Marcus Noland and Stephan Haggard on Food Aid

Thanks to the reader who sent me the link to this piece in the IHT:

Now there are disturbing signs of a return to the command economy, with the revival of food rationing and a ban on trade in grain. There is evidence that the revived public distribution system is again being used as a tool of control, with favored state employees provided with enhanced access to food in preference to the vulnerable populations targeted by the WFP.

The government is reneging on supply-side reforms as well. Reports of grain seizures harken back to previous episodes of severe food distress in North Korea. Far from solving the food problem, these seizures have exacerbated shortages as farmers seek to protect themselves from a predatory state through pre-harvesting, hoarding, tending secret plots and diverting output to illicit markets.

With an improved harvest and aid from the WFP, China and, especially, South Korea, the public distribution system may function in the short-run. But the longer-run effects of the command-and-control approach to food are clear: insecure supply during the next harvest cycle as farmers protect themselves, highly uneven distribution through politically controlled channels, spiraling market prices and hunger.

Although I obviously take issue with the conclusion that harvests have improved, Noland’s own writings repeatedly disclaim the reliability of all statistics coming out of North Korea. All we really know about North Korea’s food situation is that it has rejected one of its major sources of food, and that starving refugees are still fleeing the country.