Another Missile Test?
South Korean and the U.S. intelligence authorities have detected suspicious vehicle movements in and out of North Korea’s major missile test site, a government source here said Sunday.
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“Military intelligence officials have spotted movements by several large vehicles in the North’s Gitdaeryeong area,” the source spoke on condition of anonymity. “They don’t rule out the possibility that it is part of preparations for additional missile tests.”
Officials at South Korea’s foreign and defense ministries have said that North Korea may take additional provocative steps including either missile launches or a nuclear test. This may be timed with a summit between South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun and his American counterpart George W. Bush in Washington in the middle of this month.
I agree with Mr. Downs that Kim Jong Il likely viewed the last ICBM test as an embarrasment. If the US had not successfully tested its interceptor, I think Kim might have been satisfied with saying it was meant to self-destruct so early. But, now, I think even if he didn’t take it as an embarrassment then – he does now. He will view the US test and success as the US making fun of him, and he will “have to” launch another ICBM – sometime within months.
If he does not, then I would seriously consider that their missile development is a good bit behind what we had thought – meaning one seroius contender for why he did not test another ICBM is that he feared the same result a 2nd time due to a failure in missile design or whatnot: that his missiles are too poor in quality to risk testing again even if he feels embarrassed.
But, I think based on what we think we know, his missiles are good enough for at least a test, and he will fire one up.
If he does, and it is as close to being a dud as the last one — expect his missile program to be set back even further — due to the fact he will probably have some key members of the development team killed.
At least that’s my guess….
Its as if KJI knows that a nuke test is going too far, or atleast its too soon for one. He miht test a missile instead, knowing its a provocation but a much more acceptable one than a nuke test. It shows they are pissed off about the real failure if the last test: making the US come to the table and may try again.