Must see: An opinion about N. Korea sanctions from an actual sanctions expert (really!)

William Newcomb, formerly of the U.S. Treasury Department and the U.N. Panel of experts (UNPOE), was at The Korea Society last Friday to talk with Stephen Noerper about North Korea sanctions, what they are, and how to make them a useful policy tool again.

Newcomb didn’t have time to explain all of the authorities and their provisions in detail, but he did make some important points.

First, Newcomb blames “politics” for the fact that the UNPOE hasn’t designated a number of “bad actors” that are violating the sanctions, and for the slowness of the UNPOE in obtaining the designation of Ocean Maritime Management. That delay was critical, because financial sanctions need to strand money to work, and after the 2013 seizure of the Chong Chon Gang in Panama, the North Koreans had plenty of scurry time after the light switch flicked on. It isn’t hard to see that Newcomb means China, although I can’t imagine Russia has played a constructive role.

Second, there are more bad actors that we could designate, but haven’t. Newcomb references the relatively small number of North Korean entities on the list of Specially Designated Nationals, something I’ve kvetched about for years now.

Third, Newcomb doesn’t think we have the equivalent of a Banco Delta Asia anymore—that is, a single point of failure that we can attack to cause instant disruption to Pyongyang’s palace economy. That’s not a shock to me, either, although I wonder if we’re even gathering the financial intelligence to know that for certain. After all, most North Korea transactions still don’t even require a license under 31 C.F.R. Part 510.

Certainly, some alternative points of failure come to my mind, but people in Pyongyang, Dar-as-Salaam, Nairobi, Kampala, Phnom Penh, and Ulan Bator read this site, so I’ll keep those thoughts to myself for now. Even so, the hard reality may well be that the North Koreans have squirreled away most of the low-hanging fruit. A financial constriction strategy will take longer to work today than it did in 2007 2005, but if implemented aggressively, it still shouldn’t take as long as it took us to bankrupt Osama bin Laden.

15 Responses

  1. Newcomb noted that far more Iranian individuals have been designated than North Koreans, but he didn’t explain why. I’d like to know why our foreign policy establishment has such an unhealthy obsession with Iran. Cuba, too. we come down much harder on Cuba than on North Korea. Why?

  2. The designation of hundreds of Iranian entities is completely consistent with how we treat other terror-sponsoring, nuke-seeking, woman-hating, gay-bashing thugs. Read the SDN List — Iran sanctions and their enforcement are not outliers. The non-enforcement of North Korea sanctions is the outlier. Please note that when you comment on Iran blogs. Thank you.

  3. I don’t comment on Iran blogs, but I’m glad to infer that we’ll now impose sanctions on the woman-hating gay-bashing Sa’udi Arabia.

  4. Some day, you’ll figure out the real reason sanctions are imposed, and I hope you’ll explain it to me.

  5. I know the real reason we sanctioned Iran, and so should you. The question is why we’ve hardly sanctioned North Korea at all. According to the SDN list, we’ve sanctioned dozens (if not hundreds) of Saudi nationals. We’ve sanctioned 62 North Korean entities. The first step toward solving a mystery is asking the right question — why not North Korea, too?

  6. Yeah, we sanction Saudi individuals, but not the Saudi state. You know, of course, that there is no freedom of religion in Saudi Arabia.

    Certain countries, like Iran and Cuba, are sanctioned severely. Others aren’t sanctioned at all. And some, like North Korea, are sanctioned, but not as much as they deserve. That’s the puzzle.

  7. In Saudi Arabia, Christianity is usually tolerated if practiced privately at home, although Bibles are forbidden. In North Korea, they send you to a concentration camp or shoot you for practicing Christianity privately at home. We don’t sanction the Saudi government because it’s still the least-horrible form of government that the Saudi society is capable of creating. North Korea has the worst form of government in East Asia, and possibly on Earth. The puzzle is that Barack Obama and George W. Bush were never serious about sanctioning it.

  8. OK, I get it now. We decide how good a government a country can create, and we sanction it until it hits that level. Thanks.

  9. I thought we had the answer, but no, it’s still a mystery why we sanction some countries more severely than others, and some countries not at all.

  10. Hey Glans,
    It looks to me like your big topic is American hypocrisy. Fair enough. But why the anger over attempts to sanction North Korea? It is today’s gold standard in horrible government, and that’s impressive given the competition. Who do you think you are helping by criticizing efforts to hold the Cult of Kim accountable?

  11. Sean, I want strong action against North Korea. Joshua is doing good work, and I admire him.

    Ideally, the Pyong Yang government should be abolished, and Seoul should be recognized as the legitimate capital of the whole peninsula. Have I ever told you about the Glans Plan for Korea? 1. PRC stays out; 2. ROK annexes DPRK; 3. USA gets out. I only wish China would support it.

    Meanwhile, I try to get Joshua to help me understand sanctions. Why are we so hard on Iran and Cuba, why are we comparatively lenient on North Korea, and why do we give a pass to Saudi Arabia and Pakistan? Every time I think I get it, I find things I can’t explain. He tries to help me, but his explanations don’t hold up.

  12. There are legit questions about our relations with Cuba (left-wing, Marxist authoritarian) and with Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan (all right-wing, religious authoritarians) – and I think the answers have to do with how the people who run foreign policy understand our “geopolitical interests.” Human rights are rarely key in that scheme of things… Why not start your own blog and look into it?

  13. I’m all for sanctions. I see a lot of talk about Kim Jong-un potentially facing charges at the ICC. But people miss the one fact that no one will go into North Korea and get him, he could just sit there for years ignoring the west and simply continue with his nuke threats. Sanctions realistically are the only way to hit him.