A Turning Point in the Middle East?

Recent events in the Middle East are melting my pessimism and cynicism about the region. Events that I had thought would take decades seem to be emerging in months. The news from Iraq recently is downright encouraging:

• Iraqi citizens are taking up arms against the terrorists. In three different cities across Iraq, the people have also engaged in apparently spontaneous demonstrations against terrorists, extremists, and the government of Jordan, which Iraqis belive has tacticly tolerated support and sanctuary for them. The latter link (to Chrenkoff) also contains a superb roundup of dissent throughout the region–most of it pro-democratic, but some not.
• John Burns, the NY Times’s outstanding Baghdad correspondent, reports that even along the meanest street in Baghdad, the tide seems to be turning. Austin Bay, who talked with Burns when he was deployed to Iraq, has more.
• There are encouraging signs in the most important part of the war–the propaganda war. Al-Hurra, the U.S.-funded satellite TV channel, is gaining viewers and trust in some of the most hostile places in the Middle East. The televised confessions of Iraqi terrorists appear to be both highly popular and highly effective at replacing the insurgents’ image of strength with one of cowed and groveling brutality.
• Click here for a fascinating and detailed breakdown of stats from Iraq–including military and civilian casualties; U.S., Iraq, and insurgent strength (estimated); economic trends; and polling data. The numbers are from the center-left Brookings Institution, and the clear trend is generally, but not exclusively, favorable.
• The bad guys are taking a beating on the battlefield, too–over 100 KIA in the last three days alone. Now, I firmly believe that guerrilla wars are not won and lost with body counts, which is why I put this point below the others. But the loss of talented commanders, marksmen, planners, trainers, couriers, fundraisers, and bomb-makers always hurts an insurgency’s effectiveness. Maybe that’s why they’ve been reduced to bombing taxis, mortaring schools, and generally focusing on things that can’t shoot back.
• Finally, and most tellingly of all, the news reports in the United States are filled with the clearest possible signs of the insurgents’ post-election implosion: a parade of stories about Michael Jackson, Robert Blake, Terri Schiavo and (yawn) social security. They’re even rediscovering Iran and North Korea, although the news blackout on non-diplomacy stories remains in full effect.

Let’s hope the trend continues.