Bush Administration Considering Blockade of N. Korea as N. Korea Prepares for Possible Nuke Test

Today’s New York Times reports two major new developments in the North Korea story. The Administration’s long-lived patience with North Korea may finally be at an end as it contemplates asking the U.N. for a resolution that would authorize any nation to stop North Korean ship and planes to search for nuclear material. Meanwhile, North Korea may be preparing to test a nuclear weapon. First, the general terms of the conceptual resolution:

The resolution envisioned by a growing number of senior administration officials would amount to a quarantine of North Korea, though, so far at least, President Bush’s aides are not using that word. It would enable the United States and other nations to intercept shipments in international waters off the Korean Peninsula and to force down aircraft for inspection.

But, said several American and Asian officials, the main purpose would be to give China political cover to police its long border with North Korea, the impoverished country’s lifeline for food and oil. That border is now largely open for shipments of arms, drugs and counterfeit currencies, North Korea’s main source of hard currency.

Chinese cooperation with the resolution is doubtful at best, although increased trade pressure on China in the U.S. Congress and in Europe could give the Administration more leverage. Previous leaks from the Bush Administration have suggested an emerging strategy of isolating North Korea economically to deprive its rulers of the hard currency they need to sustain their regime.

In late January, the Administration concluded that North Korea sold enriched uranium to the A.Q Khan network, and ultimately to Libya. In early February, North Korea recently walked out of nuclear disarmament talks and declared itself a nuclear power. Later that month, the North threatened to attack U.S. installations in South Korea. Most recently, North Korea shut down its plutonium reactor at Yongbyong, a prerequisite to removing fuel rods it could then reprocess into weapons-grade material. Neither China nor South Korea has been willing to force North Korea to choose between the aid and trade benefits they both provide and returning to the talks in earnest.

Today’s N.Y. Times story also reports that North Korea may be preparing for a nuclear test.

Activity at the site in October and again in January led to concerns that North Korea may be preparing for the first underground weapons test – which would end any ambiguity about whether it has the technology to build a warhead.

“They are either heading toward a full nuclear breakout, so that we are forced to deal with them as an established nuclear power, or they are putting on quite a show for our satellites,” said one senior administration official, who added that the quarantine option had not yet been formally presented to President Bush.

The White House has said little so far about North Korea’s actions, following a strategy very different from the one it pursued two years ago with Iraq. Ms. Rice has repeatedly said that North Korea’s pattern is to seek a public reaction from Washington, and she has made clear she does not intend to oblige.

But some experts say the statements and actions North Korea have taken recently could mark a significant shift in strategy: It may now see a chance to build a modest nuclear arsenal while the United States and Asian nations debate how to react. The C.I.A. estimates that North Korea already has enough plutonium for six or eight nuclear weapons.

“I’m afraid they are now more interested in getting away with it than getting a reaction out of the United States,” South Korea’s former foreign minister, Han Sung Joo, said in an interview last week.

In February 2004, the New York Times reported that North Korea may have tested a nuclear weapon in Pakistan in 1998, as part of its cooperation with the A.Q. Khan network. Although the exposure of the Khan network would make continued Pakistani cooperation with North Korea prohibitively risky, Time Asia has reported that North Korea also cooperates extensively with Iran in its nuclear weapons development.

HT: The Lost Nomad