Must Read: International Crisis Group on N. Korean Refugees
It’s probably the most comprehensive and detailed report I’ve yet seen on the subject, and from a non-partisan and balanced group. The most immediately relevant point is that things could soon get much worse:
Even without a strong response to the 9 October 2006 nuclear test that targets the North’s economy, the internal situation could soon get much worse. The perfect storm may be brewing for a return to famine in the North. Last year, Pyongyang reintroduced the same public distribution system for food that collapsed in the 1990s and rejected international humanitarian assistance, demanding instead unmonitored development help. Funding for remaining aid programs is difficult to secure, and summer floods have damaged crops and infrastructure.
It’s a long pdf, and well worth reading, although I do disagree with the point that follows, which is that most refugees flee because they’re hungry rather than for political reasons. There is evidence to the contrary, of course; a good number of refugees do in fact seek freedom, although they don’t necessarily find as much as they expect. Yet I accept the point that “most” flee for reasons that are superficially economic, although their hunger derives from the low rationing priority that accompanies the political classification assigned to them.
No one wants the burden of sanctions to be borne by the North Korean people. Preventing that will require an international response — as with the coordinated international response to the nuclear test — that forces North Korea to accept monitored food aid. The other alternative, which Pyongyang would certainly not want, should be the creation of feeding/refuge stations on its borders.