Is North Korea About to Test a Missile?
It could be nothing, then again ….
TOKYO (Reuters) – North Korea may be preparing to launch a long-range Taepodong ballistic missile that could have the capacity to reach all of the United States, Japanese national broadcaster NHK reported on Friday.
Quoting unidentified South Korean government officials, NHK said satellite pictures showed there have been signs since early this month around a launch site in northeastern North Korea that pointed to a possible firing in the near future.
South Korea’s defense ministry said it could not confirm the report. Japanese officials have not commented.
The missile appeared to be the Taepodong-2, which has the longest range in North Korea’s arsenal, and if it is a modified version it may have a range of 15,000 km (9,300 miles), which would cover all of the United States, NHK said.
Quoting Japanese government sources, Japan’s Kyodo news agency also said a launch could be imminent.
I’d struggled with my Internet connection today as I tried to find a few minutes to blog the NYT story today, but this adds some context.
I’ve been saying for a few years now if the North really wanted to turn the heat up for negociations, it would test fire another ICBM as it did in 1998.
The only thing I could think really holding them back was pressure from China and weaker pressure from SK.
Firing an ICBM would cause a crap storm, which the North likes as a negociating tool, but it would put China and SK’s refusal to get tough on them in a weak position. It would turn the heat up on China and SK to either show they will not pressure NK significantly no matter what or apply such pressure.
If that is true, then the ICBM test question has been one of how much NK is hurting at present vs how much flax it would take from China and SK vs how much those two will continue to make sure NK does not collapse at any cost.
With the pressure the US has put on the North the last few months, and the signs it will continue to get tougher, and signs SK will do anything the North wants, Pyongyang might had calculated there isn’t enough to lose to warrant not using one of its biggest pressure points.