Dream On
Our prayers are answered! China may back a coup against Kim Jong Il! Whoopie. As if. Can I say for sure? Nope. But I smell a bong hit being passed my way.
Our prayers are answered! China may back a coup against Kim Jong Il! Whoopie. As if. Can I say for sure? Nope. But I smell a bong hit being passed my way.
Why so skeptical? Like any client state, we have to assume that China has a roster of potential NK leaders that they would prefer to see at the helm in DPRK rather than KJI. Obviously, it’s a bit complicated due to the personality cult thingy, but I am sure the Chinese are into the NK intrigues and court politicals like no ones business.
I don’t know, it could be a win-win solution if China could arrange for another “train accident” then a quick conference call with the top DPRK brass to let them know “…here’s what we’re gonna do fellas, and ya better get on board”. It’s possible to my mind, and there’s plenty of historical precident for this sort of thing, n’est pas? I mean, it seems like western intelligence assests in NK are almost nil, whereas China probably has spies everywhere down there.
Hell, they could prop up an ethic Chinese as the new NK leader and we’d never tell the difference! (I don’t mean anything racist, but am rather trying to point out how clueless the average westerner is about the region).
I wouldn’t dismiss it quickly either.
North Korea is scared right now. They are acting like something huge is up – something that threatens them – whether external or internal or both – but what that something is remains unclear.
I’ve already said I think their actions the last few months are signs that Pyongyang believes they are going to be brought to the brink of death sometime in the near future (1 to 2 years), and they are trying to warn everybody they still have mighty power (whether the US (and China) or internal sources of potential rebellion).
If China were smart, they would be thinking about what regime is in power next, and China seems to be smart like that. If the US were smart, it would be broaching this question with China and letting China know it expects to work smarter within the international community rather than repeat the past where communist and capitalist America backed extremes.
The US should be thinking of ways to “invite” China into a resolution of a NK fall that includes unification (on South Korean terms) — especially since the US seems to be heading for the door in South Korea already.
If South Korea didn’t have its head stuck so far up its own and KJI’s bum, they would be working to get Japan, the US, and China into agreement on a unified Korea plan that kept the 3 big guys at least somewhat substantially working together (finacially) on a unified Korea while keeping any big three rivalries to a minimum. It would be a tall order, but South Korea is a vital link in that chain…
….but they have completely given up any prayer they can have influence toward such a unification in favor of an “avoid collapse at all costs” approach – when they do not have the resources to keep NK afloat at all costs.
This will go down as one of the big blunders a small(er) state has made in history when they could have actually given a good try at balancing out powers by triangulating them and what not. Instead, they tried “balancing” them out by pissing on them all. —— The year of “Japan-ROK Friendship” was a smashing success, no?
usinkorea:
“…they could have actually given a good try at balancing out powers by triangulating them and what not”
Well, you’re right, but I think Kim Sr. and Kim Jr. did a pretty good job all things considered. Time just caught up to them in a very real sense: there is no heir apparent to continue this dynasty (at least there’s not enough time to groom Kim Jung Il’s second son).
I don’t pretend to be an expert on DPRK, but it seems it took a better part of Kim Il Sung’s life to groom his poofy-haired seedling. Kim Jung Il’s now, what? About 60-something? China sees quite clearly that once KJI goes, so goes the regime (i.e. hard landing, with nasty fights over succession between Army Groups, various Ministries, take your pick of the elite power groups). Maybe China saw this 20 years ago when Kim Sr. still hadn’t fully groomed a son who was then over 40 years old and considered a joke…that’s not how you instill loyality in the troops.
Still, Kim Sr. did what he could, and Kim Jr. now seems like a chip off the ‘ol crazy block, so I am sure Daddy is proud. I don’t have the stats to back it up, but it seems to me that through history, it’s tough to do a “three-peat” with royal succession, so mabye the Kim’s were doomed for the third generation handover anyway.
Be that as it may, we have a pudgy and probably very unhealthy Kim Jr. with 5-10 years to live, tops (I work in a hospital, trust me) and with no viable or visible heir. That’s bad news for him, but an even worse situation for China who faces the fallout (pun intended)
usinkorea…
Sorry, I realize now you meant South Korea as the “smaller state”. I’ve stopped drinking now so it won’t happen again 😉