Please, Please, Please Test It!

Plenty of people have asked me if Kim Jong Il will test a long-range Taepodong II missile, and really, I have no more idea that anyone else this side of the Taedong. On one hand, the North Koreans are desperate for some attention. They’re running out of money and friends, and they’ve added liquid fuel to a rocket, that’s corrosive to the fuel and oxidizer tanks and is thus more than an empty gesture. On the other hand, North Korea has a recent history of pulling back from provocations when they’re informed that there will be consequences. Will this time be different? I have no clue.

I only know that I want the North Koreans to launch the damn thing, because it will focus plenty of minds that have let themselves hold a fairly immature view of North Korea so far, and because it will further strengthen the arguments of those — like me! — who see no redeeming this regime and want it strangled by the collective action of every responsible nation on earth. A missile test will propel more than a few tons of recycled plowshares into the ocean. It will propel North Korea’s belligerence, irrationality, and disregard for human life onto Page One everywhere on earth.

Oh, and it will probably mean more traffic. Traffic is always nice.

Then, there’s a possibility I’d brought up to my wife, even before I saw this:

The Pentagon spokesman hinted to reporters that if North Korea launches a missile the United States might use its new missile defense system.”

The United States does have a limited missile defense system. I will not get into or discuss any specific alert status or capabilities,” added Whitman.

The U.S. Missile Defense system relies on radars and other systems on the ground and on satellites to detect missile launches and deploy interceptors to shoot them down. The system has had some successful tests, and some failures, and is not yet fully operational.

Well, that’s focus for you. North Korea launches its missile, and every nation within splashing distance would have a vivid illustration of why it ought to reserve itself a spot under Uncle Sam’s big blue umbrella. It would be a 20-year earthquake in favor of U.S. geopolitical power in the region. If nations signed on to a U.S. missile shield in droves, China would stand to lose the benefit of a decade of intricate iron fist/silk glove diplomacy. Finally, imagine the psychological shock inside North Korea when word filters in (it would) that the nation’s pride, for which millions went to hungry graves, had been rendered impotent by Yankee defenses. (Imagine, for that matter, the shock to us if the interceptor failed!). All of which means that launching a missile would be incalculably stupid on North Korea’s part.

Which has never stopped them before. So please, please, please, just launch the thing without further delay, k?