Of Tin-Pot Crises, and Real Ones

U.N. Resolution 1695, passed after North Korea’s missile tests, demanded that countries exercise “vigilance” to be certain that their money wasn’t paying for more missiles.  South Korea adopted a “don’t ask, don’t tell” approach and continued as if nothing had changed.  It even had another illegal payments-to-North Korea  kerfuffle (“I apologize for the illegal remittance issue, which was caused by mismatch between law and reality” — a real classic).  The focii of all these legal and ethical evasions are Kumgang and Kaesong, the latter being famous mostly for tin pots and slave labor.

Saturday’s Resolution 1718, passed in the wake of a nuke test, has tighter language (“ensure that any funds, financial assets or economic resources are prevented from being made available by their nationals or by any persons or entities within their territories”).  Any wiggle room in there?  Yes!

Seoul believes the inter-Korean Kaesong Industrial Complex and package tours to North Korea’s Mt. Kumgang are not subject to a ban of transferring money to the North under a UN Security Council resolution passed Saturday, a senior official here said. The official on Sunday insisted there “needs to be evidence that the two inter-Korean projects are directly involved in North Korea’s development of weapons of mass destruction.

Which leads us to our intervention. 

Senior U.S. and Japanese officials are headed for Seoul this week for talks on North Korea, the Foreign Ministry said yesterday. Coming after Pyongyang’s apparent nuclear test and new UN sanctions about which the Korean government seems ambivalent, the talks may also be a forum for the two more hawkish allies to press for a tougher stance by Seoul toward its neighbor to the north.

U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice is scheduled to arrive on Thursday for a meeting of the foreign ministers of Japan, Korea and the United States. Christopher Hill, Washington’s envoy to the six-party talks, is expected here today as the advance man for the secretary’s visit and for talks with his counterpart, Chun Young-woo, the ministry said.
After senior U.S. officials used the Sunday political talk shows to stress the importance of compliance with UN sanctions, more of the same is expected from Ms. Rice during her swing through Tokyo, Seoul and Beijing.

In a somewhat unusual arrangement, Ms. Rice will meet Taro Aso, Japan’s foreign minister, in Tokyo and then both will come to Seoul for meetings with Foreign Minister Ban Ki-moon on Thursday. Coupled with the less than enthusiastic embrace of sanctions by Seoul and Beijing, the scheduling seems to support observers’ speculation that Mr. Ban will hear urging to cooperate more enthusiastically with UN sanctions.

What is delectable about this is that Ban is already confirmed as U.N. General Secretary.  Two member states’ foreign ministers are  now headed to visit the next  U.N. General Secretary to try to persuade him and his country  to comply with U.N. resolutions in good faith.  Might this be a sign of things to come with Ban, the U.N., and North Korea?  One point that makes me cringe here is how this U.S.-Japanese initiative will play in the South Korean press.

And all of this, as rumors swirl that North Korea is about to test another nuke.  Oh, and we have another classic from the KCNA:

“The resolution cannot be construed otherwise than a declaration of a war” against the North, also known as the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.

The North warned it “wants peace but is not afraid of war” and that it would “deal merciless blows” against anyone who violates its sovereignty.

The communist nation “had remained unfazed in any storm and stress in the past when it had no nuclear weapons,” the statement said. “It is quite nonsensical to expect the DPRK to yield to the pressure and threat of someone at this time when it has become a nuclear weapons state.”

I’m personally hoping for as many tests as Kim Jong Il can manage.  Each one tested is another one that won’t be used, or sold.  On that latter subject, here is yet another call, this one from Charles Krauthammer, via GI Korea, to restore deterrence to the trafficking in WMD’s.

A good first draft, but it could use some Kennedyesque clarity. The phrase “fully accountable” does not exactly instill fear, as it has been used promiscuously by several administrations in warnings to both terrorists and rogue states — after which we did absolutely nothing. A better formulation would be the following:

Given the fact that there is no other nuclear power so recklessly in violation of its nuclear obligations, it shall be the policy of this nation to regard any detonation of a nuclear explosive on the United States or its allies as an attack by North Korea on the United States requiring a full retaliatory response upon North Korea.

Well, crap.  I suppose I’m of the mind that some clarity in advance is the best way to prevent such an event, but really, we’ve drawn so many red lines, and North Korea has hardly paused before crossing any of them.