Fear and Loathing Update

The Guardian reports that “European policymakers have been advised to prepare for “sudden change” in North Korea amid growing speculation among diplomats and observers that Kim Jong-il is losing his grip on power.” As with all of these recent reports, however, you need to sift carefully to find any hard facts:

Since the summer Pyongyang residents have reported a security crackdown, with extra checkpoints and ID inspections. Even Chinese academics – usually cautious in criticising North Korea – say there have been a large number of high-level defections because of growing dissatisfaction with the political system.

Veteran North Korea watchers say government officials are contradicting one another and being forced to wear military uniforms instead of their usual civilian clothes. “I’ve never seen or heard so many signs of division within the leadership,” said a western observer who has been travelling in and out of Pyongyang for more than five years. “Kim Jong-il seems to be losing control.”

“There is a great deal of pressure coming from somewhere,” a North Korea-based diplomat said. “We don’t know whether it is internal or external, but something is going on.”

Hat tip: Barry Briggs at NKZone.