Bush Administration Hints at Major Policy Shift on NK

It’s about time.

Not being loaded with spare time today, I’ll simply run down some of the coverage in the papers on what’s under consideration. As the above post suggests, it’s had a remarkable solvent effect on the gummy diplomatic gears, which of course is bad news, but probably not substantially worse then throwing this steaming mess into the lap of the United Nations.

Here’s the AP’s Matt Kelley:

The Bush administration may ask the United Nations to punish North Korea for refusing to return to international talks about its nuclear weapons program, Pentagon officials say. Such a move would signal the failure of the six-nation talks aimed at persuading the communist country to abandon its nuclear ambitions. . . .

[poor Matt Kelley; proven wrong in only a few short days]

At an Asian security conference in Singapore over the weekend, U.S. and Japanese officials floated the possibility of sending the matter to the U.N. Security Council for consideration of economic penalties and other punishments. . . . The U.S. plans to decide by month’s end what to do next about North Korea, according to a senior defense official traveling with Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld. The official, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue, said the administration was seriously considering idea of referring the matter to the Security Council. Rumsfeld told reporters on his trip that U.S. policy on North Korea is under review. He would not offer further details.

Japan’s defense chief, Yoshinori Ono, said at the security conference on Saturday that taking the issue to the United Nations was possible if the U.S., China, Japan, Russia and South Korea agreed that was the best option. Rumsfeld also raised the possibility, saying the world is threatened by North Korea’s nuclear weapons. “It would require, certainly, the United Nations to ask itself, does it want to have a role in trying to avoid allowing the kind of proliferation that is threatened?” Rumsfeld said during a question-and-answer session at the security conference. South Korea has resisted the U.N. option, asking instead for more time to persuade North Korea to resume negotiations.
. . . .

The senior U.S. defense official said the U.S. does not see much hope for progress because North Korea has rejected the proposal from the last round of talks and has not agreed to further discussions.

From that report, it doesn’t sound like we’re getting Japan’s unreserved backing, either. Next up, the L.A. Times, which appears to quote the same unnamed source at greater length:

SINGAPORE — With frustration mounting over North Korea’s pursuit of a nuclear arsenal and refusal to return to the bargaining table, the Bush administration will decide within weeks whether to abandon the stalled six-party talks and take the issue to the U.N. Security Council, a senior U.S. defense official said today. It has been nearly a year since delegates from North Korea, China, the U.S., South Korea, Japan and Russia met in Beijing to negotiate the dismantling of the North’s nuclear program. Those talks bore little fruit, and since that time, Pyongyang has rejected repeated overtures for more.

Increasingly, the Bush administration believes that the one-year mark is an appropriate time to cut off North Korea’s opportunity to return to the talks, the defense official said. “We have the one-year anniversary, but moreover, we have an escalating downward spiral of threats by North Korea, and it appears to be marching to its own frustration drum,” said the official, who briefed reporters on the condition his name not be published. “It’s a very good time to be talking about [going to the United Nations], the June-July period.”It’s something we’re giving increased study to, and probably will come to a decision over the next couple of weeks.” [emphasis mine]

The article also noted that U.N. action would depend on Russian and Chinese assent–which isn’t likely–and that the Bush administration’s frustration with China’s failure to pressure the North continues:

Beijing’s decision on whether to ratchet up pressure on North Korea will be key to the future of the U.S.-China relationship, officials say. “We have consistently held out to the Chinese that if they want to find one subject, one area in which they can demonstrate real strategic partnership and strategic cooperation, it is on the North Korean issue,” the senior defense official said. “It is a low-hanging fruit ready to be plucked.”

The L.A. Times piece does the most thorough job of discussing Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld’s comments on China’s military buildup and its concurrent maintenance of its repressive machinery. It would not seem to be a complete coincidence that Rumsfeld happened to raise the human rights issue on June 4th. The Times even dug up Jack Pritchard’s number and got a predictable quote implying that it was all a not-so-subtle tactic to pressure China on North Korea. Pritchard may well have a point this time. No evidence suggests that China’s human rights record has been a priority for this administration during its first four-and-a-half years in power. You could call this a case of doing the right thing for some of the right reasons, but not necessarily the best ones.

So is the long debate about what to do about North Korea finally over? Almost over? Condoleezza Rice and others, quoted in the N.Y. Times, suggest otherwise:

We’ll know more when Roh Moo-Hyun goes home to sulk in a week.