I May Have Figured This Out…

Why North Korea willfully pissed off the whole world by launching a rocket, that is.

It’s a wrinkle on the “domestic consumption” theory: The regime is in desperate shape and is about to make some kind of face-losing concession, such as asking for food aid or agreeing to give up some weapon or activity. Kim Jong Il needed a garish display of belligerence to save face — to tell his people that any aid is really an extortion payment, or that any deal was being forced on his enemies.

There’s a history for this. When the North Koreans accepted international food aid in the 1990’s, they told their people that it was a “reparation” won by the intimidating power of their military. In fact, that’s the plot premise behind North Korea’s most popular political novel (believe it), “Barrel of a Gun.”

(Oranckay would very much like to translate this book someone would give him the grant to do it).

It’s also consistent with the known facts. The present food situation is desperate. For that matter, so is the regime’s financial situation.

It’s only a theory, but the more I think about it, the more it adds up.
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