Give Me a Mile! Make It Ten!
What Korea really needs is a futures market devoted exclusively to joint North-South projects. A very simple model here is to imagine yourself as a ruthless North Korean tyrant ensconced in an underground lair in Pyongyang, surrounded by his pleasure squad. Then ask yourself, “what’s in it for me?”
Having done this, try to spot the irrational exuberance. If you can, and if that market actually did exist, there would be a beach house in Ko Samui with your name on it:
South Korea will conduct test runs of cross-border railways without guarantees of safe passage from the North Korean military after talks between top brass from both sides collapsed last week. Seoul on Monday proposed fresh working-level military talks about the test scheduled for Thursday, but there has been no response from the North.
That would have been enough for me to mortgage my house and short-sell Peace Train Holdings, Ltd. Such risks tend to end badly, but this one really was the “sure thing” so many bookies have heard about:
North Korea on Wednesday unilaterally called off the planned test run of cross-border railways, a day before it was scheduled.
The North canceled the planned test run citing the absence of military guarantees of safe passage and “unstable conditions in the South,” according to a Unification Ministry official. A government official said it appeared the North’s powerful military stubbornly opposed the plan.
Well, duh. The North Koreans were actually demanding that South Korea agree to renegotiate their Western maritime boundary — presumably on terms that favored the North. A week before an election, no less.
A government official said Pyongyang gave notice on Tuesday afternoon saying “no issue” can be solved without addressing fundamental matters such as preventing military clashes in the West Sea, and it is “unacceptable to seek a military guarantee of safe passages for cross-border railways without mutual agreement. Seoul had earlier said it would ignore the matter and simply notify the North of the passengers who are to travel on the train since the test run was agreed at ministerial level.
I wonder how long before the South Koreans cave. As if they haven’t dishonored the sacrifice of these men enough already….