The Great Famine Has Begun; Discontent Rises

At least since 2000 when we began providing assistance to the North, no one there has been starving to death.

— UniFiction Minister Lee Jong-Seok

The first reports have emerged from North Korea of food refugees on the move due to a sudden deterioration in food supplies. Several of the reports are accompanied by remarkable photographs, including this one, which shows one man bringing food back into North Korea from China.

Mr. Lee Hyun Soo (46) who crossed the Tumen River on 15 May said, “It is hard to endure day by day”.

Mr. Lee, head of a household of four said, “Rumors of people going to China and South Korea go around. I tried not to cross the border, but I did because of my family members who are starving”. He complained, “The government have been acting like they would give us food for a long time, but they deceived us”.

Recently, North Koreans who cannot make their ends meet like Mr. Lee started to cross the Tumen River again. The reporter met 5 North Koreans including Mr. Lee. They met with the reporter at a secret place in Yanji, and expressed strong discontents about the situation of food shortage in North Korea and the policy regarding food distribution system.

Mr. Choi Young Nam (37) said, “I have been waiting since the 1st of April. I know that there are even less rice in spring, so where would the rice come from? They cannot deceive us like this”. Mr. Choi said. “In January and February, rice for 2~3 days were given to the old and supporting families. After that, we bought the rice at Jangmadang price at the distribution center”.

One unemployed steel worker added:

“The situation is similar to the situation at the end of food shortage in 1998. The number of people who come to China will increase soon. People at the border area know that why they are so poor because they are involved in trade with Chineses. All they have in their heart is anger”.

Unlke the situation in the 1990’s, this time people are also hungry in the interior and near the DMZ. Most of the millions who died in the last famine lived in the Northeast; this time, the Northeast, stripped of its “excess” population, has learned to cope by bringing food back from China.

The Daily NK also reports a sharp rise in food prices:

In mid May, the price of rice in North Pyongan province was 1,300 won ($0.43) a 1kg. Compared to the price in May 2005, it rose 500 won ($0.17). In Jangmadang, there is a rumor that rice will rise to 2,000 won ($0.67), so it seems that it’s just a matter of time before rice becomes more expensive.

The reason for the rising cost of rice is simple: a lack of rice. The rice stored in Autumn has begun to run out and there are not enough edible plants to go around. North Korea calls this period the Spring Austerity Season. This period is the hardest season for North Koreans.

The average wage of North Koreans is 3,000 won ($1). To be more exact, it means that 4 family members have to live off of 1.5kg of rice a month. Everybody struggles to survive by doing business, digging up edible plants, getting help from relatives living in China, and selling scrap iron.

In response, the North Korean government is doing what you’d expect — imposing draconian control measures and mass-mobilization. One of the most disastrous measures is the setting up of roadblocks to prevent food from being moved from place to place. The idea, apparently, is to stop the black marketing of food, but the effect is to prevent food from getting to areas where supplies are more limited. The measures are highly unpopular.

According to the mobilization of “˜70 Days Rice-Planting Combat’, all general residents can travel only with a “˜travel permission’ issued by state owned enterprises. If being caught by the National Security Agency while traveling without travel permission, they are taken to designated farms by the National Security Agency and in their living areas and for more than a week, they have to do forced works’.

Mr. Kang living in Chongjin, North Hymkyung Province said that, “As being caught by the National Security Agency, being taken to farms is a lucky case. “An unfortunate case is to having a stigma as an “˜example’, and getting laboring punishment”. He added that, “Now, travel permission for visits to relatives, wedding, and passing-away was stopped to be issued and only some Foreign Currency corporations issue travel permission. Now only working for rice-planting in rice fields makes us feel comfortable”.

. . . .
He outpoured his opinion that, “The force mobilization is for whom? Because of it, workers can not purchase any food, salespeople can not survive by being prohibited doing business, and students can not study”¦ farm managers just take care of their own fields and all farming works are passed on to the mobilized people. We can not figure out for whom we are mobilized on earth”.

A fourth Daily NK report, which quotes these recent senior defectors, predicts that the regime won’t avoid political consequences this time:

A former official for the Science Department of (North) Korea Workers’ Party who applied for asylum in South Korea said in an interview with the Japanese media, “It has become much freer in ideology. It is about time to explode.”

The North Korean defector is the highest-known official in the field of science and technology to defect. He said, “North Koreans started to publicly criticize the regime. Even doctors and members of the Party make decisions to defect for their lives. It seems like a big change will occur in North Korea.”

Contrary to my predictions, the South Koreans did not manage to muzzle these two people. The reporter, who interviewed a number of refugees and traders, sees signs of a broader breakdown in the government’s authority:

Food shortages changed North Korean society. Governmental bodies such as the National Security Agency and the Ministry of the People’s Armed Forces have lost their moral authority and dignity. They are rather recognized as corrupt bodies which exploit the people. However, accusations of corruption are not isolated to government bodies. In North Korean society right now, the phiolosophy of “there is nothing that can’t be done with money, and nothing that can be done without money” is widespread.

A North Korean trader in Dandong, China says, “North Korea is not a socialist state. Where you can do anything with money is not a socialist state.” With money, a prisoner can be released.

Soldiers steal food from people everyday. Any livestock seen are slaughtered and food for food. Violence is exerted in case of resistance.

The excessive slaughtering of livestock is another possible indication of famine.

The military protects farms which belongs to an ethnic Chinese who have cultivated land obtained through bribery. They receive rice in return. The military has become a protector of ethnic Chinese over North Koreans.

A noticeable change in recent years is that people have lost the desire to become (North) Korea Workers’ Party members. Money is what matters, and there is no reason to put in a number of years to become a member of the Party. Naturally, people do not respect the Party.

According to the report, Kim Jong Il’s personal unpopularity, lifestyle, and girth are suddenly topics of conversation. The bearish sentiment on the regime’s future isn’t just shared by refugees:

An ethnic Chinese who has been observing North Korean society says, “if the U.S pressures North Korea, it might take one year. If they don’t, it will take two years. It is only a matter of time until North Korea collapses.”

We can only hope, since predictions like this aren’t new. I’ve personally been making them for a decade, although there’s a good argument that this time, North Koreans do appear to know more about the outside, and their government is less well equipped and funded to deal with dissent or resistance.

All pictures from the Daily NK.