Bashar Assad: Exit Stage Left?
Beset by U.S. attempts to isolate his country and facing popular expectations of change, Syrian President Bashar Assad will move to begin legalizing political parties, purge the ruling Baath Party, sponsor free municipal elections in 2007 and formally endorse a market economy, according to officials, diplomats and analysts.
. . . .Emboldened opposition leaders, many of whom openly support pressure by the United States even if they mistrust its intentions, said the measures were the last gasp of a government staggering after its hasty and embarrassing troop withdrawal last month from neighboring Lebanon.
The debate over the changes comes during a remarkable surge in what constitutes dissent in this country of 18 million. For the first time in years, opposition figures and even government allies are openly speculating on the fate of a party that, in some fashion, has ruled Syria since 1963 in the name of Arab nationalism, and today faces perhaps its greatest crisis. The debate points to the most pressing questions in the country today: Can Syria truly reform itself and what might follow?
Authoritarian regimes are never more vulnerable than at the confluence of an economic setback and a showing of weakness in the face of public opposition. In the Middle East in particular, a leader cannot afford to lose the image of strength. This may prove fatal to Ba’athist rule, which likely means a well-earned one-way ticket to the ash heap for the whole Ba’athist experiment. You may doubt the Administration’s motives yourself; but give credit where it’s due. Bush’s direct pressure shows real signs of transforming the region.