Mercurial Politics: Korea’s Election Season Has Begun; Hints of an Uri Split and a GNP Insurgent from the Left

It’s really no cause for alarm.

Every Korean election year, the political parties’ festering grudges and tribal feuds, catalyzed by ambition, render the entire Korean political party system unstable. Parties shatter into mercurial gobs, collide, and reform. It has certain advantages over our system, in which party positions tend to ossify for decades. In Korea, the instability of parties means more cutthroat competition in the marketplace of ideas.

The last thing a lame duck needs is another broken leg:

Uri Party lawmakers on Wednesday called for a rethink of the ruling party’s relationship with Cheong Wa Dae after President Rho Moo-hyun a day earlier overrode party objections to nominate controversial lawmaker Rhyu Si-min as his new health minister. The party’s relationship with the presidential office is therefore set to be a core issue in the party leadership contest at its national convention next month. Some fear that deepening conflict between pro- and anti-Rho factions could lead to a breakup of the party.

That bad? Yes, that bad.

Angered by the sudden nomination of a controversial lawmaker to be Korea’s next minister of health, the leadership of the governing Uri Party sent its regrets to President Roh Moo-hyun in response to his invitation to dinner yesterday evening. The cancellation of the dinner, which was originally billed as an occasion for the president and the restive party to discuss the president’s desire to name Rhyu Si-min, an Uri assemblyman, to the health ministry post. But on Wednesday, Mr. Roh preempted any discussion by announcing the nomination.

A reconciliation seems unlikely for the time being:

The party is planning a convention on Feb. 18 to select a permanent leadership – or at least as “permanent” as such jobs are in Korean politics.

Their words, not mine. The “0ld,” pre-1997 conventional wisdom was that Korean voters would punish chaos and reward stability, although I’m not certain that view holds as much water today. Still, the squabbling isn’t likely to look good for Uri going into the May elections, now that its innocent neophyte aura has long since decomposed. Take, for example, this bit of transparent spin:

The Blue House interpreted the cancellation as a good sign. The spokesman there, Kim Man-soo, hailed it as evidence that the party has decided to respect the power of the president to make appointments. “The complications over the cabinet changes appear to have come to the end of the chapter,” he said.

Uri officials had a different interpretation. Kim Young-choon, one aspirant for the permanent party chairmanship, said yesterday, “Uri now has to be able to say “Ëœno’ to the president. I now believe the relationship between the Blue House and the party must be reestablished so we can win public support. I’ll raise this issue at the party’s convention.” Mr. Kim joined 17 other party lawmakers in issuing a statement opposing Mr. Rhyu’s nomination. Another legislator, Ahn Young-keun, demanded an apology from Mr. Roh, but that was milder than his earlier demand that the president resign from the party.

It’s probably no great leap to say that Uri’s future depends on the May elections.

Political analysts are waiting to see what the longer-term effects of the spat will be. Some dismiss the idea of any lasting damage, saying that the whole affair has cooled off rapidly. But with Korea’s unstable political party system in mind, others say there is at least a possibility of a split in the party. Members could also begin a bit early to form their coalitions for the 2007 presidential election campaign.

If anyone is interested in betting against the Yangban’s predictions for this year, place those bets now. Even Kim Jong Il might not want to harm his image by being seen with Roh this year.

Nor is the chaos confined to the Uri Party. The GNP has something of a feud of its own, although on closer examination, it’s not as much cause for excitement:

Grand National Party lawmaker and Supreme Council member Won Hee-ryong bitterly criticized Chairwoman Park Geun-hye in an interview published by the left-leaning weekly Hankyoreh 21 on Wednesday, sparking a potential domestic feud within the major opposition party.

In the interview, Mr. Won, a reformist figure in the predominantly conservative party, described Ms. Park’s staunch opposition to a private school reform bill as an ideological “disease.” Mr. Won said, “The chairwoman’s ideological spectrum is very stiff and narrow. When somebody does not fit into her intolerant ideology for national identity, she considers him a communist. Ms. Park has done nothing but show her own limitations.”

Won, who in the student democracy movement of the 80’s, has a long history of taking on Park Geun-Hye, losing, and coming back to fight again. All of this probably helped make the Hannara-in-Name-Only (HINO) Won a media darling; it’s too bad that his no-questions-asked North Korea aid policy suggests more of what we’ve seen under Roh and DJ. Kim Moon-Soo he ain’t. Consider me a non-fan of both Park and Won. Won’s insurgency doesn’t show much promise thus far.

Ms. Park and the party leadership expressed outrage at Mr. Won, with some hardliners calling for his expulsion from the party. At a party leadership meeting held yesterday, Ms. Park, visibly enraged, said, “Mr. Won made a personal attack on the chair of the party, which is going too far.” She continued, “Mr. Won has been speaking for the governing Uri Party on most issues. So is he saying that the governing party did everything right, while the opposition party did everything wrong?”

However, one of the Grand Nationals’ strong contenders for the party’s presidential candidate nomination, Gyeonggi Governor Sohn Hak-kyu, publicly defended Mr. Won, a leading figure of the party’s relatively young liberal wing that often confronts their leadership, saying, “What we need is tolerance.”

Sohn, another friend of the North Koreans and their bankers in Luxembourg and a HINO, is something of a Lamar Alexander in next year’s presidential stakes. He’s under an ethical and legal cloud as well, for allegations that he took bribes and kickbacks, although in retrospect I may have written him off prematurely.

Regarding the squabble, Mr. Won said yesterday, “I admit that my use of some words was extreme and I clearly apologize for that. However, I haven’t changed my conviction regarding my criticism of the party’s fight against the private school reform bill.”

My guess is that he’ll leave, and he might even take Sohn with him. Their departure would leave them with little choice but to join with other centrists, perhaps with Goh Kun, and would distill the GNP into a more paleoconservative, Confucio-evangelical party.

I’ve been hoping for a split in the GNP would open a battle for its soul and leave something with inter-generational appeal and a deeper commitment to liberal values–like free speech in both Northa and South–in its place. And while the GNP would probably be no worse off without two of its key appeasers, this isn’t the split that’s going to get us there; it’s the shedding of a long-discontented fringe.