Mercurial Politics, Part 1: The Center
Every Korean election year, the political parties’ festering grudges and tribal feuds, catalyzed by ambition, render the entire Korean political party system unstable. Parties shatter into mercurial gobs, collide, and reform.
The first test tube hit the laboratory floor today:
Goh Kun made it clear on Thursday that he intended to run for the presidency, and the reaction in political circles has been swift. Especially with the Uri Party in disarray after its drubbing in local elections on Wednesday, analysts are expecting some wholesale realignments in Korea’s political parties, which are unstable even in the calmest of times.
So what will Goh’s platform be? What will he call his new party?
Goh, who is seen as a man of the middle, vowed to play “a leading role in bringing those who seek centrist reform and political pragmatism together. He told the source recently he intended to unite these centrist forces by establishing a national coalition.
A likely name is The National Coalition of Hope. Goh is likely to announce his candidacy for the presidential race next year at an event to launch the coalition, the source said. But the former PM is reportedly adamant that it is not a new political party but rather a public movement led by non-politicians like experts in different areas.
Goh says the coalition will work with centrists from whatever party. Goh is said to have had a series of meetings with politicians from the Uri Party, the Millennium Democratic Party and others to discuss the coalition.
You know, the problem with being a non-politician is that you lose that status the moment you run for high office. Who else remembers the excitement about Chong Mong-Joon? My wife still hisses venom about Kim Jong-Pil. More recently, the People’s Central Party, renamed the People First Party, tried to be a regionally oriented kingmaker. The GNP pulverized it at the polls Tuesday. Centrist politicians in Korea have a long history of trying to maneuver themselves into the “balancer” role, but they never win. Korean voters aren’t attracted to moderation. Middle-aged and older Korean voters are attracted to stability, which is not the same thing. Somewhat contradictorily, Korean voters also tend to be attracted to politicians who seem decisive, certain, and uncompromising. Having “radical” views is one way to cultivate that kind of image.
I predict that Goh Kun’s magic spell will be broken as soon as he’s forced to articulate some actual positions and raise funds for a campaign. I’m not saying I don’t like Goh; I don’t really know anything about him yet. I’m not saying he won’t be a factor in the next election; Korean elections are exceptionally unpredictable, and un-cola candidates tend to linger right up to Election Day, just as they do here. I’m saying that Goh Kun’s only constituency is people who know more and like less about the other options (which is why the conservative oppositon Grand National Party is reacting with immediate hostility). I question the potential for an Uri-Lite non-party to build a winning political base. And of course, Korea’s election laws may present some barriers to the political fiction of Goh Kun’s group not being a party.
Some Uri moderates have already signed on with Goh, but they’ll eventually have to give up one or the other. The winner’s bet is that they’ll leap from the Uri ashcan before it’s deposited on the ash heap.