The Bad Cop

Assistant Secretary of State Christopher “The Bad Cop” Hill appears to be moving away from a constraint on our previous diplomacy with North Korea–the idea that the nuclear question should be discussed in strict isolation from the more fundamental problem of North Korea’s closed society. And while the North Korean Human Rights Act threw human rights into the mix by force of law, the State Department hasn’t exactly shown enthusiasm for that. This, then, is a hopeful sign:

WASHINGTON – A top State Department official predicted on Thursday that North Korea’s decision to remain isolated internationally will eventually lead to the collapse of its communist government. Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill said North Korea is showing no interest in taking lessons from the successes neighboring China has enjoyed from its reform program. “It’s a real problem,” Hill said, alluding to North Korea’s self-imposed isolation. “And it’s a problem that will ultimately be their undoing.” He said chronic food production problems along with a dysfunctional health care system are raising doubts about the sustainability of North Korea’s rigid communist system.

Hill testified before the House International Relations subcommittee on Asia and
the Pacific.

Of course, you can’t have effective arms control without effective verification, and you can’t have effective verification without access to secret places. Given that some of North Korea’s most threatening weapons are closely associated with its concentration camps and use of forced labor, it’s hard to believe that there can be meaningful arms control with the North without the North being willing to fundamentally open its society–including its prisons–to the eyes of the outside world.

Secretary Hill didn’t go that far, but this statement is a hopeful sign for those who believe that the answer to both problems–humanitarian and weapons–is lifting North Korea’s the cloak of secrecy. Many will no doubt criticize Hill for having been so direct, but then again, these results are certainly nothing to brag about. Hill also made this pointed statement, reference China:

Hill also said that China, given its close ties with North Korea, shoulders the major responsibility for persuading North Korea to return to six-party talks on the North’s nuclear program. “If China fails to get their good friend North Korea to the table, the six-party process will fail,” Hill said.

To this I’d add something from a conversation with a well-known Korea-watcher at this event, which means I can’t tell you who–but there’s a growing school of thought in Washington that China wants North Korea to be a nuclear power. Aside from China’s studied diplomatic intransigence so far, there is some intelligence to support suspicions about this. Another view that seems to be gaining currency is that China’s leadership is split on whether to take firm action.

My own (recycled) thoughts on why mass starvation alone is unlikely to destabilize the regime here. I’m increasingly of the opinion that North Korea’s power elite will remain unaffected by it as long as they have sources of hard currency.