Roh at 29%

It might well be a new low for his approval rating, but I wouldn’t be so quick to read this optimistically. First, polls are one thing, but election turnout is another. If most of the other 71% don’t show up (and why should they?) Roh still wins. Second, this is merely a continuation of a long-term decline, dating back to just before the (opposition) GNP’s impeachment attempt fiasco last spring, now that residual sympathy for Roh has faded. Most importantly, it reflects party support but not the popularity of Koreans’ views on issues that matter to those of us who find South Korea’s current policies so perplexing. The Uri Party has lost its virginity and had its share of scandals now, but ideologically speaking, it’s never been cozier toward North Korea. Indeed, South Korea really has two feuding Democratic Labor Parties (it’s easy to forget that Kim Dae-Jung’s old Minju-dang still exists at times like this).

Even after factoring in that it’s a product of the Ministry of Anti-Unification, I’d put more credence in surveys like this one, and there’s no cause for optimism there. Koreans either don’t know what’s going on in North Korea or don’t care, and I’m charitable enough to say that it’s more the former than the latter.

What, then, is the alternative to Roh? If I were a South Korean, I’d see no particular incentive to come to the polls, either. The GNP is widely seen as corrupt, cynical, and anti-democratic, and it obviously doesn’t stand for anything. The only room for optimism is that at least the GNP is doing what all valueless, rudderless political parties should do–trying to find its soul. Some of those noises (and even one of the obvious stunts) are more impressive than others, but at least the discussion has started. As with the debate within the Democratic Party here, which is searching for a middle ground between GOP lite and the Angry left, the right result might elevate the entire political debate to something better. The right result is almost never presenting yourself as the un-cola. As the GNP will hopefully realize, you need to stand for something and proclaim it like you really believe it.