Talks Update: Did the U.S. Cave?
Take everything you read in this post with extra skepticism, because the reports this week are even less consistent than usual. The main questions this week surround Pyongyang’s claim on a right to “peaceful” nuclear programs. Amid recent signs that the U.S. was ready to cave on that and other issues in the wake of Anti-Unification Minister Chung Dong-Young publicly taking Pyongyang’s side, the U.S. and South Korean positions aren’t exactly manifest.
The Chosun Ilbo reports on South Korean Foreign Minister Ban Ki-Moon’s visit to Washington to seek clarity and unity in both countries’ positions:
The suggestion is that things did not go beyond a restatement of positions and more has to be done before agreement between the two allies can be reached. The U.S. has so far been adamant that North Korea cannot be trusted with a nuclear program of any kind. “We agreed for the head negotiators to harmonize and deal with all issues, including this one, in Beijing when the six-party talks resume” next week, Ban said.
However, the U.S. chief negotiator at the six-party talks Christopher Hill hinted that a solution may be in the works, saying the U.S. had different views on the matter from South Korea and Russia but the issue was unlikely to prove a big stumbling block in the talks. Washington did not otherwise state a clear position on the matter.
The two sides reaffirmed that Pyongyang must dismantle all nuclear weapons and nuclear programs. Ban said, “The nuclear dismantlement we refer to here means the physical destruction of all nuclear facilities,” while a mere nuclear freeze as agreed in 1994 “is not an article of consideration at all.” He added, “This means North Korea must abandon all nuclear weapons and nuclear programs, and even ideas in their heads.” He said North Korea’s 5 mw reactor was also “clearly something to be dismantled.”
As for a timeframe for North Korea to “regain trust” so it can use civilian nuclear energy, Ban said it would take at least two or three years for Pyongyang to dismantle its nuclear programs, and that would represent the process of regaining trust as the country improves transparency through international inspections.
That suggests a gradual and careful South Korean retreat from Chung’s position. From Chung’s statements, you’d think that South Korea would return to the pre-2001 pretense that all was peaceful as steam poured from the stack at Yongbyon. From Ban’s statements, you get the idea that we’re talking about tearing Yongbyon down, but letting the North Koreans keep their x-ray machines and smoke detectors.
Reuters has more insight into the U.S. position, which Hill had thrown into confusion two days ago:
“The issue for some of the partners is whether … North Korea could then reclaim a right to nuclear energy,” Hill said. “If you ask me, it’s not exactly a showstopper issue — the real issue is getting rid of all their nuclear programs.”
In the past, Washington has insisted that even if North Korea scraps its military programs it must give up the right to develop peaceful nuclear power because of fears it could use those programs for building atomic weapons.
But Hill played down North Korea’s demand, which had been the main reason the talks broke down earlier this month after 13 days.
It was a “theoretical, downstream” issue and it would be difficult for North Korea to restart any nuclear development after it scraps its programs under a negotiated deal, he said.
The article also includes the interesting detail that North Korea will not in fact return by the end of August, but in early September, at the earliest. U.S. officials will also be meeting with the Chinese and Japanese in the coming days.
So does this mean I win the lunch bet? The difference between the 29th and the 2nd is only four days. I think a clear win requires at least a week of instransigent or dilatory absence by Pyongyang. This article also suggests that Pyongyang will be using that week to capitalize on the complete abandonment of any pretense that this administration is not engaging in bilateral talks.
Not far off the subject, it’s too bad this place is way out in Alexandria, because the Vietnamese food there is exceptional. Try the skewers.