korea’s most economically vital sea lane and airspace, that message needs to be, “one more stunt like that and we unleash hell.” This is one of those times like the Cuban Missile Crisis when we can’t afford to back down, yet can’t afford to let things escalate too far, either. We need not explain to the North Koreans for now whether that means OPLAN 5027 1/2 or a highly aggressive combination of financial sanctions and political subversion, although I suspect the latter threat will come across as more credible than the former, given past history.

But if that’s the message — and the pessimist in me doubts that it is — then you might as well ask Richard Simmons to deliver it as Bill Richardson. He doesn’t speak for the POTUS, he’s long been a leading advocate of appeasing North Korea at any price, and his rather obvious motive is to remain relevant for the domestic American audience, particularly for liberals who tend to vote in Democratic primaries. Far better, then, for Stephen Bosworth to deliver that message via North Korea’s Ambassador to the United Nations.

A final point of order here on non-military options. One of the difficulties of enforcing sanctions against North Korea is the problem of making fine distinctions between “legitimate” North Korean businesses and bank accounts, and those that are involved in activities prohibited by UNSCR 1874. Until now, we’ve painstakingly insisted on the approval of the U.N. Security Council before imposing sanctions. That means that we’d have to go begging to China for a “yes” vote on a draft they’d successfully watered down, only to watch Chinese “investments” in North Korea “surge massively” shortly thereafter, even as they knowingly permit North Korea to fly missile parts to Iran right through the Beijing Airport. Enough of this! Treasury should simply declare — as it has done in the case of Nauru, Ukraine, and other countries — that North Korea itself is a primary money laundering concern under Section 311 of the USA PATRIOT Act and block all of its financial assets and accounts, wherever they are. Do you suppose North Korea can last a year if it can’t pay its army?

Update 4: You know who would have been the perfect messenger?

[Originally posted on 17 Dec. 2010.]

Open Sources

December 17, 2010 Anju Links 4 comments

Former chief U.S. nuclear negotiator Christopher Hill was quoted by VOA as saying that the North’s disclosure of the uranium enrichment plant proves that the regime lied in the six-party talks.

May these words be engraved on a tablet as the epitaph of all agreed frameworks. Still, it’s a bit hard to take Christopher Hill’s outrage that he was lied to at face value, given how much he helped them lie to the rest of us.

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South Korean-based broadcasters to North Korea are obviously making a big push for the South Korean government to at least stop obstructing their activities, if not support them. Four of those broadcasters held a joint event in downtown Seoul this week. The Daily NK has photographs and testimonials from defectors whose minds were opened by what they heard:

A defector said, “I listened to radio in secret in North Korea. At first, I was so scared of it, but later I figured out there were many who were listening to it just like me. Broadcasting is a big hope for the North Korean people, as it can deliver outside information to them.

It’s time for the South Korean government to realize that what these broadcasters are doing serves the national interest of Korea. The broadcasters all appear to be trying to appeal to different audiences, and I’m glad to see that at least one is trying to sway the minds of the Pyongyang elite, too. I doubt that the same message would work equally well in all segments of North Korean society. Anti-Chinese nationalism might have the greatest appeal in Sinuiju or Chongjin, news of the country’s economic inequality would no doubt play well in Hamhung and Wonsan, and discussion of the philosophical contradictions between North Korea’s ideology and practice might play best in Pyongyang.

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South Korea’s chief nuclear envoy said Wednesday that dialogue with North Korea is not an option right now, calling for greater international pressure on Pyongyang to stop provocations after its deadly shelling of a South Korean island. [Yonhap]

Yes, and with all due respect, exactly how can South Korea really expect anyone to take this call seriously while the Kaesong Industrial Park is still dumping millions of won into funding Kim Jong Il’s bling, and his threats against South Korea? If all of the news reports I’ve read about the mood in South Korea are accurate, then the South Korean people are ready to shut Kaesong down.

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The chickens come home to roost:

Zhang Yong-an, a visiting fellow at the Brookings Institute, a think-tank based in Washington, D.C., wrote in the paper published Dec. 3 that “made-in-North Korea” drugs in China were becoming out of control. Zhang wrote, “In July 2010, the Yanbian border patrol agency arrested six suspects from North Korea, including a drug kingpin “˜Sister Kim,’ and several ethnic Korean Chinese. They seized 1.5 kg of ice.

If it’s possible to smuggle dope across that border, then it’s also possible to smuggle food, medicine, money, cell phones, flash drives, explosives, and weapons across that border. In approximately that order, too.

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The Gypsy Scholar remembers a hero and friend.

Open Sources

December 16, 2010 Uncategorized 8 comments

North Korea, which was removed from the list of state sponsors of terrorism on October 11, 2008 as a reward for its nuclear disarmament, looks to be preparing another nuclear weapons test.

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“It’s changed out there, and it’s dangerous. Increasingly dangerous,” Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said during an informal question and answer session with troops in Iraq.

What does it tell you that soldiers in Iraq are fretting about Korea?

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China has done the impossible. It has managed to make even Vladimir Putin seem like a responsible statesman:

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov met his North Korean counterpart in Moscow on Monday and condemned the artillery attack on Yeongpyeong Island.

According to the Russian foreign ministry, Lavrov met with North Korean Foreign Minister Park Ui-chun and told him that the shelling of the inhabited South Korean island, which killed four people, is blameworthy.

I know, they’re just words, but it’s a start.

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More signs of disillusionment among North Korean youth.
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Whoa, they did eat the baby elephants! You know, if the word of this gets out, it could cause global outrage. Unlike the mass murder of North Korean human beings.
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South Korean students protest against the Democratic Labor Party for being North Korean tools. Well, duh!

Clandestine Broadcasters Want Access to Medium Wave Frequencies

December 16, 2010 Subversion 44 comments

Until now, I did not realize that the South Korean government’s practice of bogarting all the good radio frequencies was imposing such a high cost on dissident broadcasting to North Korea. This week, some of those broadcasters have joined to rally for access to medium-wave frequencies. In the current times, I can’t see why the South Korean government wouldn’t agree to this:

Four radio stations broadcasting programs to North Korea joined hands in a live event at Cheonggye Plaza in downtown Seoul on Wednesday afternoon.

Radio Free North Korea, North Korea Reform Radio, Open Radio for North Korea, and Radio Free Chosun denounced the North for shelling Yeonpyeong Island in November and called for the resumption of propaganda broadcasts to the North. [....]

Ha Tae-keung, the head of Open Radio, called for the South Korean government to support the stations. “Currently, broadcasters specializing in programs for the North are transmitting on shortwave, which costs tens of thousands of dollars in royalties to foreign countries. We could broadcast better sound quality to more North Koreans if we’re given medium-wave or AM frequencies which the government isn’t using.” [Chosun Ilbo]

A lot of people in Washington are fond of advocating “engagement” to change attitudes in North Korea. This is the kind of engagement that will actually work, because it reaches through the state’s filter to the very people who are the most ready to listen to it. More honest advocates of engagement, such as my friend Andrei Lankov, support engaging the North Korean people, as well as the regime. In many other cases, however, ardent advocates of the kind of engagement that funds the regime and reaches very few ordinary North Koreans have no words of support for broadcasts that have the potential to actually keep the Sunshine Policy’s broken promises.

Kim Jong Il, Unplugged Again

December 15, 2010 Defectors, NK Economics, Sanctions 32 comments

First, I’ll just say that I have nothing to say about Eric Clapton that I didn’t say more than two years ago. We’ve already heard Eric Clapton unplugged. The economic unplugging of Kim Jong Il is a more consequential thing, one that I see as closely related to domestic discontent inside North Korea. My suspicion, though it is not yet supported by much direct evidence, is that these recent developments have reduced him to new lows of extortionate desperation.

When I posted the other day about Kim Jong Il’s Austrian shopper, the story mentioned that he’d attempted to purchase yachts for His Dessicated Majesty. This more recent story confirms that the seller was Azimut-Benetti, which cooperated in the investigation of violations of UNSCR 1718 and 1874, and which I first wrote about here. The “shopper,” who was not named but should have been, claims he is merely a businessman, which is what Don Corleone also said if I recall correctly. Maybe the violation of two U.N. Security Council resolutions isn’t malum in se, but the diversion of resources from the starving certainly is.

Meanwhile, on the other side of the foreign exchange ledger, there are several new stories about hard times for the industries that earn North Korea that Earth money it needs to buy all that … infant formula. The Daily NK interviews a former manager of North Korean logging camps in Russia about why so many loggers have defected that the 20,000 of them were recently called home. Separately, the Chosun Ilbo also reports that a North Korean military translator, obviously the scion of an elite family, has defected in Russia:

Choi told Kyodo the North Korean regime “makes people suffer. People are executed or sent to labor camps all the time, and most ordinary people are starving.” He claimed he “wanted to contribute to changing the situation from outside.”

Choi reportedly lived in the Soviet Union in the 1980s between the ages of 13 and 17 years old, when his father worked at the North Korean Embassy in Moscow.

“I was there in January last year when the North Korean government announced Kim Jong-un as the successor of Kim Jong-il in front of high military officials in Pyongyang,” Choi claimed. “Kim Jong-il is going to die in a few years, and it’s impossible for the young and inexperienced Jong-un to rule the country. My dream is to go back to my country, which will be free some day, and live with my family.”

And in Nepal, the manager of the local Pyongyang Okryugwan Restaurant has absconded to India with the contents of the till. Enraged (and probably fearful) diplomats at the North Korean embassy then exerted pressure on the Nepalese authorities, who arrested two South Korean nationals, possibly on “kidnapping” charges. South Korea says it’s negotiating with the Nepalis for their release.

The Chosun Ilbo reports that these restaurants bring in a substantial amount of cash for the regime, but have recently suffered from a rash of defections. I’ve speculated before that they could also serve as a good cover for money laundering. I wonder how much of the stolen money is counterfeit.

I’m beginning to sense a great disturbance in The Force. That sense may change tomorrow, but today, it is that something truly dramatic, horrible, and/or hopeful will surely happen in North Korea, or because of North Korea, in the next six months.

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