The Kim Jong Chol Killer File

I try to avoid offering predictions about North Korea, but here is one I’m willing to stake my reputation on: the Kremlinology and palace intrigues over North Korea’s succession struggle will supply generations of plotlines for TV dramas. For the good of us all, and of the North Koreans in particular, pray that all will be filmed on location at Mandsundae.

The good news–for those who seek the regime’s self-subversion, as well as for lovers of Ancient Romans and modern analogies–is that second son Kim Jong Chol is being reported as heir apparent. The bad news is that I still lack solid proof that he’s gay, which would be an early contender for Irony of the Century:

Kim likes 24-year-old Jong Chol because of his circumspect character, the newspaper Chosun Ilbo said, citing unidentified lawmakers who were briefed Friday by the National Intelligence Service.

The eldest son, Jong Nam, 34, who reportedly angered his father in 2001 by trying to enter Japan on a fake passport to visit Tokyo Disneyland, is out of favor and the third son, Jong Un, 21, is considered too young, the paper said.
. . . .

Little is known about Kim’s second son, Jong Chol, except that he studied in Switzerland and is a big fan of American professional basketball.

So little is known that there are no known photographs of Kim Jong Chol outside North Korea, save one of him at age 13 (I’ve since corrected a previous post on this). What else can we learn about Kim Jong Chol? Even Jasper Becker wrote next to nothing about him. Terrence Henry wrote more in The Atlantic Monthly recently:

KIM JONG CHOL: The middle son (born 1981) of Kim Jong Il. His mother was the popular North Korean dancer Ko Yong Hui.

Why he might be the next Dear Leader: Jong Chol’s mother, who died last year, seems to have been the subject of a glorification campaign by the state, which referred to her in recent years as “respected mother,” “great woman,” and “loyal subject to the Dear Leader.” A similar campaign glorified Kim Jong Il’s mother when he prepared to succeed his father. Ko Yong Hui was rumored to have lobbied vigorously in behalf of her son, using her unusually strong influence on Kim Jong Il to secure a place for Jong Chol in the country’s leadership and to banish Kim Jong Il’s own brother-in-law–who had been considered a possible replacement for the Dear Leader–from Pyongyang. (She also reportedly got Kim Jong Il to give up drinking.)

Why he might not be: Kim Jong Il may not like his second son much: the dictator, according to his former sushi chef, who worked for him for more than a decade and has written two books about the experience, has called Jong Chol effeminate and said that he is “no good” because he is “too much like a girl.”

Verdict: Front-runner. In late 2003 someone referred to as Paek Se Bong–which can be interpreted as “the New Peak of Mount Paektu”–was named to Kim Jong Il’s exclusive cabinet, and though there are no published photos of the “New Peak,” some South Korean analysts speculate that it is Jong Chol. Mount Paektu is a sacred mountain in Korean mythology, and is known as Kim Jong Il’s birthplace. Already one peak of the mountain has been named for Kim Jong Il, and so if Jong Chol is indeed the “New Peak,” the moniker could mark him as next in line for the dictatorship. (Another point in Jong Chol’s favor is that when Kim Jong Il was rising through the political ranks, he, too, was known by a secret code name: “the Party Center.”)

This report from Singapore adds some interesting detail about Jong Chol’s life in Berne:

[T]o date only one picture of Mr Kim Jong Il’s second son is available outside North Korea. Taken in 1994, it shows a lanky 13-year-old walking with classmates at the International School of Berne in Switzerland.

He enrolled in the school under a false name with two staff members at the North Korean Embassy – a cleaning lady and a chauffeur – as his parents. Every day, his ‘father’ would bow deferentially when picking him up after school.

MSNBC tells us a bit more of his lifestyle since returning to P’yang:

Kim Jong Chol . . . reputedly enjoys basketball and pool, and drives friends around Pyongyang in a sporty Jaguar sedan. [T]he best description of Jong Chol in early adulthood comes from the family’s former cook, who recalls a lad so enthralled by “The Matrix” that he coveted sunglasses “like the ones Keanu Reeves wore in the movie.

Global Security sees political implications in the fact that he’s not the eldest, and indeed, Kim Jong Nam’s absence must be conspicuous by now:

Kim Jong Chol [Kim Jong Chul], Kim Jong Il’s 23-year-old second son [apparently born around 1981], is currently considered to be the leader’s chosen successor. But a younger son assuming control ahead of the eldest would be a major, and potentially destabilizing, departure from Confucian ethos.
. . . .

Kim Jong-Chol reportedly began work at the propaganda and agitation division of the Workers Party after studying at an international school in the Swiss city of Bern. According to one South Korean magazine report, he is said to be a fan of the US National Basketball Association, and had his father build basketball courts at their villas around the country.

I agree that it could be destabilizing, but I offer another theory. Picture yourself as a North Korean who has seen his country’s dreams of prosperity and unification fail, perhaps realized that the North has been surpassed by the South, watched a supposedly immortal leader die, only to be replaced by a supposed savior whose reign has been one continuous and catastrophic famine. Now, imagine hearing that same regime announce its perpetuation for the life span of another privileged degenerate, and that the chosen heir will outlive you, and perhaps your children and grandchildren. It’s enough to make an unarmed man walk to China.

Clearly, this young man who lacks in assertiveness will end up needing friends, which will make him easy prey for generals and other wiser players of palace intrigues.