New York Times on the N.K. Nuclear Test Rumors

I haven’t had time to read all five pages of what looks to be a very interesting report on the evidence for or against, but I’m not surprised that (1) people don’t trust the conclusions of the CIA, or (2) the evidence, overall, is inconclusive.

In fact, I’d be very suspicious if any analyst made a conclusive judgment about what North Korea possesses or does not possess. The country is interlaced with literally thousands of tunnels and UGF’s, and is by general agreement the world’s least transparent society. Can’t we simply admit uncertainty and risk, and then be up-front about the allocation of uncertainties and risks?