The Reckoning Approaches

I have long argued that for South Korea and the United States to agree on a sensible North Korea policy, these two nations must first resolve their own differences, which are fundamental differences of values the two nations no longer share. A reckoning is inevitable, and it will end in a reaffirmation of the alliance or a bitter divorce, followed by the sucking sound of 37,000 U.S. troops moving to Guam (followed by an investment capital whirlpool of historic proportions).

The reckong process took a great leap forward last week, with the formerly conservative opposition’s self-destruction, which was widely seen as the voters’ punishment for its ill-considered impeachment of Roh. Gloating over being right about this backlash is little consolation; this is bad news for Korea’s economy, its place in the world, and its conscience. There is room to mitigate one’s pessimism, however; this campaign was devoid of any discussion of real policy issues. It was a circus, complete with tents. North Korea wasn’t an issue because the opposition candidate promised to maintain Roh’s North Korea policies and visit the Dear Leader. One can only hope the election results reflect disgust at the GNP rather than enthusiasm for appeasement. The opposition–whatever it calls itself next year–has two more years to clean up its act, decide to have some beliefs, and lead. One hopes that the reckoning will end with South Korea doing what is morally right, rather than continuing to do what is economically profitable.

If I’m right, however, South Korea has just missed its last chance to be anything but a bystander in solving the humanitarian and nuke crises in North Korea. Cheney’s recent visit to the Far East appears to have had the main goal of signaling Bush’s impatience. That suggests that Bush will get decisive with the Norks soon after the November election . . . presuming things go his way. That means our disagreements with South Korea may become very public. Seoul would be marginalized and shamed if the U.S. and Japan adopt a policy of regime change, tighten the economic screws on North Korea, welcome a flotilla of refugees, and openly subvert the government with food and radio drops. Big trouble in Iraq or Iran could delay it, but not likely until the next Korean election.

And speaking of Iraq, this report in the Korea Herald suggests another expressway to The Reckoning.–Korea is having second thoughts about helping out in Iraq. Many Americans–including the Washington Times–operate under the mistaken impression that there are already 3,600 Korean troops in Iraq (there are 675 medics and engineers). In fact, Seoul has pursued a study-and-stall strategy for the bulk of these troops for the last six months. It looks increasingly likely that they will not arrive at all, and if they do arrive, they will end up guarding something that’s already perfectly safe, thus freeing up literally dozens of U.S. soldiers. How would the American people take this, given the fact that South Korea only exists because 38,000 Americans died to make it so? This might complete the process that Jim Crow signs and flag burnings began–turning the American people and their representatives against the military welfare state in Seoul.

Look on the bright side. Rummy can do a lot more with 37,000 American troops than he could with those 3,600 Koreans.