Lebanon Rising?

This certainly looks like good news. Yes, Lebanon is a volatile place riven by religious and tribal factionalism, but it seems that nothing unites factions like a common enemy. The old canard of using Israel and the United States appears to have lost its appeal; Syria is the new object of popular enmity despite its best efforts to blame the usual scapegoats. Today, Beirut’s streets are filled with Christian, Muslim, and Druze protestors calling for Syrian withdrawal. Only Hezbollah supports the Syrians.

Today, there is initial word that Syria may pull some troops out of Lebanon. For now, any such statement is probably insincere, but it will only serve to encourage those pushing Syria to withdraw. That will undermine the Syrian regime itself, for several reasons. First, the appearance of weakness is often fatal in the Middle East, and this could create the appearance of weakness. Second, the Syrian military, whose senior officers pull many of the levers of power from behind the scenes, are making a fortune from drug production in Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley, in partnership with Hezbollah. Third, Syria has already suffered some severe economic blows, including the recent imposition of U.S. sanctions and the loss of smuggling revenue from Iraq’s oil pipelines. Lebanon, naturally wealthier than Syria, has been a source of jobs for unemployed Syrians. A Syrian withdrawal could end that.

I’ve been somewhat skeptical about the idea that democracy could take root in the Middle East, but recent events have suggested that President Bush could be right about this. Even Al-Qaeda seems to agree, on some perverse level. His open subversion of the Syrian presence in Lebanon might have similar effects if he dared to apply it in Iran and North Korea, too.